Gold and silver continue to rise, even reaching a high of $5,200 for gold, reflecting extreme behavior from investors in risk aversion. The market is using the end-of-month window for a short squeeze, meaning that funds are concentrated on buying precious metals within a limited trading window, driving prices up rapidly. Such extreme short squeezes typically occur in environments with high macro uncertainty and ample liquidity.

On the macro front, market expectations for interest rate cuts have been hit. The possibility of a rate cut in the first half of the year has been pushed to the June meeting, which means that funding costs will not decrease in the short term, putting pressure on risk assets and naturally directing funds towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver. In other words, the blockage of declining interest rate expectations → pressure on risk assets → benefits for precious metals, this is the logical chain.

On the fiscal side, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown is as high as 79%, and the market expects it may last more than a week (71%). A government shutdown means a halt in federal spending, which could tighten market liquidity and increase policy uncertainty. Historical experience shows that such events typically enhance the attractiveness of safe-haven assets, so the strong rise in gold and silver is in line with expectations.

In terms of geopolitical risk, the U.S. military's targets have significantly shifted from Iran to Somalia, leading to a decrease in the geopolitical premium of crude oil. This explains why crude oil prices have not been pushed up like precious metals. In other words, the rise in precious metals is primarily driven by policy and macro uncertainty, rather than energy or geopolitical supply shocks.

In summary, the recent market logic can be understood as follows:
1. Policy uncertainty (U.S. government shutdown, delayed interest rate cuts) → capital flight to safety → benefiting gold and silver;
2. Extreme short squeeze amplified at the end of the month window → prices quickly reached high levels;
3. Geopolitical risks shifting to less sensitive areas → crude oil and energy premiums are constrained.

Short-term safe-haven assets have been heavily sought after, with gold and silver bulls achieving comprehensive victories, while risk assets and interest rate-sensitive assets face pressure.