Zcash has risen nearly 10% in the last 24 hours and is trading close to the level of $446. The rise that started from the bull flag pattern on December 15 is still ongoing, and the projected target is near $655. This level corresponds to both the flag projection and Fibonacci extension. Thus, the target remains unchanged. However, timing is an issue.
Mega-whales have entered the scene like Santa Claus for Zcash prices, but the rest of the market is not yet ready to celebrate.
Mega-whales are trying to deliver the gift
Solana's top 100 Zcash addresses increased their spot holdings by 2.86% in the last 24 hours – from 34,542 to 35,532 ZEC. At the current ZEC price, this is about a new position of $441,480 (small but critical). This supports the view that a breakout from the bull flag pattern is still possible, and there is long-term belief.
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The structure is simple. The bull flag pattern broke on December 15 and has not yet been invalidated. The price dipped lower, but the pattern still indicates upward movement. Whales' additions to this structure are the closest to the price Santa Claus that the market has seen all month.
Timing may still be an issue as retail investors are not keeping up.
Buying the dip does not convince, and derivatives disagree.
From December 17 to 23, Zcash's price rose. At the same time, the Money Flow Index (MFI) made lower lows. MFI measures buying and selling pressure based on price and volume. When the price rises but MFI does not follow, it indicates weak dip buying and a lack of confidence from smaller investors. This is not yet a bearish signal, but a warning sign indeed.
Hyperliquid's derivatives data confirms this hesitation.
In the last 24 hours:
Whales in derivatives: net short.
Profitable players: still net short, although some long positions have been added.
Smart money: still net short, indicating a bearish market bias (although some long positions are being built).
Top 100 derivatives addresses: reducing long exposure instead of increasing it.
So even though the mega-whales in spot are accumulating ZEC (spot buying), the derivatives side does not support this movement. The market accepts the breach, but the timing is still not trusted.
Simply put: the $655 target is still in place, but the price rally needs broad support in the short term.
Zcash price levels that define the path towards $655,0000
The first sentiment check point is around $458. It is the 0.5 Fibonacci level. If the day's close exceeds this, room opens up towards $479 and then $508. If Zcash's price reaches $546, the sentiment would align with the original bull flag projection, and $655 would become realistic, not just calculative.
As Zcash approaches the $655 level, this fulfills the measured move of the flag and the conditions of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
If the trend does not hold, $411 is the first level check for possible damages. Below this, $370 threatens the entire pattern's invalidation. Currently, the ticket structure remains unchanged. Whale investors are trying to effect a change. Retail investors and derivatives markets are not yet ready to open the doors.