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A reserve currency is not a throne. It’s a network.
And that network has three layers:
Safe assetsPricing & paymentsDebt financing
Most “USD is dying” arguments look at only one layer usually reserve share and stop there. That’s a lazy shortcut.
When you zoom out across all three layers, the conclusion is clear:
👉 The U.S. dollar is still the backbone of global finance.
Monetary power vs. economic size
A practical way to measure currency dominance is to compare its international role with its share of global GDP and trade.
By that measure, USD power is outsized.
FX reserves (COFER): ~56–58%Global payments (SWIFT): ~47% in 2024FX trading (BIS Apr 2025): USD on 89.2% of all trades
This is far larger than the U.S. share of global output or trade a classic signal that financial market depth and safe-asset supply, not trade flows, drive reserve status.
The story isn’t “the world is dumping USD.” The real story is that USD dominance is shifting form, not disappearing.

Reserves are diversifying not escaping the dollar system
Yes, USD’s reserve share has drifted down slightly:
Q4 2024: 57.8%Q2 2025: 56.3%
But after FX-adjustment, the actual decline in Q2 2025 was only ~0.12 bps statistically trivial.
More importantly, what replaced USD?
Not the euro. Not the yen.
Flows went into:
RMB (modest)AUD, CAD, Nordics, some EM FX
This is portfolio optimization, not dollar rejection. And for central banks, “holding USD” doesn’t mean cash it means U.S. Treasuries.
Foreign investors still hold ~$8.2T in U.S. Treasuries (~33% outstanding).
What changed since 2023 is who holds them:
Private foreign investors now exceed official buyers
That’s a channel shift, not a confidence collapse. There is still no substitute for the U.S. Treasury market as global collateral.

Payments & trade: USD remains the default language
If reserves are the warehouse, payments are the pipelines. And USD still runs the pipes.
Share of exports invoiced in USD (2025):
Americas: 96.3%Asia-Pacific: 74%Rest of world: 79.4%
USD remains the vehicle currency of global trade.
Even as U.S. trade share declines, USD’s payment share rises:
2010: 31.8%2023: 44.0%2024: 47.0%
This perfectly fits the Dominant Currency Paradigm:
A currency doesn’t need trade dominance to rule it needs pricing power and liquidity.
Markets gravitate toward the deepest, most standardized unit. That’s still USD.
The currency of debt: the real lock-in
This is the layer most people ignore. By Q3 2025:
~$14T in USD credit to non-U.S. borrowers55–66% of all international debt issuance in USDOff-balance-sheet USD debt via FX swaps:~$26T (non-banks)~$39T (banks)
This debt is short-term and rollover-sensitive. That’s why during:
2008March 2020
Global USD shortages forced the Fed to open swap lines. No other central bank can do this at scale. This is why global liquidity is still single-polar, even as reserves become multi-polar.

De-dollarization is real but limited
Yes, BRICS talk about alternatives. But the data is unromantic:
RMB reserves: ~2%RMB trade invoicing: <2%Oil trade: still overwhelmingly USD
Meanwhile:
>99% of stablecoins are USD-peggedStablecoin growth increases demand for T-bills, not alternatives
Ironically, crypto rails may extend USD’s reach, not weaken it. Gold is the only clear reserve hedge:
Central banks bought >1,000 tons annually (2022–2024)Still, gold complements USD it doesn’t replace its liquidity role
We are not entering a post-dollar world. We are entering a system of:
Multi-polar reservesSingle-polar liquidity
USD may quietly lose share in storage, but in payments, FX, debt, and crisis liquidity, it remains unmatched.
DXY weakness and gold’s rally reflect policy cycles and confidence waves, not the collapse of dollar dominance.
The real question isn’t whether the dollar survives but how long the world can function without an alternative liquidity engine.
So far, there isn’t one.
#usd #USGovernment #MarketAnalysis $BTC $XAU

Prices have stayed between seventy five thousand and eighty thousand in the last day. This follows a drop from eighty five thousand to under seventy five thousand. Traders and investors are watching closely to see if bitcoin can recover above eighty thousand.
One factor making recovery harder is the U.S. dollar. The dollar index has moved up fast in the last two days. It is now at its highest in nine months. A strong dollar makes it more expensive to hold assets like bitcoin or gold. When the dollar rises people are less willing to take risks in markets. This can hold back prices for bitcoin and other crypto.
The dollar is also reacting to news about the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh is nominated to lead the Fed. Some people expect he will be careful about cutting interest rates. His past work as a Fed governor showed that he tends to be cautious. This could support the dollar in the coming weeks. When interest rates stay higher people often prefer cash over risk assets like bitcoin.
Another factor is upcoming U.S. jobs data. The nonfarm payroll report was expected on February six but it was delayed because of a partial government shutdown. This report will show how many jobs were added and what the unemployment rate is. Strong jobs numbers could make the dollar stronger and put more pressure on bitcoin. Analysts expect around eighty thousand jobs to be added with unemployment staying near four point four percent. This may help stabilize the dollar and slow any quick recovery for crypto.
Some traders hope that futures market movements could push bitcoin higher in the short term. However, the overall picture looks cautious. A stronger dollar and potential interest rate stability mean that gains for bitcoin could be limited. Investors may watch for clear signals before making big moves.
For now bitcoin is holding above seventy five thousand but below eighty thousand. This is an important zone because it shows where buyers and sellers are active. If the price moves below this zone it could lead to more selling. If it rises above eighty thousand it could attract more buyers.
The market is also watching how global money flows react. A stronger dollar can slow the movement of money into risk markets around the world. This can affect not just bitcoin but also other digital assets and commodities.
In summary bitcoin has paused after a weekend drop. The U.S. dollar has gained strength. Interest rate expectations and upcoming jobs data will influence the next moves. Investors should be careful and watch the price and market signals closely. The coming days could decide if bitcoin can regain strength or face more pressure.
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