Looking back at the last issue,#BTC走势分析 I actually made it very clear:
I do not plan to update new views in the near future.
The two long positions at the mid-time level have been swept away even when viewed on the daily chart,
and the price still has not returned to the BPR that I truly want to wait for.
The current issue is not whether to chase,
but rather—when the structure has completed a full cycle, are we still viewing the new landscape from an old perspective.
Returning to the weekly chart, the message is actually very direct.
The last two weeks saw narrow accumulation.
The week displayed classic and confusing upward manipulation.
Piercing the weekly FVG and quickly reversing after touching the high-level PD Array,
ultimately completed by a large bearish candle indicating distribution.
Standing in the present, the logic of the weekly AMD has completed.
The peak formed by last week's spike and pullback,
is currently the strongest defensive high point in the market.
Before this logic fails, I do not expect the price to break through effectively again.
Therefore, the overall bias remains bearish,
but not chasing at low levels.
What I care about is not whether it will drop, but how it will retrace.
Next, we only observe a few areas:
whether it returns near last week's engulfing candlestick,
or back to the premium zone of the distribution phase.
As long as there is resistance at key resistance levels,
and the structure transition is completed in the mid-cycle,
that is the entry condition with high probability.
The target is very clear:
it is not about betting on a rebound,
but rather waiting for the conditions to mature before addressing deeper liquidity.
Before that, I was only doing one thing—waiting.
This is merely a personal perspective and trading record sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice.$BTC
