The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big Moves
I’ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 years… This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do. In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses. This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about. Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is. Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions. The Two Trading Styles Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend) One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts. Let’s consider this through a visual example. Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher). Momentum assumes the level will break. You’re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken. Mean reversion assumes the level will hold. You’re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling. Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies. There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned. The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy). Lesson 1 Summary There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money. Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout. You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out. That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment. The Rowing Analogy Imagine you’re rowing a boat. You either row against or with the current. One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort. Your boat, or rowing technique, didn’t change… Only your environment did. Trading is the same. Your strategy is your boat. Your optimal trade environment is the current. Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current). Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level? What you WANT: A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement. What you DON’T want: A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum. The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further. Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly. → Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles. Real Trade Example: Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal ‘price approach to level’ for momentum. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like? Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it. What you WANT: Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum. What you DON’T want: Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?) Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic. This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact. Real Trade Example: Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅Filter 2: clearly increasing volume ✅ Lastly, Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum). What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend. What you DON’T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision. Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation. Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). ✍️Quick Actionable Step: To add the 30SMMA on your charts: Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30" Real Trade Example: Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume ✅ Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers ✅ 🎓Lesson 2 Summary Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Now you know what momentum is. You also know the optimal conditions for it. Next, you need to know where to execute these trades. Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently. I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article. Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals. Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article. Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart Once you’ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing. Why 1-minute chart? You learn faster. More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology. I’ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article. Real Trade Example: Step 3: Three Filters Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2: Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)? If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions. 🎓Lesson 3 Summary Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions. Now you need precise execution. Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup. This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution. Step 4: Entry Trigger We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing. Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing. Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward. → Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you. Real Trade Example: Step 5: Stop Loss A swing low is: the lowest wick in a pullback. Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout. Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if it’s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If it’s less than 1%, use the next swing low down. Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop) Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Why 1R? It’s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. You’re not trying to catch the entire move, you’re taking a high-probability piece of it. Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, you’re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach. Real Trade Example: 🎓Lesson 4 summary Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way. Immediate Next Steps✍️: Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria 🎓 Final Summary Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment. Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge. Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely. Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade. Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way. 🎓What Changes From Here The next time price approaches resistance, you won’t have to guess if it will break out. You’ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through. You’ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets. #CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy
$BTC Searching for something like this on the LTF.
A sweep of the current highs followed by continuation back to the downside. Also, If we keep rejecting 61.7k, we'll front-run the 62.2k level and dump from here instead.
Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio Enters Historical Accumulation Zone
$BTC Adjusted Sell-side Risk Ratio (aSSRR) has once again fallen into an extreme low zone a level that has repeatedly marked periods of accumulation before the next major bullish expansion. Historically, similar readings appeared in early 2019, late 2020, early 2023, and during several consolidation phases that ultimately preceded strong upward trends. The current structure suggests the market is approaching another critical inflection point.
A depressed Sell-side Risk Ratio indicates that realized profits and losses have become relatively small compared to Bitcoin's market value. In practical terms, investors are becoming less willing to sell at current prices, while long-term holders continue to keep coins off the market. This reduction in sell-side pressure often reflects a transition from distribution into accumulation.
Previous cycles show that extended periods below this threshold rarely lasted long. Instead, they were followed by renewed demand, expanding liquidity, and a fresh wave of price appreciation as supply available for sale became increasingly constrained. While the indicator itself does not predict the exact timing of a breakout, it consistently highlights environments where downside selling pressure has largely been exhausted.
From an on-chain and macro perspective, Bitcoin appears to be entering a familiar phase where accumulation dominates market behavior. If capital inflows continue to improve and broader liquidity conditions remain supportive, this historically significant zone could once again serve as the foundation for the next bullish leg, much like the recoveries observed after previous visits to these extreme low readings.
$BTC Miners Continue to Hold Back Distribution as Puell Multiple Revisits Historical Accumulation Zone
The latest reading of the Puell Multiple has declined to around 0.6, placing the indicator back inside a zone that has historically coincided with periods of miner revenue compression. From an on-chain perspective, this reflects that miners are earning significantly less in USD relative to the annual average, reducing the incentive to aggressively distribute newly mined BTC into the market.
Looking across previous cycles, every major drop of the Puell Multiple below 0.5–0.6 has appeared during phases of market stress or prolonged consolidation. While these signals have not identified the exact bottom, they have consistently marked periods where selling pressure from miners became structurally weaker. The current reading follows the same pattern, suggesting that miner-driven supply is becoming increasingly constrained despite recent price weakness.
This dynamic becomes more meaningful when viewed alongside Bitcoin post-halving supply structure. Following the 2024 halving, daily issuance has already been cut in half, meaning any further reduction in miner selling amplifies the ongoing supply contraction. If spot demand remains stable or strengthens through ETF inflows and institutional allocation the market could gradually transition from a distribution-driven environment toward one characterized by tightening available supply.
