Abdullah_Mian

Her words I think it's may change your mind about trading
Her golden words:
You know what separates traders who survive from traders who blow up? It's not intelligence, it's not money, and it's not a secret strategy. After 38 years trading through the dotcom crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and multiple flash crashes, I've learned lessons most traders never survive long enough to learn. And today, I'm sharing three brutal truths I wish someone told me when I first started.
lessons learned through real losses in real markets. Some of these may challenge what you already believe about trading, but if you understand them, you can avoid years of frustration and thousands of dollars in losses. And the first lesson might make you want to delete half your indicators. A trader, and I'll call him Marcus, came to me back in 2019.
His charts look like Christmas tree lights. Dozens of indicators, three monitors, thousands of dollars spent on courses. His win rate 31%. He was losing money consistently. So I told him to remove everything from his charts. 3 months later, he was trading one simple range setup. His win rate jumped to 68%. Same trader, simpler process. But here's the truth. You don't need dozens of indicators.
You need an edge. one setup you understand completely and can repeat over and over and over again. Complexity kills traders and trading accounts because complexity creates more decisions, more variables, more opportunities to make mistakes. Professional trading is actually pretty simple. Mark levels, wait for the setup, execute. That's it. After coaching thousands of traders, I've seen the same pattern. Winning traders master simplicity. Losing traders chase complicated systems, shiny new indicators, secret strategies. And if you're trying to build a simple, profitable strategy, I've created a blueprint called the simple edge framework, and you can find it listed in the description below.
Trade one asset. Early in my career, I traded everything. Stocks, forex, futures, options, and I thought that diversification, looking at lots of things, was smart. Then I lost $18,000 in just a week. And that's where my mentor told me something that changed everything. Pick two markets, learn how they move. So, I chose crude oil and the S&P. And I only traded those markets for three months. Why two? because you'll force trades when you're looking at just one. My win rate went from about 43 45% to over 62 to about 68% in that first 12 months. But why? Because markets have personalities.
I can't get to know 10 people quickly, but I can get to know two. Too many markets are tough to follow. They move differently during different sessions. They react differently to different news. If you trade too many markets, you can never learn those kinds of details. You're a tourist everywhere, but an expert nowhere. Professional or experienced traders often specialize in a single instrument or two. They know how it behaves at the open, at the close, what it does midday. They know how it reacts to economic news. They know where the liquidity typically appears and at what time. They focus on what gives them an edge and that focus is the edge. When you stop jumping between markets, your consistency improves.
When you stop jumping between indicators and strategies, your consistency improves. If you're finding this video helpful, subscribe to the channel. It helps me know whether the content we're creating is right for you and hitting the mark. Thanks a bunch. One trader I coached had read every book, taken every course, and built what looked like the beautiful strategy, but she couldn't become profitable. So, I asked her just one question. How much time do you spend watching the market? And she said about 30 minutes, an hour a day. And that was the problem. You cannot learn trading, and I'm talking in the early part of your career, from theory alone.
You need real screen time, right? 10,000 hours is kind of true. You need some time behind the screens. Real observation, real market behavior, real study. I told her to spend four hours. Now remember, she was learning. So I said spend 4 hours. The first two hours and the last two hours of the trading day, Monday through Friday, watching the market for just one month, not trading, just observing and taking notes, taking screenshots. On day 23, she called me and said, "Oh, wait a minute. I can finally see this. I get it. I can see the traps. I can see the patterns, Raie. And that's pattern recognition that you only get from time spent watching, observing something.
It only comes from repetition. Books can teach concepts, but experience teaches observation. And that observation ultimately turns into a process. The more time you spend watching markets, the faster your brain recognizes the patterns. You're training your eyes. You're training your mind. Eventually, the market slows down. Think of any athlete you listen to after a pretty good game. What do they say? Oh, the game slowed down. The play slowed down. Everything was in slow motion. And in that, what you're able to do is you can start to anticipate behavior. Anticipate those patterns instead of always simply being surprised by it. You can see the development because remember, if you don't see the trade setup coming, it's a gamble. It's a bet.
