Gold touched a new all-time high of around 4630 at the start of the session. It's becoming somewhat numbed by the daily new highs. For today's trading session, Lao Shi's bullish outlook remains unchanged. The market is expected to experience a low-range consolidation. Lao Shi's long position at 4580 pullback perfectly illustrates today's market dynamics, fully validating the morning's consolidation pattern.

Will this pattern continue into the evening? During the day, effective support was observed at 4560-4600, and the market is gradually stabilizing and rebounding. Lao Shi will closely monitor the breakout strength at 4600 in the short term. Market sentiment remains generally positive, with a stronger willingness to allocate assets at lower levels. Amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts and a global high-debt environment, gold's safe-haven attributes and its role as a hedge against currency credit continue to stand out. The validity of support in the 4580-4560 range has been further confirmed, reinforcing the resilience of the current upward trend. After a brief consolidation, gold prices resumed their upward movement, highlighting the market's growing recognition of gold's status as a core asset.

From a macro perspective, the controversy over the independence of the Federal Reserve constitutes a core catalyst. On January 11, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell confirmed he received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice, facing threats related to criminal charges. He explicitly responded that the accusations are an 'excuse', fundamentally because the Federal Reserve did not adjust interest rates according to the President's wishes. This incident occurred against the backdrop of the government’s continued pressure. Geopolitical risks have spilled over into Latin America. Recently, the U.S. has taken consecutive actions, including targeting Venezuelan military objectives, forcibly controlling Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and seizing Russian tankers in international waters.

Secondly, tonight's CPI five-star data is worth our close attention. Before the data is released, the market will likely continue the pullback to the 4560.80 range to try long positions as mentioned by the old lion. If the evening inflation data significantly declines, it will further strengthen interest rate cut expectations, driving gold prices upward. After breaking through the 4600 mark, it is expected to test the 4620-4630 range. Conversely, if the inflation data rises sharply, the currently overheated expectations for rate cuts will suffer a severe blow; considering that geopolitical conflicts and rate cut expectations have been fully priced in, rising inflation could trigger a rapid correction in gold prices. After breaking below the 4550 line, it will likely accelerate down to the 4510-4520 range, requiring careful risk management.

So the specific thought for the evening is to primarily go long and secondarily go short.

We can consider continuing the midday strategy to try long positions in the short-term support range of 4560-80. If the data breaks through 4600, we can expect to see 4615-25, with a defense at 60.

If the price drops after the evening data is released, we need to consider exiting to prevent profit withdrawal.$XAU #Strategy增持比特币 #美国CPI数据即将公布 #美国贸易逆差