Important Information
【Senate Democrats will hold a closed-door meeting again tomorrow on the (CLARITY Act)】
Multiple crypto media/journalist sources indicate that Senate Democrats plan to continue closed-door discussions on the (CLARITY Act) (crypto market structure/regulatory framework) on February 5, following the internal 're-evaluation' after the last Senate review was obstructed.
Impact/Insight: The closed-door meeting suggests that divergences are still in the 'internal digestion' phase, and the short-term market will interpret it as a signal for negotiations to resume; however, it also indicates that key controversies in the bill (such as stablecoin yields/rewards, DeFi boundaries, SEC/CFTC jurisdictional divisions, ethical clauses, etc.) may still slow the pace and affect the pricing of U.S. regulatory expectations.
Industry Dynamics
[Coinbase Launches Prediction Market Coinbase Predict]
Coinbase has launched an event contract trading entry called 'Coinbase Predict' in collaboration with Kalshi, a prediction market platform regulated by the CFTC, allowing users to trade various event outcome contracts (such as sports, economic indicators, etc.) within the United States, emphasizing that the compliance framework comes from Kalshi.
Related Asset: COIN (NASDAQ:COIN) — The new business line is viewed by the market as Coinbase's action to 'expand product offerings/increase user engagement,' while it may also bring compliance scrutiny and public controversy.
[Chinese Insurance Company Tianrui Xiang Plans to Exchange Equity for $1.1 Billion in Bitcoin]
Tianrui Xiang disclosed that it has signed an agreement with an unnamed strategic investor to exchange company equity for 15,000 BTC (implied to be about $1.1 billion at the time of reporting) and plans to engage in deeper cooperation in AI and cryptocurrency; the news has triggered significant fluctuations in its stock price and speculative trading.
Related Asset: BTC (as a narrative increment for 'public company Bitcoin treasury'); TIRX (NASDAQ:TIRX) (news-driven high volatility target)
Price Dynamics
[Bitcoin]$BTC
Driving Analysis: The main narrative of public opinion today still revolves around the uncertainty of advancing legislation related to the structure of the U.S. market (CLARITY-related negotiations/closed-door meeting expectations) and disputes over 'stablecoin reward clauses'; coupled with the market's repeated pricing of regulatory paths, BTC experienced significant fluctuations during the day.
[Coinbase (COIN)]
As of February 4, 2026, at 21:40, the pre-market price of COIN was $179.66, a change of -4.34% from the previous close.
Driving Analysis: The volatility of COIN is related to two parallel lines: one is the political/industry game surrounding the CLARITY bill, which is still fermenting (the market has highly focused on Coinbase's changing stance on the bill text); the other is the growth imagination brought by Coinbase's promotion of new products, such as prediction markets, coexisting with compliance controversies, making it easier for short-term movements to be influenced by macro regulatory narratives.
