Recently, Trump has unusually claimed that there are "no plans to fire Powell," which is not a real concession of power.
In fact, he has already publicly named **Kevin Warsh** and **Kevin Hassett** as potential successors.
This type of maneuver is known in political psychology as "chronic displacement":
By establishing a "shadow chairman," current Chairman Powell is made to feel the political scrutiny behind him at all times, thereby weakening the de facto independence of the Federal Reserve.
This move is indeed clever; Trump is actually playing a **"psychological hunting"** game.
1. Surface 'release,' but in fact 'house arrest.'
Trump publicly states 'there are currently no plans to fire Powell,' which is definitely not a compromise, but the highest level of pressure.
Eliminating the 'victim' halo: If Powell directly and hard fires, he will become a hero maintaining the independence of the Fed, triggering severe market turmoil.
Psychological game: Not targeting you now, but the list of successors is already flying around the world. This tells Powell: Your term countdown has begun, and the remaining time, your policies better align with my expectations, otherwise 'there are currently no plans' can turn into 'there are plans' at any moment.
2. The Fed is caught in the 'tariff' and 'inflation' fire.
The phrase 'Holiday consumption supports moderate growth' mentioned in the brown paper is a big truth.
The false prosperity of growth: Consumption overdrawn during holidays masks the weakness of the underlying manufacturing industry.
Cost transfer: Tariffs have not fully landed yet, and PPI (Producer Price Index) has already begun to stir. Once tariffs are officially imposed, inflation pressure will directly transmit to the Fed.
Policy deadlock: If interest rates are not cut to curb inflation, Trump will scold him for ruining the economy; if interest rates are cut to maintain growth, the blame for uncontrollable inflation will still fall on old Powell.
3. The chronic strangulation of power.
This 'softening' actually transforms the Fed's independence from 'open plunder' to 'boiling frogs in warm water.'
Successor warm-up: The names Waller and Haskett are released to prepare the market psychologically.
Data game: When political factors seep into monetary policy, CPI and non-farm data are no longer simple economic indicators, but have become the 'fruits of battle' of multiple parties.
💡 Let's predict the next script:
Option A: Powell transforms into 'Iron Head Gong.' Insisting on data orientation, even if he clashes with the White House and refuses to cut interest rates, may lead to a complete breakdown between the two sides by mid-2026.
Option B: Powell chooses to 'go with the flow.' Maintaining independence in rhetoric but quietly cooperating in operations, in exchange for a decent end to his term.
What do you think of this wave of 'Game of Thrones'? Do you think old Powell can withstand the pressure of 'the successor is standing right outside the door'?