Market Overview
After experiencing a macro storm and liquidity crisis at the end of January, the cryptocurrency market has started a technical rebound at a critical low, still in the repair and bottoming phase, not a trend reversal, but rather the first intense game between bulls and bears at a key position after a sharp decline. Bitcoin rebounds relying on support at $74,500-$75,000, facing resistance at $79,500-$80,000; Ethereum's movement is correlated but weak, with a rebound hampered at $2,400, overall fund preference and speculative enthusiasm are both lacking.
Core Contradiction
- Suppressive Factors: The expectation of a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve suppresses risk appetite, institutional ETF fund inflows are cautious, trading in the derivatives market is quiet, and selling pressure from short-term holders creates resistance.
- Positive signal: Significant relief of spot selling pressure, Ethereum network fundamentals (record trading volume, fees at a low point) are strong, and the long-term narrative of RWA tokenization super cycle provides industry support.
- Future market judgment: The market has shifted from a one-sided decline to a wide range of fluctuations, with the core being to digest the selling pressure above, and a clear long-short standoff pattern.
Bitcoin (BTC) intraday trend analysis and trading strategy
Trend characteristics
After touching the low of 74565 USD, a rebound pattern of raising the low point formed, but the rebound strength gradually weakened, and both attempts to hit 79300 USD failed to break effectively, with significant long-short divergence and insufficient rebound momentum.
Key levels
- Resistance: First resistance 79300-79500 USD (recent rebound high + previous consolidation platform lower edge), once broken with volume, can test the 80000 integer level and near 81000 USD; second resistance 80000-81000 USD.
- Support: Intraday dynamic support 76800 USD (yesterday's low rebound neckline); core support 74500-75000 USD, breaking below will test psychological levels of 72000, 70000 USD.
Trading strategy
Light positions for trial and error, relying on range speculation, strictly manage take profit and stop loss.
Ethereum (ETH) intraday trend analysis and trading strategy
Trend characteristics
Highly correlated with Bitcoin but the rebound strength is weak, when Bitcoin rebounds nearly 6%, ETH's high is capped, with lower capital attention; the 4-hour RSI rebounds to neutral territory, and MACD shows signs of a low-position golden cross, short-term downward momentum is temporarily halted, and a strong upward momentum has not yet formed.
Key levels
- Resistance: First resistance 2380-2400 USD (yesterday's rebound high + 4-hour Bollinger band midline); second resistance 2450-2500 USD (previous consolidation platform lower edge).
- Support: Intraday balance point 2280-2300 USD; core support 2150-2200 USD, breaking below will face a test at 2000 USD.
Trading strategy
Range fluctuation, buy high sell low, avoid chasing highs and cutting losses, strictly manage take profit and stop loss, secure profits.
Risk warning: There may be delays in article dissemination, strategy suggestions are for reference only, cryptocurrency markets change rapidly, trading requires caution.
