Who understands, family! The privacy coin sector is about to be taken to the sky by XMR, while ZEC next door is just 'twiddling its thumbs' in place, like a socially anxious player hiding in the corner at a party. Others are hitting new highs and making a fortune, but it can't even manage a decent rebound without stumbling. This kind of 'reverse conspicuous package' condition makes me sniff the sweet scent of shorting — but the key point is, now is not the time to act!
Let me sync the new fans with the big picture: Recently, the privacy coin track has completely differentiated. XMR soared all the way past $690 to create a historical high, with little brothers like ARRR and DUSK joining in the feast, but ZEC, due to the aftermath of the turmoil in the development team, has become the drag on the sector, dropping nearly 18% in the past week, completely out of sync with the festive atmosphere of the sector. This kind of fundamentally and technically weak asset is truly a prime candidate for shorting, but we need to wait for enough signals and not act like a 'reckless person.'
Let’s analyze the daily level intricacies first, which is also the core reason for my judgment that the timing hasn’t arrived. From the trend, ZEC turned down immediately after touching the EMA30, showing no effort to struggle, fully displaying a weak posture. But the key issue is that it hasn’t even dared to test the extreme resistance at the 470 line—this is like a sprint where you stop just as you’re about to take off, indicating zero willingness from the bulls to exert power, and it also means that the daily oscillation hasn’t finished yet. Currently, the moving average system is in a bearish arrangement, with prices being pressed below the EMA30 and unable to move; under this pattern, it’s likely to repeatedly grind down within the range, exhausting the patience of the last batch of bottom-fishing retail investors before a directional choice arrives.
Looking at the short-term game on the 4-hour chart, there are two key price levels hidden here; take notes to avoid pitfalls. The 400 level below forms short-term support, previously touching the trend line before rebounding, but this rebound feels more like a 'dead cat bounce'—the trading volume hasn’t followed, and the MACD only shows a weak red bar, which is a typical weak golden cross, indicating no real buying intention. The 450 level above is a tough resistance; considering recent volume, breaking through this position is as difficult as climbing to the sky, especially since capital is flowing towards strong privacy coins, and no one is willing to lift ZEC.
Let me share a short-selling tip (warning of valuable content): For weak assets like ZEC, never jump in to short during a rebound, as it’s easy to get stopped out by short-term fluctuations. The optimal strategy is to wait for one of two signals: either the daily chart breaks below the previous consolidation range's lower edge, confirming the downtrend; or the 4-hour chart breaks below the 400 support with increased volume, forming an effective breakdown. At the same time, be aware that the overall strength of privacy coins may provide slight support to ZEC, so control your position well, with a single position not exceeding 5% of your capital, and set the stop-loss 1-2 points above the pullback high after the breakdown to avoid being caught in a sudden emotional surge.
Some old fans might ask: 'Since it’s so weak, can’t we position early?' Let me give you an example: Previously, a certain coin was also weak in the sector, and I shorted it early, but the strong sector led to a passive rebound, resulting in a forced stop-loss for 3 days before exiting; later, when the signal arrived, I had to re-enter the position, which ended up costing more. The crypto market is not lacking in opportunities; what it lacks is the patience to wait for those opportunities, especially in short-selling, where the margin for error is even lower; you must wait for the market to deliver the 'window' to your hands.
To summarize my core viewpoint: ZEC is weaker than the sector, which is an established fact, shorting is the general direction, but currently, it is in a transitional phase of daily bottom grinding and 4-hour weak rebounds, waiting for a clear breakout signal. In the future, I will closely monitor these two key levels: the defense situation at the 400 support, and whether the daily chart shows increased downward volume.
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