REALISTIC MACRO ANALYSIS of #BTC
Take a close look at the chart I’m sending as an attachment with my indicators, #BTC —monthly. On the daily and weekly time frames, we’re at the bottom of the channels: MACD is below the zero line and far below the 200-day moving average. By losing these time frames, the strong indication is the monthly one, and the macro doesn’t lie. It’s almost certain the asset will move toward the monthly support where it is oversold, the 2023 levels—and then there’s nowhere else left to fall from there, and that’s when the turnaround starts gradually upward.
My forecast is that by October and a little beyond—which also coincides with the elections—we’ll have some months of decline until hitting the monthly support between 20 and 30 thousand usdc. Look at the monthly chart I’m sending where the POC is and where most of the trading has taken place.
Pay very close attention and don’t get carried away by talk like “take advantage now, this is the opportunity.” Be very careful—the market is different from the past cycles. If you notice, BTC has been rising consistently since 2022. In this last cycle, with the entry of institutions and the thousands of new coins added every day with the money spread across them, it was more than natural that the market would no longer be the same. Look at how many people believed that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year we would have an altseason. Social media, the biggest crypto influencers—almost everyone guaranteed an altseason. And look what happened: there was no altseason at all—and, in fact, a brutal manipulation on October 10, 2025, when institutions took advantage of the millions of long positions in futures to, in an unprecedented and terrifying move, wipe out billions in just a few minutes.
It was more than natural for the crypto market to correct on the macro level—in the monthly chart.
Pay very close attention and don’t let yourselves be swayed by what most people say.
Take a close look at the chart I’m sending as an attachment with my indicators, #BTC —monthly. On the daily and weekly time frames, we’re at the bottom of the channels: MACD is below the zero line and far below the 200-day moving average. By losing these time frames, the strong indication is the monthly one, and the macro doesn’t lie. It’s almost certain the asset will move toward the monthly support where it is oversold, the 2023 levels—and then there’s nowhere else left to fall from there, and that’s when the turnaround starts gradually upward.
My forecast is that by October and a little beyond—which also coincides with the elections—we’ll have some months of decline until hitting the monthly support between 20 and 30 thousand usdc. Look at the monthly chart I’m sending where the POC is and where most of the trading has taken place.
Pay very close attention and don’t get carried away by talk like “take advantage now, this is the opportunity.” Be very careful—the market is different from the past cycles. If you notice, BTC has been rising consistently since 2022. In this last cycle, with the entry of institutions and the thousands of new coins added every day with the money spread across them, it was more than natural that the market would no longer be the same. Look at how many people believed that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year we would have an altseason. Social media, the biggest crypto influencers—almost everyone guaranteed an altseason. And look what happened: there was no altseason at all—and, in fact, a brutal manipulation on October 10, 2025, when institutions took advantage of the millions of long positions in futures to, in an unprecedented and terrifying move, wipe out billions in just a few minutes.
It was more than natural for the crypto market to correct on the macro level—in the monthly chart.
Pay very close attention and don’t let yourselves be swayed by what most people say.