The rise in silver prices has been one of the standout market stories this year, with prices jumping more than 30% over the past two weeks. Most importantly, the upward surge came much faster than Citi's previous expectations, forcing the bank to quickly update its forecasts. 😱

📌 What Citi said:

Maximilian Leighton, head of commodity research at Citi, confirmed that silver has already surpassed the bank's previous target of $100 per ounce (which was $85 just two weeks ago). As a result, Citi has raised its forecasts for the 0–3 month period, expecting an additional increase of 30% to 40%, with the target raised to $150 per ounce.

Leighton stated that silver is now primarily influenced by capital flows rather than traditional fundamentals, describing the movement as resembling gold but with a doubled dose. 💰

🔥 Where does silver stand now?

Silver reached a daily record level of around $117.7, while the gold-to-silver ratio fell below 50, reinforcing Citi's view that silver will outperform gold in the upcoming period.

⚠️ Why might the rise continue?

Citi links this to:

Increasing geopolitical tensions.

Concerns about the Fed's independence.

Strong investment and speculative demand.

As Citi pointed out, China is leading the rise, with contributions from India and broader global demand.
Even with tightening measures in China such as:

Suspending new subscriptions to the Silver ETF.

Raising margin requirements on the Shanghai Exchange.

… However, Citi does not see this significantly stopping demand, as Chinese investors typically follow the trend, which may further tighten the market.

🧠 Historical scenarios:

According to Citi, a return to the previous gold/silver ratio could justify prices in the range of $160–170.
Meanwhile, a return to the lowest ratio after Bretton Woods (14x in 1979) suggests a range of $300 per ounce — but this scenario is considered highly unlikely.

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