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WangLoc BNB
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Bitcoin Forecast: Target & Timing Based on Historical Cycles
If $BTC continues to respect its historical cycle structure, the current data suggests a potential downside target around $29,000 by October 2026.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Let’s walk through the logic step by step.
The 4-Year Cycle Pattern. Over the past 8 years, Bitcoin has formed three major cycle tops:
201720212025
Each top occurred roughly 4 years apart, followed by a prolonged corrective phase.
What happens after the top?
Historically:
Each major decline lasted around 12 monthsEach cycle produced an average drawdown of ~75%–80%The final bottom typically formed near the end of the correction year
Based on this structure:
The latest cycle top formed around October 2025That suggests the current declining phase may extend until October 2026
Price projection
If we apply a ~75%–80% correction to the recent cycle peak:
The projected bottom range aligns closely with $29,000
This level also coincides with:
Prior high-volume consolidation zonesLong-term structural support from previous cycles
This is not a prediction based on emotion or short-term price action.
It’s a cycle-based probability model, assuming no extreme external shock or paradigm shift. Markets don’t repeat perfectly but they often rhyme.
Timing matters more than conviction
Structure matters more than headlines
Cycles matter more than narratives
This is not investment advice, only a macro-cycle observation based on historical behavior.
If the cycle holds patience will be rewarded.
What’s your view?
Do you believe the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is still valid in this era?
#BTC #StrategyBTCPurchase #BTC100kNext?
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Let’s walk through the logic step by step.
The 4-Year Cycle Pattern. Over the past 8 years, Bitcoin has formed three major cycle tops:
201720212025
Each top occurred roughly 4 years apart, followed by a prolonged corrective phase.
What happens after the top?
Historically:
Each major decline lasted around 12 monthsEach cycle produced an average drawdown of ~75%–80%The final bottom typically formed near the end of the correction year
Based on this structure:
The latest cycle top formed around October 2025That suggests the current declining phase may extend until October 2026
Price projection
If we apply a ~75%–80% correction to the recent cycle peak:
The projected bottom range aligns closely with $29,000
This level also coincides with:
Prior high-volume consolidation zonesLong-term structural support from previous cycles
This is not a prediction based on emotion or short-term price action.
It’s a cycle-based probability model, assuming no extreme external shock or paradigm shift. Markets don’t repeat perfectly but they often rhyme.
Timing matters more than conviction
Structure matters more than headlines
Cycles matter more than narratives
This is not investment advice, only a macro-cycle observation based on historical behavior.
If the cycle holds patience will be rewarded.
What’s your view?
Do you believe the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is still valid in this era?
#BTC #StrategyBTCPurchase #BTC100kNext?
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.