The Ethereum premium index on Coinbase turns negative, raising fears of panic selling by whales.
Ethereum (eth) is expected to end December in the red, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline. This scenario may put pressure on large investors who have been accumulating eth throughout the year.
If eth continues to decline, these holders must decide between exiting at breakeven or accepting losses.
How did Ethereum whales end up between breakeven and losses in December?
Data on the unrealized profit ratio for eth whales, tracking addresses holding between 1,000 and over 100,000 eth, indicates a continuous decline over the past four months.
The ratio has approached zero, indicating that major investors in eth have an average cost close to the current market price, with few or no unrealized gains remaining.
From a positive perspective, the buying behavior of this group strongly influences market trends. This reinforces confidence that current prices represent an opportunity. Continued accumulation at these levels suggests a potential bottom zone for eth accumulation.
Cryptoquant analyst cw8900 stated that they have not made profits this cycle and continue to increase their holdings, which means the current price range represents an opportunity to buy eth at the lowest possible price.
Nevertheless, the bearish perspective raises a critical question: what happens if the market continues its downward trend for another four months? In this case, whale investors would face actual losses. Two factors suggest that this scenario remains possible.
Two factors are driving Ethereum whales to take action in December.
First, the Ethereum premium index on Coinbase recorded a negative value in the third week of December.
This indicator measures the percentage difference between eth prices on Coinbase Pro (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair). A negative value indicates that prices on Coinbase are lower, reflecting selling pressure from American investors.
After filtering out noise using a 30-day exponential moving average, the indicator has remained negative for over a month. If selling pressure escalates from Coinbase, eth prices may decline further in the coming days.
The second factor stems from decreased interest from individual investors. Activities on the eth blockchain hit their lowest levels of the year in December.
A chart showing the number of active eth sending addresses clearly illustrates a downward trend. Activities on the network have significantly slowed. In the absence of buying pressure from individual investors, eth struggles to align with institutional demand for a new breakout.
Crypto on Chain commented that "the lack of participation from individual investors may limit short-term gains, as individual inflows usually drive momentum during the early stages of recovery."
The realized price for eth accumulation addresses serves as a major support line at around $3,000. Eth is currently trading near $2,800, and it appears poised to break this support level.
These factors place whales in a position that may require them to act. Selling to recoup capital or limit losses could increase downward pressure. Such moves could even trigger panic selling at the institutional level.
Despite these risks, a recent report from Bitwise stated that it maintains an optimistic outlook for 2026. The report suggests that eth prices could reach new all-time highs sooner than expected.