The HBAR price is attempting to stabilize. However, the strength of the rebound is weakening. The token has risen about 7% since January 20, but has dropped nearly 8% over the past 7 days. More importantly, the structure that supported the upward breakout has begun to weaken beneath the surface.

The W-shaped rebound pattern has been maintained so far. However, the flow of funds, investor sentiment, and whale movements do not indicate an environment where the upward trend will continue cleanly.

Weak fund flows... doubts about the breakout structure.

The HBAR price is still within the W pattern on the daily charts. This pattern appears when the price forms two similar lows, showing that buying pressure has entered at the same level twice. If the HBAR price breaks above $0.135 neckline, breakout theory may be established.

The problem lies in what happens below this pattern.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is transitioning to a downward trend. The CMF tracks whether large funds from institutions, ETFs, and whales are flowing in or out based on price and volume. During the rebound period, the CMF briefly rose above 0, showing fresh inflows, but that signal has now disappeared.

The CMF has dropped below 0 again and is touching the upward trend line that has been maintained since the end of December last year. This suggests that although the price has not yet broken the support line, funds are beginning to flow out of Hedera.

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The behavior of whales also reinforces caution. All major holding groups have mostly maintained their holdings, but there has been no noticeable additional buying during the downward phase. When whales expect a breakout to continue, they usually accumulate purchases in a bearish market.

Their hesitation suggests uncertainty rather than conviction. If the CMF breaks down through the trend line, the next outflow of funds could be from the whales.

Buying at the low of $0.102 support... psychological collapse.

Despite weakened fund flows, the HBAR price has not yet plummeted. The reason is due to buying during declines.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is often used as a signal for buying during declines. The MFI has shown a stair-step increase while prices have fallen since the end of December. The MFI measures buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. This bullish divergence indicates that buyers have entered during every decline without panic selling. This movement explains why the $0.102 support level has been maintained.

However, relying solely on buying during declines will not sustain a breakout if trust is lost. This is even more true in situations where the Hedera whales do not buy during such declines.

Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply. Since January 19, positive sentiment has plummeted from about 29 to 1.5 in just a few days, a decrease of over 94%. This is the lowest level this month.

This point is important. Market sentiment directly affected prices earlier this month. From January 6 to January 12, positive sentiment fell from about 20.8 to 10.4. During the same period, the HBAR price declined from about $0.132 to $0.114, a drop of about 14%.

This decline in sentiment is much steeper than before. If this correlation holds, the buying pressure during declines may disappear, or if CMF outflows offset it, price pressure could quickly intensify. Additionally, indifferent whales may likely use this sentiment decline as a reason to sell.

HBAR, reversal-continuation decision price range.

Currently, everything depends on movements within a narrow range.

If the HBAR price maintains $0.102 on a daily closing basis, the technical validity of the W pattern will be preserved. If this level is clearly broken down, the pattern structure will be invalidated, and the risk of falling to $0.094 will initially open up. If selling pressure accelerates, $0.073 will become a realistic downward target.

To expect a rise, trading behavior must change. The CMF must recover above 0, market sentiment must stabilize, and the price must reclaim the range between $0.118 and $0.124. Without such changes, the $0.135 neckline will still not be reached, and the 31% breakout expectation remains elusive.

The current HBAR price is holding. However, expectations for a breakout are weakening. If funds continue to flow out and market sentiment remains weak, the $0.102 level will no longer be a support line but rather a final test.