Before Japan could even play its card, we directly overturned its entire table. Everyone is panicking—without Japan's photoresist, will China's semiconductor industry come to a halt? But as soon as the first round of sanctions landed,
I ask you: Have you noticed this time it's completely different from the usual pattern? In the past, we just responded to each move as it came. This time is different. Japan hadn't even thrown its 'photoresist' card yet, and we already flipped the table. Many people are still worried: Will China's chips be crippled without Japan's photoresist? Actually, such concerns are unnecessary. On January 7th, the Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into Japan's imported dichlorosilane (DCS). Though brief in wording, the impact is powerful—anyone in the know would be shocked by its severity. Dichlorosilane may sound like fertilizer, but it's actually the 'blood' of chip manufacturing.
Whether it's logic chips or memory chips, the thin-film deposition process simply cannot function without it. That's why Japanese giants like Shin-Etsu Chemical and Mitsubishi Chemical are so eager to sell to China—they're not just chasing profits; they're trying to crush China's domestic alternatives. I reviewed the evidence submitted by Tangshan Sanfu Electronic Materials, the applicant. From 2022 to 2024, these Japanese firms simultaneously increased exports while slashing prices—overall price drops reached 31%. What does this mean? It's an attempt to use low prices to crush China's emerging companies at birth. Once they're dead, these firms plan to raise prices again. But this time, we're not tolerating it.
Once the anti-dumping investigation was launched, we struck right at their core. The semiconductor supply chain is deeply interconnected. Japan thought it could choke us with photoresist, but didn't realize its own vulnerability lies in our hands. Our anti-dumping move essentially tells them: If you want to start a price war, fine—let's examine it thoroughly under WTO rules. And that’s not all. Just as news broke about export controls on dual-use items to Japan, the announcement of the investigation into dichlorosilane followed immediately.
Yesterday, I read a report from Nomura Research Institute—its contents truly made me uneasy. The report claims that if China completely bans exports of critical resources like rare earths, Japan’s economy would lose 660 billion yen within just three months—roughly 30 billion RMB. And that’s only for three months. If sustained for a full year, the damage would be even more catastrophic. This isn't just trade friction. We used to believe in responding only after being attacked, always trying to preserve face. But now we’ve seen clearly: arguing with certain opponents is pointless. You have to show strength.
Japan’s current reaction is quite amusing: On one hand, companies are crying out about supply chain disruptions; on the other, politicians are jumping around, demanding protests. I wonder—when you tried to control China’s chip industry, did you ever consider that supply chains are two-way dependencies? The most satisfying part of this move is that we're no longer on the defensive. We're taking the initiative. While China does have domestic production capacity for dichlorosilane, it was previously suppressed by Japan’s low-price strategy. Now, with state intervention, we're not only protecting domestic industry but also delivering a strong warning to our rivals.
Don’t think your high-end industrial chain is invincible. Without Chinese raw materials and markets, your high-end production lines would shut down in minutes. I'm puzzled why some still claim we should stay 'rational.' Isn't this rational? We acted based on applications from domestic industries—fully compliant and lawful. Every step is solid. The truly irrational ones are those who rely on technological monopolies to bully others.
This isn’t over. During this period, Japan will likely resort to various underhanded tactics, possibly even uniting with other countries to cause trouble. But so what? If we allow them to freely dump goods and choke us today, the cost tomorrow could be far more than hundreds of billions of RMB. Since we’ve already overturned the table, we’re setting new rules. This round of countermeasures isn’t just about semiconductors—it’s a message to everyone: If you want to steal food from our bowl and break our pot, you’ve got another thing coming.