🧐 What's the current situation?
You can imagine the market as a group of people collaborating on a business venture. In the past period, business wasn't going well, and they lost some money on paper, leaving everyone feeling uncertain. Recently, things have started to improve, and they're beginning to see some gains, but it's still far from breaking even or making substantial profits.
At this moment, several most experienced 'big bosses' (i.e., professional institutions) gather for a meeting, and their opinions aren't entirely aligned:
One faction (a slightly optimistic boss) thinks: 'The worst is behind us, we can try taking on some new projects, but we need to proceed step by step—no rushing.'
Another faction (the more conservative bosses) reminds: 'Don't be too happy too soon; there is a pile of orders wanting to break even pressing from above. We need to digest these before it can truly stabilize.'
In simple terms: Just caught a breath, but it’s not yet time to run freely.
⚖️ In the next three months, both sides are 'tugging of war'
The market is being pulled between two forces:
The upward pressure (bullish): The number of people who were in a hurry to sell has decreased, and some large funds (such as ETF buyers) are slowly entering the market. In professional gambling (options market), the number of people betting on an increase is starting to rise.
The downward pressure (bearish): A large number of people have been stuck at higher price levels (for example, between 90,000 and 110,000 USD), and once they break even, they will want to sell, pressing down on the price like a ceiling. Moreover, according to the old saying that Bitcoin 'makes a fortune every four years', we are now approaching the time point where the 'story ends', and many people are worried whether this market trend has reached its peak.
📈 So, how might it proceed?
Overall, in the next three months, there is a high likelihood of volatility and indecision.
The market needs time to slowly digest those 'stuck positions' mentioned above. It is unlikely to surge directly into a euphoric bull market, but the possibility of a sharp drop back to the bottom also seems low at this point. It is more likely to oscillate within a range, testing everyone's patience.
👀 As an ordinary person, what should you watch out for and what should you do?
You don't need to understand complex data; just look at two things:
Keep an eye on two 'psychological lines':
Upper line (around 99,000 USD): This is the average cost for short-term players. If Bitcoin can steadily maintain this price and hold, it indicates that the market is truly strong, and there may be upward potential.
Lower line (around 80,000 - 85,000 USD region): This is the recent bottom line. If it can hold at this position, the market is relatively safe.
Reflect on emotions:
When the news is all about 'plummeting' and 'panic', it often means we are close to a local bottom.
When everyone is shouting 'soon to 100,000' and 'continuously rising', one should be more cautious.
In summary: In the next three months, the cryptocurrency circle is likely to be a 'volatile script'. For short-term traders, it is necessary to adapt to this up-and-down rhythm and not to chase after every rise and fall. For long-term investors, if a significant drop occurs during this volatile period, it may actually be a good time to gradually pick up cheap assets.