That's the difference between beginners and experienced traders. And after 38 years, the biggest lessons are shockingly, surprisingly simple. Keep your strategy simple. Focus on one or two markets. Spend time watching price behavior. Give yourself the time to get good at it. Give yourself the time to train your eyes. These principles don't sound exciting at all, do they? But they work. And trading success rarely comes from excitement. It comes from discipline and it comes from repetition. But here's the problem. Understanding these ideas are really only the beginning. The real challenge is building a repeatable processdriven trading plan that allows you to execute them consistently, confidently. $CTSI
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Stock investors are throwing a party as we end the week. Markets have come back from the dead and snapped a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow gained 3.0%. People are not going to complain about green candles after weeks of red.
On the surface, it looks like risk appetite is back and Q2 is off to a strong start. But underneath the rally, the latest labor market data tells a more cautious story. That gap between what markets are doing and what the data is saying is where investors need to focus in my opinion.
The March jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000. This rebound from February’s decline of 133,000 has people excited for obvious reasons and it doesn’t hurt that the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.3% either. At first glance, this looks fine. But zoom out and the trend is clear. Hiring is slowing. The gains are concentrated in a handful of sectors like healthcare, construction, and logistics, while broader momentum remains weak.
For example, the ADP report earlier in the week showed just 62,000 private-sector jobs added, reinforcing the idea that businesses are becoming more cautious.
What we are seeing now is a classic late-cycle labor market. Companies are not aggressively hiring, but they are not rushing to fire workers either. Job openings are trending lower and workers are quitting less often. The labor market is essentially in a standoff where employees stay put and companies resist hiring.
This “low hire, low fire” environment signals a slowdown in demand, but thankfull yit is not a collapse. Investors have to pay attention to the subtle shift because the labor market sits at the center of the economy. It drives consumer spending, corporate earnings, and ultimately the Fed’s monetary policy.
At the same time, this slowdown is happening at the same time as rising geopolitical risk. The bombing of Iran has pushed energy prices higher, which increases the odds of short-term inflation. So now the Fed has a problem on their hands.
Structural deflation is swallowing the economy. Short term inflationary pressures are showing up. The stock market is volatile. And the central bank has to figure out what to do. They can’t cut rates if inflation is going to spike, but they can’t let the labor market fall off a cliff either. This tension between slower growth and sticky inflation is one of the most important dynamics I am watching right now.
So this brings us back to stocks and why they are rallying in the face of this mixed data? The answer is simple….markets are forward-looking.
Investors are betting that the current softness will eventually lead to policy support. If the labor market weakens further, the Fed will be forced to ease. If geopolitical tensions stabilize, energy prices could come down and diminish inflationary pressures. On top of that, there is still a belief that corporate earnings, particularly in technology, can remain resilient.
Basically investors are calling the bluff of the doomsday predictors. They are voting with their dollars and clearly saying they believe things are going to turn around through the rest of the year.
This is what a “climb the wall of worry” market looks like. Stocks move higher even as the data becomes more fragile. You have to remember, we are not in a recession. But we are also not in a clean growth environment. We are in the messy middle, which is where narratives shift quickly and investors who can ignore the noise tend to do well over the long run.
This is where discipline becomes critical. Companies with strong balance sheets, durable demand, and real pricing power tend to outperform in this type of environment. These businesses can absorb higher costs and navigate slower growth better than their peers. At the same time, interest rates will remain a key variable.
If labor market weakness continues, rate cuts come back into focus, which tends to benefit long-duration assets like growth stocks. But if energy-driven inflation persists, the Fed may stay tighter for longer, which changes the situation materially.
I don’t want to ignore the energy situation, but it is important to put in context too. Higher oil prices are not just a macro headline. They directly impact inflation expectations, consumer behavior, and corporate margins. In many ways, energy exposure becomes both a risk and a hedge depending on how geopolitical events unfold. This adds another layer of complexity to portfolio construction.
So the one thing I feel very confident in is that volatility will remain elevated. This is not a smooth, trending market. Sharp pullbacks driven by fear can offer attractive entry points, while strong rallies can be used to take profits and manage risk. The key is to avoid reacting emotionally and instead focus on the underlying fundamentals of stocks, gold, bitcoin, and other assets.
The bottom line is that the labor market is screaming a specific message to whoever will listen. It is not strong, but it is not breaking either. The market, for now, is choosing to be optimistic, which I think is a no brainer decision.
But that optimism depends on hiring stabilizing, inflation staying under control, and geopolitical tensions easing in the coming weeks. If any of those variables shift in the wrong direction, then the current rally could quickly lose momentum.
