The myth of Bitcoin’s “largest buyer” is shattered: Strategy’s mNAV falls below 1 for the first time—its 847,363 BTC holdings become a burden
Today, Strategy’s mNAV (enterprise value divided by the market value of its BTC holdings) fell below 1 for the first time during intraday trading, hitting a low of 0.98.
For a time, Strategy’s “financing flywheel” was hailed as a brilliant move—its stock price rises, it issues debt to finance purchases of Bitcoin, and then the elevated buying pushes the stock price even higher. The key condition for the loop to keep working is that mNAV must stay far above 1, so the market is willing to buy into the story. Now the premium has evaporated, and the flywheel is stuck.
The consequences are direct. The common stock fell to $82.16, wiping out more than 80% compared with the November 2024 peak. Preferred shares (STRC) dropped to $71.40, a 26% discount versus the $100 par value—so much so that even creditors don’t believe it will be able to repay. More dangerously, with the premium gone, the channel for low-cost financing is blocked, while the annual $1.2 billion in preferred-share dividends is still greedily consuming the remaining $1.4 billion cash.
Ironically, the drop in mNAV below 1 creates an arbitrage opportunity. If you pay $0.98 to buy MSTR stock, you can indirectly get $1 worth of Bitcoin exposure. Savvy players are already shorting MSTR while buying spot Bitcoin, calmly capturing that 2% discount. That could bring short-term buying pressure to the Bitcoin market, but ultimately it’s like quenching thirst with poison. Once the arbitrage spread is flattened, the underlying problem remains.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse went straight after it on CNBC, saying STRC’s plunge is a “strong indictment” of Strategy’s strategy. Imitators have also collapsed in unison: Japan’s Metaplanet’s mNAV slid to 0.9, and its stock price is down 70% from its high. Nakamoto’s mNAV also fell to 0.92. The “corporate treasury” model games appear to be over at once.
Strategy CEO Phong Le once suggested that if mNAV falls below 1, the company might consider selling Bitcoin. Now the prediction has come true: the former “largest buyer” is sliding toward becoming the “potential largest seller.”
#比特币下探58000美元 #strategy $BTC
Today, Strategy’s mNAV (enterprise value divided by the market value of its BTC holdings) fell below 1 for the first time during intraday trading, hitting a low of 0.98.
For a time, Strategy’s “financing flywheel” was hailed as a brilliant move—its stock price rises, it issues debt to finance purchases of Bitcoin, and then the elevated buying pushes the stock price even higher. The key condition for the loop to keep working is that mNAV must stay far above 1, so the market is willing to buy into the story. Now the premium has evaporated, and the flywheel is stuck.
The consequences are direct. The common stock fell to $82.16, wiping out more than 80% compared with the November 2024 peak. Preferred shares (STRC) dropped to $71.40, a 26% discount versus the $100 par value—so much so that even creditors don’t believe it will be able to repay. More dangerously, with the premium gone, the channel for low-cost financing is blocked, while the annual $1.2 billion in preferred-share dividends is still greedily consuming the remaining $1.4 billion cash.
Ironically, the drop in mNAV below 1 creates an arbitrage opportunity. If you pay $0.98 to buy MSTR stock, you can indirectly get $1 worth of Bitcoin exposure. Savvy players are already shorting MSTR while buying spot Bitcoin, calmly capturing that 2% discount. That could bring short-term buying pressure to the Bitcoin market, but ultimately it’s like quenching thirst with poison. Once the arbitrage spread is flattened, the underlying problem remains.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse went straight after it on CNBC, saying STRC’s plunge is a “strong indictment” of Strategy’s strategy. Imitators have also collapsed in unison: Japan’s Metaplanet’s mNAV slid to 0.9, and its stock price is down 70% from its high. Nakamoto’s mNAV also fell to 0.92. The “corporate treasury” model games appear to be over at once.
Strategy CEO Phong Le once suggested that if mNAV falls below 1, the company might consider selling Bitcoin. Now the prediction has come true: the former “largest buyer” is sliding toward becoming the “potential largest seller.”
#比特币下探58000美元 #strategy $BTC