According to bettors on the Polymarket platform, gold currently has a 74% chance of winning the race to reach $5,000 before Ethereum does, which is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
📊 Current situation and comparison
Current price of the asset (approximate) distance to target probability of reaching first
Gold (XAU) $4,480 needs to rise ~10% 74% (high)
Ethereum (ETH) below $3,000 needs to rise >66% low (implied)
🏆 Gold performance in 2025 and reasons for its rise
Gold is witnessing one of its best years in modern history, having risen by about 60-65% in 2025 alone. This 'historic rise' is attributed to a combination of factors:
1. Debt concerns: Investors are worried about rising US government debt and financial sustainability, buying gold as a hedge against 'currency devaluation.'
2. Central banks buying: Central banks, especially in China and emerging markets, are buying gold at a record pace to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.
3. Hedging demand (safe haven): Gold's status as a 'safe haven' asset attracted huge capital due to trade tensions and geopolitical disputes.
🔄 What happened with Ethereum (ETH)?
Ethereum saw significant momentum earlier in the year but has since declined:
· Role of BitMine: BitMine has strongly pivoted to become an 'Ethereum treasury company.' Backed by analyst Tom Lee, it accumulated over 4 million ETH (equivalent to about 3.3% of the total supply) by late 2025.
· Speculative impact: Aggressive buying by BitMine drove Ethereum prices up in Q3 2025, as investors bought shares of the company (BMNR) as a leveraged bet on ETH.
· ETF fund inflow: During the same period (July 2025), Ethereum cash ETFs experienced a massive inflow of investments for 13 consecutive days, attracting $4 billion of new capital in a very short time. Institutional investors used these funds to get ahead of BitMine's buying pressure.
· Loss of momentum: These encouraging factors together allowed Ethereum to come close to the psychological barrier of $5,000. However, this momentum quickly halted, and bullish speculators lost their momentum.