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奋斗咖puppies
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🔥Countdown to US Government Shutdown🔥: A showdown of 'cash capabilities' between the two parties, how will the market play?
$BTC $ETH
As of January 30, 2026, the probability of a US government shutdown has soared to 77%, and market risk aversion sentiment is rising sharply. Bitcoin (BTC) is under short-term pressure, falling below $90,000, while Ethereum (ETH) momentarily dropped below $2,850.
Government Shutdown Risk Index
77%
BTC
$87,158
ETH
$2,847
Key Signals: Three Major Triggers
1. Budget Game: Can Temporary Funding Resolve the Shutdown?
The Senate Democrats have initiated a voting process for the Department of Homeland Security's 'two-week lifeline fund', but the House Republicans still insist on budget cuts. Historical data shows that during the three shutdowns in 1995, 2013, and 2018, the market rebounded by an average of 2.91% within one month after the shutdown. The core of this game is the fiscal year 2026 budget proposal, and whether the temporary funding bill can pass will directly determine whether the government can operate normally this weekend.
2. Regulatory Bill: The 'anchor' for the crypto market remains unresolved
The 'CLARITY Act', originally scheduled for review in January 2026, has been postponed twice, and leading exchanges like Coinbase have withdrawn their support. A government shutdown will cause regulatory bodies such as the SEC and CFTC to suspend operations, potentially further delaying the introduction of key crypto regulatory policies.
3. Liquidity Spillover: Funds flowing to safe-haven assets
The risk of a shutdown has heightened market risk aversion sentiment, with the US Bitcoin spot ETF recording a net outflow of $1.33 billion in the week of January 23, marking the worst single-week performance since February 2025. Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver have reached historical highs, with funds shifting from high-risk assets to more certain ones.
Historical Reflection: How Does a Shutdown Affect the Crypto Market?
Historical Shutdowns
2013
BTC +14%
2018-2019
BTC -6%
Looking back at history, the impact of government shutdowns on the crypto market shows a clear duality:
Short-term Shock: The shutdown leads to delays in releasing key economic data, institutional funds hold back, and market volatility increases.
Long-term Resilience: After the end of a shutdown, the market often rebounds. During the 2013 shutdown, Bitcoin actually rose by 14%.
Regulatory Vacuum: During the shutdown, regulatory bodies like the SEC suspend operations, which may delay the introduction of key crypto policies but also reduce regulatory pressure.
Short-term Operation: Focus on the $90,000 support level
#金价再冲高位 #代币化白银热潮
{future}(BTCUSDT)
{future}(ETHUSDT)
$BTC $ETH
As of January 30, 2026, the probability of a US government shutdown has soared to 77%, and market risk aversion sentiment is rising sharply. Bitcoin (BTC) is under short-term pressure, falling below $90,000, while Ethereum (ETH) momentarily dropped below $2,850.
Government Shutdown Risk Index
77%
BTC
$87,158
ETH
$2,847
Key Signals: Three Major Triggers
1. Budget Game: Can Temporary Funding Resolve the Shutdown?
The Senate Democrats have initiated a voting process for the Department of Homeland Security's 'two-week lifeline fund', but the House Republicans still insist on budget cuts. Historical data shows that during the three shutdowns in 1995, 2013, and 2018, the market rebounded by an average of 2.91% within one month after the shutdown. The core of this game is the fiscal year 2026 budget proposal, and whether the temporary funding bill can pass will directly determine whether the government can operate normally this weekend.
2. Regulatory Bill: The 'anchor' for the crypto market remains unresolved
The 'CLARITY Act', originally scheduled for review in January 2026, has been postponed twice, and leading exchanges like Coinbase have withdrawn their support. A government shutdown will cause regulatory bodies such as the SEC and CFTC to suspend operations, potentially further delaying the introduction of key crypto regulatory policies.
3. Liquidity Spillover: Funds flowing to safe-haven assets
The risk of a shutdown has heightened market risk aversion sentiment, with the US Bitcoin spot ETF recording a net outflow of $1.33 billion in the week of January 23, marking the worst single-week performance since February 2025. Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver have reached historical highs, with funds shifting from high-risk assets to more certain ones.
Historical Reflection: How Does a Shutdown Affect the Crypto Market?
Historical Shutdowns
2013
BTC +14%
2018-2019
BTC -6%
Looking back at history, the impact of government shutdowns on the crypto market shows a clear duality:
Short-term Shock: The shutdown leads to delays in releasing key economic data, institutional funds hold back, and market volatility increases.
Long-term Resilience: After the end of a shutdown, the market often rebounds. During the 2013 shutdown, Bitcoin actually rose by 14%.
Regulatory Vacuum: During the shutdown, regulatory bodies like the SEC suspend operations, which may delay the introduction of key crypto policies but also reduce regulatory pressure.
Short-term Operation: Focus on the $90,000 support level
#金价再冲高位 #代币化白银热潮
{future}(BTCUSDT)
{future}(ETHUSDT)
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