The first full trading week of 2026 has come to a close, with global major risk assets surging collectively, setting a strong tone for the new year. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.65%, the Dow Jones gaining 0.48%, and the Nasdaq soaring 0.83%, all reaching new historical highs. Meanwhile, international gold prices also broke through the key level of $4,600, creating a 'double dragon' spectacle alongside the stock market.
Macroeconomic: Expectation of rate cuts delayed, geopolitical tensions become focal point
However, beneath the surface of this thriving picture, macroeconomic complexities are intensifying. The U.S. December non-farm employment report released last Friday became a turning point in market sentiment. The data showed only 50,000 new jobs added that month, significantly lower than the previous two months. This figure caused the market's expectation of a March rate cut by the Federal Reserve to vanish completely. According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the proportion of investors betting on the first rate cut in June has significantly increased.
The Federal Reserve's policy path is influenced not only by economic data but also by internal uncertainties. The U.S. Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, focusing on a $250 million renovation project. Powell himself stated he will continue performing his duties, adding further uncertainty to the market.
Meanwhile, the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a 'sword of Damocles' hanging over the global market. As the fourth-largest OPEC producer, Iran produces up to 3 million barrels of oil per day. If Iran's situation becomes unstable, it could trigger a sharp rise in international oil prices and push up global inflation, directly affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making and further delaying the pace of rate cuts.
In comparison, in the long term, as the U.S. gradually gets involved in Venezuela's oil extraction, global oil supply is expected to increase, which may suppress oil prices in the future. However, in the short term, the situation in Iran remains the key variable dominating the market.
Cryptocurrency: BTC oscillating, hotspots shifting to new battleground on BSC
In the cryptocurrency market, despite a high risk appetite in the external macro environment, the market internals show clear divergence. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to oscillate around the critical level of $91,000, failing to follow stocks and gold in setting new all-time highs. The market has seen a scenario of 'BTC oscillation, altcoins broadly declining'.
The current market focus has shifted to new Chinese MEME tokens on Binance Smart Chain (BSC). This area is experiencing extremely high capital热度 (heated interest), but also comes with high speculative risks. Analysts particularly warn that when participating in such projects, one must pay close attention to the token's address distribution. If a single address holds more than 8% of the supply, extreme caution is advised.
Besides the MEME hype, some established crypto assets have also shown active performance. Privacy coin Monero (XMR) hit a new all-time high, driving up other privacy coins like ZEC. Additionally, some traditional blue-chip cryptocurrencies, such as 'Hakimi' and 'Laozi', rebounded due to potential contract expectations.
Regarding industry prospects, Binance founder CZ posted on Saturday that 'a super cycle is coming'. However, based on Bitcoin's current performance, this view still needs time to be validated.
Next week: Key data and meetings set the tone
Looking ahead, the market will face a series of key events that could set the tone for this year's market trajectory. This week, several Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches, warming up for the January 27 FOMC meeting. Additionally, next Tuesday's core CPI data is particularly important. If the data exceeds expectations (e.g., above 0.3%), it could completely dispel market hopes for near-term rate cuts and put pressure on risk assets.
Overall, the market started strong in 2026, but the complexity of the macroeconomic environment, geopolitical uncertainties, and internal adjustments in the crypto market have presented investors with unprecedented challenges and opportunities.