The Puell Multiple should not be interpreted as a standalone buy signal. Instead, it serves as a valuable macro on-chain indicator that measures the economic condition of Bitcoin miners. At current levels, it indicates that miner capitulation risk is increasing while structural sell-side pressure continues to fade. Historically, these conditions have often developed before stronger medium- to long-term price expansions, making the coming weeks particularly important for confirming whether Bitcoin is entering another supply-driven accumulation phase.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Falls Below +2σ: Valuation Premium Is Cooling, Not Collapsing
$BTC MVRV Z-Score has now dropped below the +2 standard deviation threshold after spending much of the previous cycle in elevated territory. From an on-chain valuation perspective, this marks a meaningful transition. Historically, readings above +2σ indicate aggressive unrealized profit expansion across the network, while a move back below that level reflects a normalization of valuation rather than an immediate bear market signal.
The current decline is notable because it has occurred alongside sustained price weakness. Unrealized gains are gradually being compressed as long-term holders absorb volatility and speculative positioning is reduced. Importantly, the Z-Score remains comfortably above its long-term average and far from historical undervaluation zones, suggesting that Bitcoin has exited the overheated phase without entering capitulation territory. This resembles a reset in investor expectations more than a structural deterioration in network health.
From a macro perspective, the market appears to be shifting from momentum-driven expansion toward a phase where liquidity conditions and capital inflows become increasingly important. Future upside will likely require renewed demand capable of lifting realized capitalization rather than relying solely on unrealized profit accumulation. If capital continues entering the network while valuation remains moderate, the current environment could establish a healthier foundation for the next impulse higher.
The MVRV Z-Score is signaling that Bitcoin's valuation premium is fading, but on-chain data does not yet support a classic cycle-top or deep bear-market conclusion. The market is transitioning from excess optimism toward equilibrium, making capital flow and realized demand the primary metrics to monitor in the coming weeks.
I'm prepared to hold this trade to new highs or until invalidation. If invalidated, I'll simply look to re-enter another swing long.
Now is not the time to lower targets, it's time to act. In my view, roughly 80% of the bear market is behind us. Expect plenty of chop designed to make participants fear longing the market.
The goal isn't to catch the exact bottom. It's to capture the major trend over the next couple of years, which I believe is more likely to be higher.
After spending a long time in the $0.064 to $0.067 range, it came down to the $0.054 level I was expecting and gave a small scalp opportunity. $IN As long as it holds above $0.054, it may look to sweep the liquidity above.
$0.059, $0.067 and $0.076 look reasonable. There are also clusters at higher levels.
Clifton Collins is an Irish beekeeper turned drug dealer, who made over $400M on Bitcoin - and then “lost” it all. Irish Police recovered $30M of his BTC and sent it to Coinbase back in March.
Now, another $30M just moved. Was this seized as well - or is this Clifton himself?
Just a quick one because despite some explanation there are still some (new) people confused as to why I still hold on to the 60k level as my "bottom call level".
The answer is quite simply the difference between actual trading and engagement farming. Where the engagement farmer tries to talk about the bottom with repeated posts of vague and broad levels and numbers, with the sheer goal of trying to be right ("we will rally", "we will go higher from here", "the low is forming", "I closed my shorts" etc etc). Just to be able to tell you "I told you so", without any actual positions mentioned or taken.
So let's not identify ourselves with that. Let's not try to aim to "call the 60k bottom perfectly" and then morph posts in ways that may look good after the fact, just trying to be right and nothing else, whilst deleting old wrong tweets and what not.
Let's just treat this bottom call like any other call, a proper live call with realistic (but bold) expectations. The same way a proper trade works, which I framed so on the chart below.
60k is my estimate, 50k is where I no longer believe my bottom call is correct, and new ath's is where I make money.
That's 6.5+ in "loss-to-gain" ratio, a large amount. It is indeed a bold and aggressive call, made since Feb.
This is of course not a trade I took in the literal sense, this is a virtual trade. No one taking these markets seriously takes a long trade like this, you would lose a third of the gains in funding. It merely represents my spot plan, and weekly bottom bias (different to weekly bias, weekly bias can incorporate countertrend rallies along the way).
The goal is not to call the bottom in an aggressively down trending market to "scalp" a 100x long on that. Again you lose most profits in funding so there is no real added value in that.
So although it looks pretty, there is no need to nail a bottom perfectly to make money consistently. In reality, it only helps to create engagement and morph expectations.
$BTC Price just broke above the weekly value area and is trying to find acceptance there.
In most cases, price rotates back into fair value, but not always.
This time, we also saw a POC shift to the upside, which is a bullish sign.
It shows that the price level where the most volume is traded has moved higher, meaning higher prices are currently attracting more interest from market participants.
The rest of the week could get interesting, probably more chop though.