bitcoinspotetf1bweeklyoutflow

La reciente corrección del mercado cripto, que llevó a Bitcoin a retroceder desde sus máximos intermedios de mayo cercanos a los $82,800 hasta la zona actualizada de los $77,000 - $76,900, responde a una confluencia de factores macroeconómicos, geopolíticos y de liquidez interna.
Corresponde primero a Catalizadores Macroeconómicos (Hawkish Repricing)
Los últimos datos macroeconómicos de EE. UU. sacudieron el tablero de riesgo global.
Inflación persistente del IPC de abril se indexó en 3.8% y el IPP sorprendió con un fuerte repunte al 6%.
Tasas altas por más tiempo, lo Esto destruyó el optimismo del mercado sobre recortes de tasas a corto plazo por parte de la Reserva Federal (las probabilidades en Polymarket para "cero recortes de tasas en 2026" subieron al 62%).
Rendimientos de Bonos del Tesoro a 10 años escaló al 4.63%, mientras que los bonos a 20 y 30 años rompieron la barrera del 5.1%. Para el capital institucional, un rendimiento garantizado de esa magnitud extrae liquidez de los activos de riesgo sin rendimiento nativo (non-yielding assets) como las criptomonedas.
La Geopolítica y el "Shock" de Commodities, poder tensiones en el Estrecho de Hormuz que volvieron a encenderse tras advertencias directas de la administración estadounidense hacia Irán señalando que "el tiempo corre". Esto provocó una reacción en cadena:
El crudo Brent saltó a $111.42 y el WTI superó los $107.
Históricamente, los picos agudos de volatilidad energética impulsan algoritmos de cobertura clásica (risk-off), provocando salidas inmediatas de posiciones apalancadas en cripto.
A una Cascada de Liquidaciones y Flujos
Cómo La trampa de los toros, con La ruptura de soportes intermedios agarró sobre-apalancados a los traders de derivados. Se registraron cerca de $700 millones en liquidaciones totales (con más de $550 millones correspondientes puramente a posiciones largas/longs).
También hay que mencionar Salidas de ETFs, que quebró la racha positiva de 6 semanas consecutivas de entradas netas en los ETFs de Bitcoin al contado en EE. UU., registrando salidas por más de $1,150 millones acumulados en la última semana.
Otro punto importante es la Presión de Mineros, El análisis on-chain reporta que los mineros capitalizaron ganancias distribuyendo aproximadamente 800 BTC (~$64M) directos al mercado en las últimas 96 horas, saturando la demanda del order book.
Proyección a Corto Plazo:
El mercado cripto se está moviendo con un coeficiente de correlación extremadamente alto respecto a activos sensibles a tasas (como el Russell 2000). Es muy probable que experimentemos un comportamiento lateral y "sucio" (choppy market) en el rango de los $75,000 - $79,500 durante los próximos días. El mercado está absorbiendo los datos de inflación y se mantendrá defensivo a la espera de la reunión del FOMC fijada para el 17 de junio.
Todo es espero que ayude a despejar un poco de dudas e incertidumbre que hay del mercado, solo queda,
tener paciencia.
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I’ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 years… This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do.
In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses.
This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about.
Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies
Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is.
Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions.
The Two Trading Styles
Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend)
One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts.
Let’s consider this through a visual example.
Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher).
Momentum assumes the level will break.
You’re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken.
Mean reversion assumes the level will hold.
You’re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling.
Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies.
There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned.
The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy).
Lesson 1 Summary
There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment
Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment
Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money.
Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout.
You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out.
That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment.
The Rowing Analogy
Imagine you’re rowing a boat.
You either row against or with the current.
One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort.
Your boat, or rowing technique, didn’t change… Only your environment did.
Trading is the same.
Your strategy is your boat.
Your optimal trade environment is the current.
Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current).
Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level?
What you WANT:
A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement.
What you DON’T want:
A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum.
The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further.
Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly.
→ Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles.
Real Trade Example:
Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal ‘price approach to level’ for momentum.
Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅
Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like?
Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it.
What you WANT:
Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum.
What you DON’T want:
Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?)
Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic.
This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact.
Real Trade Example:
Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume.
Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅Filter 2: clearly increasing volume ✅
Lastly,
Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers
This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum).
What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend.
What you DON’T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision.
Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation.
Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average).
✍️Quick Actionable Step:
To add the 30SMMA on your charts:
Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30"
Real Trade Example:
Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase ✅
Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume ✅
Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers ✅
🎓Lesson 2 Summary
Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum
Lesson 3: Identifying Setups
Now you know what momentum is.
You also know the optimal conditions for it.
Next, you need to know where to execute these trades.
Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels
Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently.
I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article.
Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals.
Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article.
Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart
Once you’ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing.
Why 1-minute chart?
You learn faster.
More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology.
I’ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article.
Real Trade Example:
Step 3: Three Filters
Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2:
Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)?
If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions.
🎓Lesson 3 Summary
Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly
Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit
You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions.
Now you need precise execution.
Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup.
This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution.
Step 4: Entry Trigger
We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing.
Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing.
Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward.
→ Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you.
Real Trade Example:
Step 5: Stop Loss
A swing low is:
the lowest wick in a pullback.
Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout.
Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if it’s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility
Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If it’s less than 1%, use the next swing low down.
Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop)
Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction
If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
Why 1R? It’s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. You’re not trying to catch the entire move, you’re taking a high-probability piece of it.
Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, you’re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach.
Real Trade Example:
🎓Lesson 4 summary
Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way.
Immediate Next Steps✍️:
Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria
🎓 Final Summary
Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion
Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment.
Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge.
Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment
High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely.
Lesson 3: Identifying Setups
Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade.
Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit
Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way.
🎓What Changes From Here
The next time price approaches resistance, you won’t have to guess if it will break out.
You’ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through.
You’ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets.
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#BitcoinSpotETF1BWeeklyOutflow
$FIDA $FIDA
Tendencia: ALTA (Estructura de reversión alcista tras romper cuña descendente diaria. El precio consolida fuerza y busca mitigar zonas de liquidez superior).
Zona Entrada Ideal: $0.0155 - $0.0163
TP1: $0.0178
TP2: $0.0195
TP3: $0.0215
Stop Loss (SL): $0.0142 (Invalida el setup perdiendo el soporte clave del último mínimo menor)

Interesting thing started today....
US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), has started the process of injecting a total of $26.3 billion into the market in stages. In the first stage, about $6.5 billion has entered the system. The entire operation will last for three weeks.
The interesting thing is that this kind of news actually changes the mood of the market a little. Because when additional dollars come into the system, many traders asume that risk assets - such as Bitcoin, altcoins or the stock market ..... can get a little breathing space. When liquidity increases, confidence in the market usually increases a little.
But this time the matter does not seem so simple.
On the one hand, the Fed is injecting liquidity, on the other hand, the strength of the dollar is still quite aggressive. Bond yields are also on the rise. These two things are usually not a very comfortable environment for the risk market. So now the question is ...... Will this liquidity really bring fresh momentum to the crypto market, or will it just be a short-term reaction?
Many have already started creating bullish narratives. “Money printer back”, “BTC going higher” are apearing again on the timeline. But looking at the chart, the market still doesn’t seem fully convinced. Especially Bitcoin is still moving below some important resistance zones. The market may not go into fully risk-on mode until there is a clean breakout. One more thing to remember..... The Fed usually does this kind of operation to keep the financial system smooth. It is not to directly pump crypto😅 But market psychology works differently. Traders often become aggressive just by hearing the word liquidity. I think the next few days are going to be interesting. If the liquidity effect improves market sentiment, even if it is short-term, then BTC and major alts can provide some relief move. But if dollar strength and yields continue to increse in the same way, then it may be difficult to sustain the upside.
Overall, the situation is a bit mixed.
On one hand, liquidity injection…..
On the other hand, macro pressure is still alive.
Now it remains to be seen..... which side the market gives more importance to🤔
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