*My take on your debate*:
1. *Bull case for TP1*: 4h signal + 15m momentum + tight ATR = classic squeeze setup. If 3.77 holds, shorts get liquidated fast up to 4.02. 6.7% move with SL ∼9% = clean RR if you DCA entry.
2. *Fakeout risk*: Daily bearish trend is gravity. Without volume reclaim above 4.19, 4.02 could be wick city then dump back to 3.4. 73% confidence on 4h means 27% it fails.
Key level to watch: 3.4278. Lose that = thesis dead. Flip 4.19 = trend shift.
You already in, or waiting for 3.75 retest?
1. *Bull case for TP1*: 4h signal + 15m momentum + tight ATR = classic squeeze setup. If 3.77 holds, shorts get liquidated fast up to 4.02. 6.7% move with SL ∼9% = clean RR if you DCA entry.
2. *Fakeout risk*: Daily bearish trend is gravity. Without volume reclaim above 4.19, 4.02 could be wick city then dump back to 3.4. 73% confidence on 4h means 27% it fails.
Key level to watch: 3.4278. Lose that = thesis dead. Flip 4.19 = trend shift.
You already in, or waiting for 3.75 retest?