My observation draws a red thread because it touches on the seasonal patterns that are often discussed by market participants. Historically, the period from December to May is often characterized by high volatility, but the trend of "sharp correction" does not always occur every year in the same way.
Here is a summary of the data and factors affecting market movements during this period:
1. Historical Data: Is There Always a Correction?
December: The phenomenon of the "Santa Claus Rally" often occurs where prices rise towards the end of the year due to investor optimism. However, in 2024 and 2025, the market experienced selling pressure at the end of December due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and profit-taking actions.
January - February: Statistically, January often becomes a month of recovery with an average price increase of Bitcoin around +9.76%.
May: This month has a bad reputation with the saying "Sell in May and Go Away". A real example occurred in May 2021, where Bitcoin fell 30% and Ethereum 40% in a short time. In May 2022, prices also plummeted sharply to below $30,000 due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
2. Why Does This Trend Occur?
Several reasons why the period from the end of the year to mid-year often experiences corrections:
Tax-Loss Harvesting: In some countries, investors sell losing assets in December to reduce their tax burden, which adds selling pressure to the market.
Macro Policy: The beginning of the year often becomes a moment when central banks (such as The Fed) announce new interest rate plans, which significantly affect investor interest in risky assets like crypto.
Halving Cycle: The crypto market tends to follow Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle related to halving events.
3. Current Conditions (Early 2026)
As of the end of January 2026, the crypto market is reported to still be in a correction phase after a long rally in the previous year. Some experts even predict that 2025-2026 will be a challenging period for investors.
Here is a summary of the data and factors affecting market movements during this period:
1. Historical Data: Is There Always a Correction?
December: The phenomenon of the "Santa Claus Rally" often occurs where prices rise towards the end of the year due to investor optimism. However, in 2024 and 2025, the market experienced selling pressure at the end of December due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and profit-taking actions.
January - February: Statistically, January often becomes a month of recovery with an average price increase of Bitcoin around +9.76%.
May: This month has a bad reputation with the saying "Sell in May and Go Away". A real example occurred in May 2021, where Bitcoin fell 30% and Ethereum 40% in a short time. In May 2022, prices also plummeted sharply to below $30,000 due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
2. Why Does This Trend Occur?
Several reasons why the period from the end of the year to mid-year often experiences corrections:
Tax-Loss Harvesting: In some countries, investors sell losing assets in December to reduce their tax burden, which adds selling pressure to the market.
Macro Policy: The beginning of the year often becomes a moment when central banks (such as The Fed) announce new interest rate plans, which significantly affect investor interest in risky assets like crypto.
Halving Cycle: The crypto market tends to follow Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle related to halving events.
3. Current Conditions (Early 2026)
As of the end of January 2026, the crypto market is reported to still be in a correction phase after a long rally in the previous year. Some experts even predict that 2025-2026 will be a challenging period for investors.