Some macro hidden risks I'm closely watching for 2026:

- Political uncertainty related to the midterm election cycle
- Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech sectors (I don't think it's a bubble, but rather a potential major correction, possibly happening this year)
- Japan policy uncertainty, which could disrupt yen carry trades and tighten global liquidity
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- Sovereign debt markets facing repricing pressures, especially at the long-end of government bond yields
- Global growth slowing down, putting pressure on corporate earnings expectations

Individually, any one of these issues isn't fatal.
But if multiple factors coincide, they could quickly evolve into a black swan event, posing systemic risks to global markets.

When overlaying this macro backdrop onto Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the period from late Q3 2026 to year-end is likely to be more challenging for the crypto market.

Of course, some argue that ETFs, institutional participation, and changes in market structure have rendered the four-year cycle "obsolete."

I don't fully agree with that view.

I acknowledge the cycle is weakening. I also agree it's become less clean and less dramatic. But I don't believe it has disappeared.

Market structures evolve, but human nature, liquidity cycles, and positioning behavior don't vanish overnight.

Simply put:
If a noticeable pullback occurs around late Q3 2026 when $BTC appears, I won't be surprised at all.

That's typically when I'd increase my buying, not exit or panic.

I'd view it as part of the cycle, not a rejection of the long-term logic.

Historically, the most uncomfortable moments often give rise to the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.