Crypto prices are really sensitive to the ISM. So the ISM moving back above 50 has historically been associated with actually super cycle moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum. >> Breaking news, the ISM comes in at 52.7, beating expectations. This is the fastest expansion since 2022 and the third straight month in a row of expansion. >> Wait, ISM going into expansion territory is positive for Bitcoin and correct. So this is the live chart right here, the United States ISM manufacturing PMI. And as you can see, we spent the last 3 years, I think a little over 3 years suppressed with the ISM manufacturing in contraction. Something flipped these last 3 months. And I love this chart. I love this chart. All major crypto bull markets have aligned with the PMI turning up. So we see when the business cycle back in 2013 turned up bull market. back in 2017 when the ISMP PMI turned up. bull market back in 2021 bull market and despite the last 3 years being under 50 again US manufacturing in contraction >> and I think if you look at like ISM for instance uh actually no Bitcoin cycle has peaked without the ISM peaking but part of it is because the ISM's been below 50 for a record 36 months now it's the longest in 70 I'm sorry in a in a 100red years of data for ISM, it's never been um below 50 for this long. >> And of course, while past performance does not guarantee future performance, Bitcoin hit over $100,000 per coin last year in a bare market, a macro manufacturing bare market, meaning liquidity was suppressed. One of the big reasons I think we didn't see an altcoin season, liquidity has literally been suppressed for the last 3 years. we see what happens when liquidity is able to turn up and watch today's whole video. Of course, we'll take a look at the inverse as well, the technical analysis, the second bare flag we may be seeing to form the bottom, but just to clue everybody in. So, I'm sure everybody is on the same page. How do we define the ISM manufacturing PNI? What data goes into this? The manufacturing ISM report on business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. So what goes into these numbers? What do they measure to understand that manufacturing is expanding? Well, for each of the indicators measured, which are new orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, imports, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, customer inventories, employment, and prices, all the factors you would think that make up a healthy business, healthy manufacturing. The report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. All in all, what this means to you, a PMI reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding. Bitcoin was able to hit $100,000 per coin despite being in manufacturing contraction. Maybe macroanalyst Raul Pal wasn't wrong. Maybe he was just early. This clip is worth revisiting from last year. >> Why is Bitcoin sort of not wildly off to the races yet and it's this chart. Bitcoin is basically this is a dtrended Bitcoin and it's basically the ISM which is the business cycle. Remember, we've always said it's the business cycle stupid. It is always the business cycle stupid. And all of these people who claim it's the four-year cycle based around this and that, they don't understand the fundamental of what the business cycle is, why there's a four-year cycle in everything. And we've explained it, we'll go through it great detail tomorrow um in our everything code presentation, but basically it's following the ISM and rates have been following the same pattern. You see, rates should have come lower. They need to come lower because we need to roll the debt. We've talked about this. That's part of the everything code, fundamental part. And ISM, because rates are so high, has meant that Main Street has been screwed while Wall Street's made money from debasement. Earnings versus scarce assets. This is the issue that they need to solve and they need to get rates lower. They get rates lower. Why? Why do we have an elongated business cycle that looks like virtually no other real other time? It's because, and I only just found this out doing redoing the work on the everything code recently, is that in 202122 that actually extended the maturity of the debt from four years to 5 years. So that extension of the maturity of debt has pushed out the business cycle a year. The fouryear cycle this time around is a fiveyear cycle. We don't know what the next one will be until we see where they all get end up getting refinanced. Whether it comes back to four because they managed to get some stuff at the long end or whether they shorten it because everything's in the short end. We don't know yet. But this one is a 5year cycle. And this is what it looks like. 5.4 year sign curve. 5.4 year is the exact average weighted maturity of the debt. And it tells us the ISM should peak by 2026. We think liquidity probably peaks before that. Um, as the rate of change of ISM changes and the rate of change of liquidity changes, our best guess remains well into 2026, probably Q2. >> Now, of course, you would say, Austin, this has to be temporary. This doesn't account for the Iran war going on, all this macro uncertainty. And I would say during war times, they inflate the currency more. it becomes inflationary. We need more manufacturing during wartimes. You could also say that crypto really won't be able to flourish without regulation, without the Clarity Act, and that seems to be stalling indefinitely. I mean, the latest update, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says Coinbase is really the only group of people holding up the passage of the Clarity Act. They just want their yield. And the the irony guys is the only group of people holding up the passage to clarity act now is Coinbase because not because of any of these principles. They just want to be able to pay a yield on their stable coin and they're like we are fighting for the retail consumer for yield on our stable coin. Okay. So are are you supporting Dexus? Okay. Are you supporting like you know things not being a security stable coin yield? That's all they're fighting for. That's that's the whole thing that's setting this whole thing up. It's like this one wedge issue there. Not any of this like how do we regulate the industry private? Why? Because the whole process was >> yet in the latest update. Coinbase's CLLO chief legal officer says we will see an update within 48 hours. >> Senator Tim Scott who of course introduced the Clarity Act. I think believed and many did that we were going to have a resolution of this in the fall of 2025. It has gone on much longer this argument than many believed. But talk about that 48 hour time frame. Do you really believe that we're going to have resolution in 48 hours after all of this? >> I'm very confident we're going to see progress and the reason for that is we need to finish the job. It's true. The Genius Act passed last year was a watershed moment for crypto and for the crypto economy. For the first time, we had sensible rules in place that govern this important part of crypto. However, it's important that we provide a full market structure into which the crypto legislation um uh from last year can fit. And that's what clarity fundamentally provides. Um I do think that it's important that we finish the job in particular on deciding which tokens, which crypto projects really should fall to the jurisdiction of the SEC on the one hand and which really are better served by oversight over at the CFTC. I think Chairman Scott deserves a lot of credit. I will make a video as soon as we get an update on this. Make sure you stay subscribed. By the way, friendly reminder that ticket prices are about to increase for Bitcoin Conference 2026. I will be speaking, my brother will be speaking. Can come come hang out with us, see us at least speak on stage and hopefully grab a beer, go to an afterparty, but prices are about to increase. So use code altcoin daily for 10% off your ticket and hotel link below. And that brings us all to this where we are today with Bitcoin for technical analysis. We are see we see our second bare flag forming, right? We saw this a few months ago. Bitcoin corrected. We finally had a bounce. This is a bare flag which is bearish. And then we of course broke down from it and a second bare flag is forming again. This is not new in crypto. We've seen this many times before. We saw this back at the end of 2022. Correction bounce to bare flag one led to a correction led to bare flag two. Then of course the inevitable inevitable breakdown with the bottom formation. Just because the ISM is turning up doesn't mean we won't get another 20 25% correction. I don't know. I have no clue what the Bitcoin price will do tomorrow. Neither do you. But just be aware of this. Just be prepared for this. $BTC
