Jerome Powell’s FOMC press conference sent a quiet but powerful signal: the tightening cycle is over.
The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% with a 10–2 vote, and Powell was clear: “A rate hike is not anyone’s base case.” No one is talking about hikes anymore. The question now is how long before cuts begin.
Inflation is still above target, but the Fed says most of it comes from tariffs, not demand. Without tariffs, core inflation is already near 2%. Growth remains resilient, unemployment is stabilizing, and current policy is already restrictive enough.
Powell warned that U.S. deficits are unsustainable, helping push gold higher as a hedge against long-term risk. The Fed remains independent, tariffs are seen as a one-time price shock, and shutdown risks are viewed as temporary.
Big picture:
The Fed is done hiking.
Inflation pressure is fading.
Financial conditions are no longer tightening.
The next move is a cut, not a hike.
Markets are no longer waiting for more restriction.
They’re waiting for easing to begin.
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