๐ $RIVER Perp โ Technical & Derivatives Overview (Price Corrected to ~$77โ86)
๐ Price Action (15m)
Price hit a strong rejection at $86, marking a local top.
Currently consolidating around $77โ78, forming a series of lower highs.
Trading below EMA(7) and EMA(25), indicating short-term bearish pressure.
Still above EMA(99) at ~$74, so the broader uptrend is intact.
๐ Momentum (RSI)
RSI(6) โ 34 โ near oversold, but no bullish divergence yet.
RSI(12/24) below 50 โ sellers retain control.
๐งจ Open Interest (5m)
OI decreasing as price moves sideways โ longs are closing, not building.
Suggests distribution/cooldown rather than accumulation.
No major short buildup yet โ potential downside move may come later.
๐ง Top Trader Long/Short Ratio
Shorts dominate (~60%+).
Short positions rising during consolidation โ bearish bias.
Short squeeze only likely if price reclaims $80+ with strong volume.
๐ฏ Key Levels
Resistance: $79.5โ$80 (EMA25 zone)
Support 1: $75
Critical Support 2: $73โ74 (EMA99)
โก Bias & Scenarios
Base Case (High Probability): Sideways movement โ pullback to $74โ75 to reset momentum.
Bull Trap Risk: Weak bounce to $79โ80 without volume โ potential short entry.
Bullish Scenario: Only if $80 is reclaimed cleanly with rising volume and OI.
