My reading of what happened in Venezuela in the light of cold geopolitics:
1. International law no longer exists. Much less that of the world based on rules. It died in Gaza and now Trump confirms it in his "backyard." What prevails now, regarding the relationship of the powers with their spheres of influence, is force. As for Latin America, we return to the framework of the late 19th century and early 20th century: a zone of U.S. intervention in accordance with its fundamental geopolitical interests. At a time when the Northern empire refocuses on those resources it needs from its immediate geographic space: oil, minerals, arable land, water, and strategic positions (ports, maritime crossings, etc.).
2. In the world, there are only three truly sovereign powers: the United States, China, and Russia. Sovereign in the sense that they can act autonomously at the geopolitical level, that is, without the need for authorizations. At the same time, they have the effective resources (armament and technology), strategic depth (territory, population, and history), and international alliances to do so. One of those powers, the still more militarily and economically decisive one, is led by a guy who does not care about international law or democracy (not even in his own country). The other two, one in full emergency (China) and the other existentially threatened in its sphere of influence (Russia), will logically act accordingly. For now, especially in their spheres of influence.
3. Ukraine and Taiwan must be very worried. The resolution of their contradictions with Putin and Jinping, respectively, will not be solved through “democratic” means or based on the now non-existent international law. At the same time, they do not have the means to respond in a possible situation of true siege by the two powers surrounding them. Especially Taiwan, which culturally and historically is part of China.
4. Latin America is doomed to be a vulgar geopolitical dwarf. I say this when I see how the right-wing and dominant elites celebrate such a blatant violation as the one just committed by Trump’s U.S. in Venezuela (a brother country). The accusations against Maduro and the chavista leadership are ridiculous. Venezuela, as stated by the UN, plays a marginal role in international drug trafficking. It is not in any case a key player in that terrible international business. They attacked for the oil. Which brings about the problem that if today they justify an attack under false premises against a brother country, then another U.S. president (Trump has three years left there) can do the same by outlining another excuse. There lies the seriousness: that we may once again become a zone of direct military intervention. Latin American right-wingers have never understood sovereignty. Less so now that they have turned to irrational far-right extremism. Just look at how the sickly Milei is celebrating. He does not understand that he likes it now because it is done by a far-right figure from the North, but tomorrow a “woke” democrat can do it against Argentina in the name of any other invention, and then he will not celebrate (when I say tomorrow, I do not mean literally, it could be decades from now. The point is that the precedent is set. I point this out because in these times of cognitive decline it is necessary to specify even the elementary).
Quickly, a key point of internal politics in Venezuela: the apparent departure of Maduro, according to what is said at this hour, whether by arrest or because he moved to another country, draws a lot of attention... It does not seem credible that an operation like that was carried out without deaths or injuries. Everything seems very rehearsed. For now, the concrete fact is that chavismo continues to lead. And that the military also remain in command. That’s all for now. We will see later what happens.