Tags: $ETH #ETH #Ethereum #DollarCostAveraging #ahr999 #量化分析

In the crypto world, Bitcoin's AHR999 indicator is almost a Bible for dollar-cost averaging. It has helped countless people increase their holdings in panic and take profits in frenzy.

But one problem is becoming increasingly obvious:

AHR999 is designed for Bitcoin, but is directly applied to Ethereum ($ETH ). Is this really the optimal solution?

BTC is driven by 'halving + consensus', while ETH has long evolved into a vast ecosystem with DeFi, L2, and staking economy. Therefore, based on the underlying logic of AHR999, I ran massive data and finally created a dedicated new cycle indicator for ETH.

💎 EHR999 (Ethereum Value-Momentum Index)

— Use 'Value × Momentum' to see through the Ethereum cycle

📘 1. Why redesign it?

The core logic of AHR999 is (short-term heat) × (long-term value deviation).

We continue with this logic but have made key optimizations for the characteristics of $ETH :

  1. Short-term Momentum (Momentum): Using the 200-day moving average (MA200). This is recognized as the bull-bear dividing line; prices above it represent strength, while those below it represent weakness.

  2. Long-term Value (Value Anchor): Bitcoin is usually fitted with a logarithmic model, but ETH's model has changed since The Merge transitioned to POS deflation. A more robust long-term anchor is the 200-week moving average (MA200W). It represents a complete 4-year halving cycle and serves as a strong bear market support line for ETH and even U.S. stocks.

🧮 2. Core formula of EHR999

Don't complicate things; the formula is very straightforward:

EHR999 = (Price ÷ MA200) × (Price ÷ MA200W)

Indicator meaning:

  • 📉 Extremely low value: Price is simultaneously below both the daily and weekly bottoms → The market is severely undervalued (golden pit)

  • 📈 Soaring value: Price is far above both lines → The market is extremely euphoric (top risk)

This means you can use this one number to quickly judge whether ETH is currently overvalued or undervalued!

After backtesting, we divide EHR999 into three key intervals corresponding to your investment operations:

Indicator range market status strategy suggestions < 0.45 extremely undervalued (panic zone)🟢 Double down / One-time bottom-fishing 0.45 ~ 1.5 reasonable fluctuation (stable zone)⚪ Normal execution of investment plan ≥ 1.5 overvalued (euphoric zone)🔴 Suspend investment / Gradually take profits ≥ 3.0 extreme bubble (top zone)⚠️ Liquidate / Lock in profits

In summary: Buy double at low levels, buy regularly, and sell gradually at high levels.

📈 4. How to calculate it yourself?

You don't need complex code; just open TradingView to see:

  1. Open the ETH/USD chart.

  2. Add two indicators:

    • Simple Moving Average (set length to 200, select daily cycle)

    • Simple Moving Average (set length to 200, select weekly cycle)

  3. Take out your calculator: (Current Price ÷ Daily Line 200) × (Current Price ÷ Weekly Line 200)

💡 Advanced players: You can write a small script in Pine Script to directly plot this curve and monitor the market's 'temperature' in real-time.

🧠 5. In conclusion

EHR999 is the evolved version of AHR999 for Ethereum. It considers the fundamental changes from PoW to PoS, balancing the deflationary model with on-chain activity.

But please remember:

  • 📍 History ≠ Future: Black swan events can breach any model.

  • 📍 Tools are not beliefs: EHR999 helps you overcome greed and fear, execute discipline, rather than provide reasons to go all in.

When EHR999 is lower, future opportunities are greater; when it is higher, risks are closer.

Cross through emotions with rationality, win over cycles with discipline.

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