Post
Last night Powell's FOMC press conference directly extinguished the dream of interest rate cuts
Old Powell's speech this time was super clear and well-structured, I will go through it one by one:
*1. The economic foundation is as steady as an old dog: Firm Footing into 2026**
The U.S. expanded solidly last year, consumer resilience is strong, corporate investment hasn't stopped, and housing weaknesses are not a big deal. Job growth is slow, but the unemployment rate at 4.4% has stabilized, showing signs of stabilization. The economy hasn't collapsed, nor has it overheated; it's just "doing quite well."
**2. Current interest rates are not considered tight, and may even be somewhat loose**
3.5%-3.75% this range, many colleagues look at the data and feel that "it's hard to say the policy is significantly restrictive." Powell repeatedly emphasized: the policy stance is appropriate now, not obviously restrictive. The meaning is—don't rush to shout too high, hold off for now.
*1. The economic foundation is as steady as an old dog: Firm Footing into 2026**
The U.S. expanded solidly last year, consumer resilience is strong, corporate investment hasn't stopped, and housing weaknesses are not a big deal. Job growth is slow, but the unemployment rate at 4.4% has stabilized, showing signs of stabilization. The economy hasn't collapsed, nor has it overheated; it's just "doing quite well."
**2. Current interest rates are not considered tight, and may even be somewhat loose**
3.5%-3.75% this range, many colleagues look at the data and feel that "it's hard to say the policy is significantly restrictive." Powell repeatedly emphasized: the policy stance is appropriate now, not obviously restrictive. The meaning is—don't rush to shout too high, hold off for now.
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