💣 Big Melon Warning! The Federal Reserve has just been stunned by two "deep-water bombs"; Trump turns faster than a page, and Powell seems to have narrowly escaped a disaster, but in reality, he is already being roasted on the fire! More critically, this grand power drama in Washington is quietly laying down the fuse for a massive shock in the crypto market. The volatility of $DASH, $BCH, and $CHZ cannot escape this game!
As a veteran who has been immersed in the crypto scene for many years, I dare say: the current market is not about looking at K-lines, but watching Trump's words and Powell's waist! Understanding the tricks in this operation is essential to picking up bargains in the turbulence; if you don't understand, you'll only get harvested back and forth.
First explosion: Trump's 'word magic' is deeper than MEME coin tricks.
A couple of days ago, Trump stated, 'There are no current plans to fire Powell', and many retail investors thought that calm seas were ahead, even believing it was a positive signal to enter the market. Wake up! This old man is much better at wordplay than at campaign speeches. The so-called 'no current plans' translates to 'I'm not going to deal with you now, but I've already got someone watching your position'.
He openly pointed out two 'successor candidates': former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh and former White House economic official Kevin Hassett, adding that 'the final decision is still early'. This is not a concession; it is clearly a 'last ultimatum' to Powell in front of the whole world: obey and cut rates, or by the end of your term in May, you may not even keep your position on the Federal Reserve Board. Ironically, the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Powell has not stopped, with the reason for the investigation being 'renovation costs exceeding budget', and anyone can see that this is simply an excuse to pressure for rate cuts.
My judgment: Powell is just a 'transitional tool', what Trump wants is never to replace him, but to control the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. As long as Powell dares to withstand the pressure and refrain from crazy rate cuts, the subsequent political suppression will only escalate. This power struggle is more thrilling than liquidations in the crypto market.
Second explosion: The 'beautifying filter' of the Beige Book shows that the inflation tiger is not dozing at all.
The Federal Reserve's recently released Beige Book states that 'eight districts are experiencing moderate growth', which sounds positive? Don't be fooled by the official rhetoric! I dug into the details and found that the so-called growth is entirely propped up by holiday spending, just as the crypto market relies on hot topics to pump, with no fundamental support at all. Employment data appears stable, but in reality, it is in a stagnant state of 'no increase, no decrease', while price and tariff costs are secretly rising. The resilience of PPI data already indicates that the inflation tiger is not only awake but sharpening its claws.
Here, let me highlight a key point: The current U.S. economy is in a 'pseudo-recovery', with the left hand needing to guard against economic recession while the right hand must suppress inflation rebound, and the Federal Reserve's policy space has already been squeezed into a corner. More critically, Trump, in his push for election momentum, is determined to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates, even at the cost of inflation rebounding. This kind of operation where 'politics overrides the economy' is undoubtedly a double-edged sword for the crypto market.
In the short term, the expectation of loose liquidity may bring a pulse market to the crypto market, especially for high-elasticity varieties like the Musk concept; but in the long term, uncontrolled inflation will lead to the collapse of the dollar's credibility, and damage to the Federal Reserve's independence will cause global capital to lose its pricing anchor, leading to even more extreme fluctuations in the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies like $DASH, $BCH, and $CHZ will likely oscillate repeatedly with the overall environment.
Core warning: Don't be lured into the market by 'positive news'; these two indicators are the stabilizing force.
Right now, market sentiment is fluctuating wildly due to news, with some shouting that a bull market is back while others are busy trying to escape the peak. I advise everyone to remain calm: any short-term news about 'Trump softening' or 'the economy improving' could be a trap to lure in buyers! Under the double bind of conflicting data and political maneuvering, the market will only get caught in an endless tug of war, with the real direction depending on two hard indicators:
1. Core CPI inflation: If inflation continues to exceed expectations, Powell will find it difficult to justify rate cuts, and liquidity expectations in the crypto market will quickly cool down; 2. Non-farm employment data: If the job market significantly cools, the risk of recession will increase, and the probability of the Federal Reserve being forced to compromise on rate cuts will soar, possibly leading to a wave of liquidity-driven growth in the crypto market.
Additionally, a reminder: The independence of the Federal Reserve is the cornerstone of the dollar's credibility. Once this cornerstone collapses, global 'de-dollarization' will accelerate, and as a substitute option, crypto assets will have stronger long-term logic, but short-term volatility will also be more extreme. High-leverage players should not gamble on direction.
Soul-searching question: Can Powell hold on until May? Will the 'Double Kevin' coming to power blow up the market?
In my opinion, whether Powell can last until the end of his term does not depend on his ability, but on Trump's electoral rhythm. If subsequent economic data worsens, Trump will likely take action early, even if it means facing opposition from Republican lawmakers, to install his confidants in the Federal Reserve. Once the 'Double Kevin' takes office, aggressive rate cuts will be almost certain, as they were nominated by Trump and will inevitably serve political goals.
How will the crypto market behave then? In the short term, it is highly likely to surge due to liquidity easing, but the rebound of inflation will quickly bite back, leading to a vicious cycle of 'sharp rises and even sharper falls'. Therefore, the most prudent strategy now is not to chase hot spots or bottom-fish, but to control positions, monitor CPI and non-farm data, and wait for the real direction to become clear before acting.
Finally, let's leave a topic: How many times do you think the Federal Reserve will cut rates after the 'Double Kevin' takes office? Can cryptocurrencies like $DASH, $BCH, and $CHZ take off on the tailwind of rate cuts? Let's discuss your views in the comments section, and follow me@链上帝王 #加密市场观察 $ETH .
