As global markets cheer for gold, AI stocks, and 'ABC' strategies, Bitcoin's silence is deafening.
At the beginning of 2026, the market splits into two worlds:
The New High World 🚀: Gold breaks through $4,700, silver doubles, and the Russell 2000 index rises for 11 consecutive days.
Investors shout 'Anything But Crypto' (buy anything but coins).
The Silent World 😶: Bitcoin has fluctuated below $100,000 for three months and has broken through $90,000 after a 'six consecutive days' decline, with volatility dropping to the lowest in history.
A sharp question arises: why has Bitcoin lagged behind in the frenzy after receiving unprecedented mainstream endorsements like ETFs, national reserves, and pensions?
01 📊 It's not 'falling behind', but a 'warning'; the weakness of Bitcoin may not be a failure, but rather a precise 'failure warning' ⚠️.
As a pure global liquidity indicator, it has often led the turn of U.S. stocks and other risk assets. Now, the stagnation of this 'leading indicator' may suggest that the seemingly strong upward momentum of other assets is about to wane. Its 'weakness' is sounding the alarm for the market's general optimism.
02 🚱 The fundamental reason for the 'water shortage' in the macro pond is that the global liquidity 'pond' is 'losing water' 💧. The Federal Reserve's 'pump' hasn't stopped: despite rate cuts, quantitative tightening (QT) continues to withdraw dollars from the market. The 'faucet' of the yen is tightening: the Bank of Japan has significantly raised interest rates, impacting the important funding sources for yen carry trades.
History shows that its interest rate hikes are often accompanied by a drop of over 20% in Bitcoin. The two major sources of liquidity are tightening simultaneously, and Bitcoin, which relies on capital-driven momentum, naturally struggles.
03 🌪️ Geopolitical 'Gray Rhino' and Capital Hedging; deeper fears stem from the geopolitical 'gray rhino'. The unilateral actions of the Trump administration (military intervention, tariff threats, domestic mobilization) have led to 'unknown unknowns' 😨.
This level of uncertainty forces large capital to make the most rational choice: increase cash holdings and withdraw from high-risk assets. Bitcoin has become the first 'withdrawal zone'.
04 ⚖️ The Illusion of a 'Bull Market' and Sovereign Will; looking back at the rising assets, their logic is entirely different from Bitcoin: Gold skyrocketing 🥇: the driving force is the strategic, cost-agnostic purchasing by global central banks, a 'vote of no confidence' in the dollar's credibility.
Stock prices are rising 📈: It is the strong guidance of capital flows from China and the U.S. industrial policies (such as AI nationalization and Xinchuang), rather than spontaneous market prosperity. Their 'strength' comes from sovereign will, not market liquidity, which explains the divergence with Bitcoin.
05 💎 Historical Mirror: Extreme differentiation is a prelude to reversal; history is a mirror 🪞. The relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin against gold has fallen into extreme oversold territory four times (2015, 2018, 2022, 2025), and each time it was on the eve of Bitcoin's epic rebound or even bull market. Currently, we are witnessing the fifth historic signal. When the market falls into 'ABC' frenzy and cash positions drop to freezing point, Bitcoin's 'stagnation' may be the rarest calm 🧠.
It is not bidding farewell to the stage, but rather, after the tide of liquidity recedes and geopolitical dust settles, it is accumulating strength for the next more solid value reassessment 💪.