· Large wallets ("whales"): Accumulated 454.7 million ADA coins (worth an estimated $161 million) over the past two months.
· Very small wallets: Disposed of 22,000 ADA coins in just the past week.
· Possible explanation: This pattern (buying by the large and selling by the small) is often seen during periods of market pressure as a potential setup for a future recovery when conditions stabilize.
📊 Market performance and current sentiments
· Price: trading near $0.35, down 88% from its all-time high ($3.10 in September 2021). It has seen a decline of 19% over 60 days but is still up 6% since the beginning of this year.
· Market cap to realized value ratio (30-day MVRV): at -7.9%. The negative value indicates that the average current holders of the currency are at a loss (purchase price higher than the current market), which may reduce selling pressure due to the lack of profits they can realize.
· Compared to other currencies: all currencies mentioned in the article have also recorded negative MVRV values:
· Bitcoin (BTC): -3.7%
· Chainlink (LINK): -9.5%
· Ethereum (ETH): -7.6%
· XRP: -5.7%
🏛️ Regulatory and institutional factors
· Regulatory pressures in the United States: Charles Hoskinson (founder of Cardano) criticizes the current administration, believing it has weakened the industry's position compared to the previous administration under Biden and harmed legislative prospects.
· Positive institutional development: CME Group (the largest derivatives exchange in the world) is set to list futures on Cardano on February 9, 2026 (pending regulatory approval), which could provide additional liquidity and credibility.
💎 Summary
Data shows internal distribution movement (selling by small investors and buying by 'whales') amid general negative sentiments in the 'altcoin' market, with technical indicators (like negative MVRV) hinting that selling pressure may ease. The regulatory uncertainty in the United States meets significant institutional steps that may support the currency in the long term.