Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has just given a new reason to believe that the price of Bitcoin still has a chance for a strong rally in 2026. This is a bold statement, especially in the context of recent price movements and market sentiment that does not truly support the possibility of a breakthrough.

However, according to Hayes, the real story of Bitcoin lies beyond the short-term fluctuations on the chart. He believes that macro factors are quietly shifting in favor of Bitcoin, and this change could be much more significant than the short-term fluctuations.

Bitcoin price forecast: Momentum from macro context

In a recent post on social media X, Arthur Hayes stated that Bitcoin could be preparing for a new growth cycle as macro conditions gradually improve. He cites a report from Bloomberg about the Japanese yen reaching its highest level since August, viewing this as a signal that the market is undergoing a profound shift.

Hayes believes that if this scenario unfolds as expected, it will be a very powerful catalyst for the price of Bitcoin. According to him, the key point is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) injects more dollars into the system by expanding bank reserves. This money could flow into yen purchases, creating shifts in the currency market and spreading to risk assets like Bitcoin.

He added that when the Fed supports the yen, the balance sheet of this agency will start to grow, and traders can fully track this through the foreign currency-denominated asset section in the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report.

Hayes also noted information suggesting that the New York Fed has conducted conversion test transactions from dollars to yen to support the Japanese currency, while the U.S. Treasury has not officially intervened. If this policy is indeed implemented, Hayes believes that not only the price of Bitcoin but the entire cryptocurrency market will benefit, leading to widespread growth.

This statement was made right after the Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged last Friday, despite speculation about the possibility of an interest rate hike. This decision has helped ease pressure on the market, as many investors were concerned that the market would continue to decline.

Bloomberg also reported that the yen rose about 1.75%, reaching 155.63 yen per dollar – the highest level since December. The yen continues to maintain its upward momentum in Asian trading.

Initially, some traders believed that the strengthening of the yen was a negative signal for Bitcoin, even predicting that prices could drop to $70,000. However, Hayes has a contrasting view: if the Fed intervenes as he expects, this shift could create new growth momentum for Bitcoin.

Market outlook: Investors are waiting

Although Arthur Hayes predicts growth potential, most traders remain cautious. Many are focusing their attention on the next support levels. According to data from Polymarket, the majority expect the price of Bitcoin to drop to $80,000 before having enough strength to rise again.

Bitcoin price prediction on Polymarket

Moreover, large investment institutions have not yet shown clear support. Bitcoin ETF funds recorded net outflows of up to 104 million USD just yesterday, marking the fifth consecutive day of selling. In total, more than 1.4 billion USD has left these funds in the past week.

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