The tech stocks on the US market have dropped to the point where even their mothers wouldn't recognize them. The Nasdaq has lost the market value of a whole France this week, and there are still people shouting that $BTC is a safe haven. Wake up. Looking at that heartbreaking bearish candle, anyone who hasn't been completely brainwashed can understand that all this talk of digital gold and independent markets is nonsense in the face of liquidity drying up. The current crypto market is essentially a twenty-fold leveraged shadow of the Nasdaq; as soon as the big shots in Silicon Valley feel that the AI narrative is losing steam and reduce their holdings, our market will immediately turn red.
The logic behind this wave of selling is actually very simple. Over the past year, everyone has been speculating on the tech bubble driven by AI, which has pushed $BTC and $ETH to heights that don't belong to them. Now that the earnings reports are out, the AI input-output ratio for the big companies hasn't met expectations, and the capital market is turning around faster than flipping a page. At this point, those high-net-worth individuals and institutions who entered through ETFs are not responding by increasing their positions but are instead rushing to flatten this risk asset. Just look at the recent net outflow data for $BTC spot ETFs; it's simply heartbreaking. Don't think that institutions are here to catch the falling knife; they are here to harvest liquidity, and once the wind changes for tech stocks, they will withdraw faster than anyone else.
To be honest, I feel that the current market sentiment is nearing freezing point. Everyone is watching Nvidia's every move; this is really dull. Clearly, the goal is decentralization, but the lifeblood is all in the hands of the Federal Reserve and a few tech giants. Many people ask me where this round of correction will end; actually, you're asking the wrong person. You should ask Powell or those hedge funds heavily invested in AI. As long as the tech stock sell-off doesn't stop, $BTC won't have any independent performance.
The core issue now is that the leverage hasn't been cleared out yet. I just looked at the liquidation data across the network, and that long string of numbers is alarming. Many old investors are waiting for a so-called golden pit, but I advise you to wait a bit longer. This type of sell-off triggered by macro liquidity has never been resolved in just a day or two. The current rebound is basically a trap to entice buyers; don't think that just because there's a rise, a bull market is returning. That's just an attempt to lure you in as fuel.
Personally, I think this is actually a good thing, kicking out those speculators who fantasize about making easy profits from halving. The market needs a thorough reshuffle to squeeze out the tech stock bubble and the leverage from the crypto space together. When people stop talking about $BTC reaching $100,000 and start discussing whether it has any value at all, that's when the real opportunity will emerge.
Lastly, let me say a few words. If the Nasdaq breaks through the key support level, the winter for risk assets is just beginning. Are you planning to follow the crowd and cut losses, or do you think this is a perfect opportunity to position for the next cycle? Let's discuss in the comments; I want to see how many people are still awake.