Market overview: Both cryptocurrencies weakened collectively, support turned into resistance with intensified selling pressure.
At the beginning of the year, the strong expectations were completely reversed. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell sharply and then weakened after the decline, with key support continuously being breached and rebound momentum extremely lacking.
- Bitcoin: Plummeted from around 83000 to 75636, the 77000-79400 fluctuation range was broken, lowest dipped to 75658, rebounded to 78000 and then weakened again to around 76500, the 80000 level turned from support to strong resistance;
- Ethereum: Overall performance weaker than Bitcoin, fell sharply from 2680 to 2231, the 2370-2470 fluctuation range was broken, lowest reached 2219 refreshing recent lows, the 2500 level became strong resistance, currently consolidating around 2270.
Core logic: Multiple negative factors resonate, the short-term core contradiction is digesting the negatives and clearing leverage.
This deep correction is not caused by a single factor but is the result of multiple negative factors in macroeconomics, funds, and market sentiment overlapping, with long-term positives temporarily suppressed.
1. Macroeconomic aspect: Global trade tensions escalate + delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts, suppressing risk appetite, leading to outflows from cryptocurrency assets; the correlation between Bitcoin and the yen reaches a historical high, weakening its independent asset attribute.
2. Funding aspect: The inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF funds slows down or even reverses, institutions begin to exit; market liquidity tightens, high-leverage long positions in futures lead to a vicious cycle of 'decline - forced liquidation - accelerated decline';
3. Long-term positives: The advancement of the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework, Ethereum's leading position in the RWA tokenization field remains unchanged, only the short-term market rhythm is dominated by negative factors.
Trend analysis and trading strategy.
Bitcoin (BTC): Daily bearish arrangement, 75000-75500 is key support.
Trend analysis: Daily bearish arrangement, price continues to operate below the 5/10/20-day moving averages, after breaking the 77000-79400 fluctuation range forms a short-term double bottom, but trading volume has not increased, questioning the validity of the double bottom.
- Core support: 75000-75500 area (double bottom position + previous transaction dense area), if broken with volume, it could drop to around 72000, and further look towards a level starting with 6;
- Upper resistance: 79000-80000 area (yesterday's upper range + round number), requires significant volume to stabilize and alleviate short-term weakness.
Trading strategy: prioritize defense, mainly wait and see, firmly avoid blind bottom-fishing; if a rebound encounters resistance in the 78500-79000 range, lightly look for a pullback.
Ethereum (ETH): Clear bearish structure, 2200-2230 is the last defense line for bulls.
Trend analysis: exhibiting a bearish structure of 'lower lows and lower highs', weaker than Bitcoin, prices far from short-term moving averages, no significant increase in trading volume for rises or falls, strong cautious sentiment among funds, lack of support for short-term rebound demand.
- Core support: 2200-2230 area (today's low + Saturday's low), if broken, it will directly drop to the 2000 round number;
- Upper resistance: 2400-2470 area (yesterday's fluctuation range), if rebound meets resistance, it is highly likely to fall again.
Trading strategy: primarily wait-and-see, if a rebound encounters resistance in the 2350-2400 range, continue to look for a pullback.
Investment reminder.
This article's market analysis and strategy suggestions are for reference only. The cryptocurrency market changes rapidly, and there may be delays in sending articles. Any trading operation must include stop-loss and take-profit measures, and remember that securing profits is paramount.