Just now during the live broadcast, a brother asked me: 'Why has there been such a sudden sharp drop recently?'

My answer at the time was actually very simple: it's not that the coin had a problem, but that the combination of 'commodity attributes + emotional resonance + supply-demand imbalance' happened simultaneously.

Many people think this is purely a technical correction, while others believe it is the market makers crashing the price. But from my perspective, this is a very typical scenario — macro risks trigger → commodities weaken → risk appetite declines → the crypto market is passively pressured.

Let me share a real situation. A few years ago, when the pandemic first started, the price of masks skyrocketed; during the SARS period, Banlangen was sold out. Did you think it was because 'masks became more valuable'? Or that 'Banlangen could really cure diseases'? Neither. The essence is just one sentence: demand was suddenly magnified infinitely, while supply couldn't keep up at all.

But the more critical point is the second stage. When the price rises to a certain height, some people start to be unable to keep up. As a result, inventory accumulates, sentiment reverses, and prices quickly fall back. This is not a conspiracy; it is the most basic market principle: when prices are so high that the market cannot continue to absorb them, the chips that were pushed up before will all turn into selling pressure.

Returning to the crypto market, it’s actually the same. The earlier rise relied on: ETF expectations + interest rate cut expectations + overall warming of risk assets. A large amount of capital entered the market early, pushing prices to a 'high consensus area.'

But recently several things have piled up: rising macro uncertainty, divergence in US stock sentiment, increasing geopolitical risks, and funds beginning to reassess risk exposure. So the result is only one: at high levels, no one is willing to continue holding, and the structure naturally turns bearish.

This is what I said in the live broadcast: when the price reaches a certain height, and the market does not accept it, the chips that were pushed in earlier have no one to take them, which will form a 'castle in the air.' It is not that things suddenly turn bad; the original logic of rising has been paused by reality.

To be frank. The current crypto market is no longer just a simple coin circle situation but has completely entered a phase of global risk asset interconnection. US stock sentiment, macro expectations, geopolitical risks—any change in these will directly transmit to the crypto space. So my view of the market now has only one core question: it's not about asking 'will there be a rebound,' but rather asking—are funds still willing to continue bearing risk?

My personal view is also very clear: in this stage, I would rather be slower than to heavily bear the load when emotions are most chaotic. Those who have experienced a pullback will understand: there will always be another wave in the market, but the account may not. The most important thing now is not to catch the lowest point, but to protect the principal and wait for the real structure to emerge again. Surviving is essential for the next opportunity.#BTC何时反弹？ @黑手Garry