Staring at this line—$M —the most glaring part isn’t the 24 hours of -21.19%. It’s that after it plunged from 1.0627 to 0.6555, even the rebound couldn’t hold above the 0.80 area.
Calling this a “washout” is basically just coming up with reasons to justify one’s long positions. This sudden selloff divergence is very clear: the dip-buyers are betting on a violent repair, while the shorts are betting liquidity will keep collapsing. But structurally, after a long bearish candle breaks support, the faster the rebound, the more it looks like liquidating positions—not a real repair.
If 0.6555 breaks again, then what follows is further cascading selling. Only if it can reclaim and hold back above 0.82–0.85—stabilizing there—can this be considered short-term bleeding control.
My position is simple: until it stands back above that level, $M is still weak; any rebound should be treated only as a rebound.
$M
#盘面分析 #技术分析 #Trading Plan
Calling this a “washout” is basically just coming up with reasons to justify one’s long positions. This sudden selloff divergence is very clear: the dip-buyers are betting on a violent repair, while the shorts are betting liquidity will keep collapsing. But structurally, after a long bearish candle breaks support, the faster the rebound, the more it looks like liquidating positions—not a real repair.
If 0.6555 breaks again, then what follows is further cascading selling. Only if it can reclaim and hold back above 0.82–0.85—stabilizing there—can this be considered short-term bleeding control.
My position is simple: until it stands back above that level, $M is still weak; any rebound should be treated only as a rebound.
$M
#盘面分析 #技术分析 #Trading Plan