Cryptocurrency market analysis for today, February 1, 2026. The overall cryptocurrency market is showing significant downward pressure due to global macroeconomic factors and asset sell-offs, with Bitcoin (BTC) dominating market fluctuations. The price of Bitcoin is currently hovering around $77,700, having dropped nearly 10% this week, reaching a nine-month low below $78,000. This has triggered large-scale liquidations totaling over $2.2 billion, primarily concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) futures. The price of Ethereum remains stable above $3,000 but has fallen about 5% in the last 24 hours; Solana (SOL) has dropped 9.24% to around $104; XRP and Shiba Inu (SHIB) performed even worse, with SHIB recording the worst single-day decline of 2026. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has shrunk to about $2.66 trillion, with a daily drop of 6%. The main drivers of this round of decline include:
Macroeconomic linkage: The severe sell-off of gold and silver (down 9% and 30% respectively, marking the largest single-day drop since 1980) has led to a de-leveraging effect, prompting investors to sell crypto assets to cover losses. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets has increased, and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.50-3.75% on January 28 further exacerbates risk-averse sentiment.
Technical analysis: The monthly Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have narrowed to historical lows, suggesting potential explosive volatility, but currently leaning downward. Market predictions show a 90% probability of Bitcoin's price being below $80,000 in February, and an 88% probability of being below $75,000.
Liquidity and sentiment: Thin weekend liquidity amplifies declines, institutional ETF outflows slow, but retail panic selling intensifies. Meanwhile, stock futures are also affected, dropping by 0.6-1%.
Despite short-term pressure, historical data shows February is favorable for Bitcoin (average increase of 14%), and oversold signals (e.g., RSI) suggest a potential rebound. However, if it drops below $77,000, it may test support levels at $75,000-$76,000. The upcoming political and financial events in 2026 will be driven by multiple political and financial events, which may bring regulatory clarity and institutional capital inflows, but also come with geopolitical risks. Here are key events and potential impacts:
Regulatory progress (short-term high impact): The U.S. Congress is expected to pass the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Clarity Act) in early 2026, providing a framework for the classification, trading, and regulation of crypto assets, clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC. This builds on the 2025 GENIUS Act (stablecoin regulation) and may stimulate institutional adoption, driving demand for Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins. The EU's MiCA and Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations will also accelerate implementation. Positive impact: Boosts market confidence, potentially attracting new capital; negative: Short-term compliance costs rise.
Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomics (sustained impact): The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2026, gradually approaching a low of 3% and pausing quantitative tightening. The non-farm payroll data on February 6 and the CPI report on February 11 will be crucial; if inflation becomes less sticky, it will favor risk assets. Global liquidity improvement may drive demand for Bitcoin as an 'alternative store of value'.
Trump's policies and geopolitical issues (medium-term high risk): The Trump administration's pro-crypto stance continues, potentially including tariffs of 25-60%, sanctions on Iran/Venezuela, and support for crypto innovation +4. However, tariff threats could trigger supply chain inflation and risk-averse sentiment. The Trump family's World Liberty Financial is applying for a banking license, which may raise conflict of interest concerns. If the Democratic Party wins the midterm elections in November, it may reverse pro-crypto policies, leading to market adjustments.
Infrastructure and industry events (opportunity-oriented): February has a dense schedule of catalysts, including Zama (February 2 TGE), MegaETH mainnet (February 9), potential Aztec TGE (February 12), as well as Solana Firedancer beta and Cardano Chang hard fork. These may drive narratives around privacy, AI, and Layer 2. Throughout the year, institutional adoption is accelerating, and market predictions show Bitcoin's dominance dropping below 35%, with increased rotation opportunities for altcoins. Reports of illegal activities indicate that crypto money laundering could reach $82 billion in 2025, with sanctions focusing on drugs and cyber threats in 2026.
Overall, the theme for 2026 is 'Dawn of the Institutional Era', with macro demand and regulatory clarity driving growth; however, volatility and geopolitical risks could lead to a 30% correction. The long-term target for Bitcoin is optimistic, with analysts predicting it could reach $124,000-$150,000 in Q1, and possibly $240,000-$300,000 for the year. The upcoming operational principles are based on current market conditions and event predictions, and here are practical operational principles (not financial advice, based on market data and trends):
Risk management priority: Set stop-loss levels (e.g., Bitcoin at $77,000), using no more than 5% of total capital. Avoid leveraged trading during high volatility to prevent liquidation.
Accumulation strategy at lows: Gradually buy core assets (e.g., BTC, ETH) during oversold signals (e.g., RSI<30), targeting a rebound above $90,000. Pay attention to short-term opportunities from February's infrastructure TGE (e.g., Zama, MegaETH), but be wary of unlocking pressure (e.g., Aptos $50 million).
Event-driven trading: Monitor non-farm payroll on February 6 and CPI on February 11; if the data is favorable, increase risk exposure; prioritize institutional-related assets (e.g., stablecoins, RWA) if the CLARITY Act progresses positively. Lock in profits before the midterm elections.
Diversification and rotation: After Bitcoin dominance, shift towards altcoins (AI, privacy narratives), targeting ETH and SOL, etc. Institutional inflows are favorable for long-term holding, but avoid high-beta assets in the short term.
Long-term perspective: Assuming regulatory clarity and improved liquidity, shift towards sustainable growth rather than speculation by 2026. Regularly review and adjust positions based on on-chain data (e.g., old holders selling being absorbed by institutions).
High market uncertainty, it is recommended to conduct independent research based on individual risk tolerance.