I believe this is definitely the issue that everyone is most concerned about right now. Gold has risen by 27.84% this month, and silver has risen by 65.48% this month. This is almost the best single-month performance in nearly 40 years. Many analysts exclaim that the rise has already gotten out of control, and price predictions have failed.
First of all, the three core logics supporting the long-term rise of gold have not changed at all:
1️⃣Crisis of Trust in Global Sovereign Currency
2️⃣Global Political and Economic Instability Cycle
3️⃣Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Cycle
Currently, these three logics are accelerating and fermenting intensively, jointly driving the extreme market conditions for gold and silver! Should we sell now? If we talk about potential negative factors in the short term, there are certainly some, such as progress in Iran negotiations, progress in ew negotiations, and the re-acceleration of inflation in the United States. These are all risk factors that are unpredictable in the short term and could lead to a decline in gold and silver. However, will these factors change the long-term logic of gold's rise?
Obviously not. So is it just a matter of whether you need to hedge against these short-term factors now?
When you exit early, it is itself a risk; no one can exit at the peak, it essentially relies on luck. If you exited last Friday when gold broke through $5000, then unfortunately, you would have missed a 10% increase in just 4 trading days this week. Isn't that itself a risk? Therefore, the risk of missing out on gold is greater than the risk of making a wrong move.
Should we sell now?
In the long term, the upward trend of gold still exists, and there is a risk of missing out on short-term sales. If you cannot bear the potential risk of a pullback, do not regret missing out, and just want to maintain current profits, please sell according to your risk preference. No one can accurately predict whether the future will definitely rise or when a decline will occur; we can only make decisions suitable for ourselves based on our understanding and risk preferences.
Of course, you can also reduce your position in batches to achieve dynamic balance.
Can we buy now?
Due to a long-term bullish view on gold, it still has investment value. However, gold is not without potential negative factors; when these factors occur, gold will still decline. If you want to buy now, you must consider the potential adjustments in gold's future. You cannot rush in just because gold is rising well; if it drops, you start to panic sell, in which case you will definitely incur losses.