You have to be a critical thinker going forward. The easy gains from broad exposure are behind us. The edge now comes from understanding second-order effects. Slower hiring today can mean easier policy tomorrow. Higher energy prices can delay that easing. No one has a crystal ball. But if you think hard enough, you can start to connect the dots.
Lots of people are nervous or confused right now. I am excited and see tons of opportunity all over the market. And my bet is that pessimists sound smart, but they rarely make money.
Let’s see what happens. Have a great end to your week.
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The impact of the Iran war is now beginning to show across the Gulf countries. The first visible impact is emerging in Dubai's luxury economy.
Supply disruptions across key shipping routes have hit high-end imports with luxury car deliveries now facing delays. Bernstein estimates that luxury sales in the region will be halved in March this year due to a sharp drop in foreign tourists.
Now remember this is significant for a market where premium consumption is a key growth driver. Before the 2026 crisis, the Gulf was the fastest growing luxury market in the world growing 6 to 8% in 2025 as per Bernstein.
The slowdown directly impacts the Gulf's core diversification strategy, tourism. In the UAE alone, tourism contributes roughly 15% to GDP and generates over 80 billion dollars annually. It is deeply integrated with aviation, real estate, retail, and the broader services economy.
Travel demand is weakening due to security concerns and airspace disruptions. Booking cancellations have surged and regional tourism losses are estimated to run into hundreds of millions of dollars per day. There are also external spillovers for countries like India. Any slowdown in the Gulf economies could translate into weaker remittances, which is remember a key source of foreign income.
At a broader level meanwhile, the risks are becoming clearer. First, a confidence shock as geopolitical tensions challenge the region's perception of stability. Second, pressure on non-oil sectors that have driven recent growth and third, an uneven impact with oil exporting economies benefiting from higher crude prices while service-driven hubs like the UAE face demand-side stress.$CTSI
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A single piece of software just wiped billions of off the market cap of the world's biggest chip makers. Last week we told you Turboquant was coming and now it is officially here. The stock market is already feeling the burn. SK Hinix, Samsung and Micron are all seeing red today.
The reason for this chaos is a new algorithm from Google that changes the very math of AI infrastructure forever. But here is the real story you need to understand. Most people think AI speed is all about the processor.
But the real stumbling block has always been memory. Every time we talk to a chatbot, the system has to store the entire context of our conversation in something called a key value cache. As our conversations get longer, that cache explodes in size. That is where the cost thrives and that is exactly where Google just launched a fullscale attack.
Turboquand is not about training the next massive model like Gemini or for that matter open AI's GPD5. It targets inference which is the moment the AI actually talks back to us. And this changes things because inference is where 90% of AI costs actually happen.
Turbocquant uses a specialized compression technique to shrink that memory cache by up to six times. That is about a six time reduction in memory usage without losing accuracy. Quite remarkable. Basically, we can now of course run six times the workload on the exact same hardware we already own.
The market saw this and panicked because if AI needs less memory, then of course we need fewer memory chips. Correct? Not really. On the other hand, actually it is the opposite. History has demonstrated that when a resource is cheaper and more efficient, people tend to use more of it.
This is what is referred to as a classic efficiency paradox. So by lowering the cost per query, Google is opening the floodgates for massive agent workflows and giant code repositories. If an enterprise is running AI at scale, the build for said enterprise just got significantly smaller. And this is important because Turboon is pure software. There is no retraining required and no expansive hardware upgrade needed.
It works by compressing the relationships between words in real time as the model thinks. While competitors like Deep Seek are building models from scratch to be efficient, Google is making existing infrastructure smarter. And you know what? This is very interesting because the real winner here isn't just Google.
It is actually any company building long context AI agents. And here, of course, if you're all set for it, is the front page take. It will be fascinating actually to see how this affects our favorite AI tools in the next few months. We are moving from a world of hardware scarcity to a world of software efficiency. The memory giants might be down today, but the AI era just got a massive performance boost.

Please do let me know in the comments if you think software will eventually make hardware bottlenecks a thing of the past.
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MARA Holdings, the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner, sold 15,133 BTC in just three weeks.
That’s roughly $1.1 billion worth, liquidated between March 4 and March 25.
The proceeds went straight into buying back $1 billion of its own convertible debt at a discount.
It’s the most aggressive balance sheet move the company has ever made, and I think it says a lot more about the direction of Bitcoin mining than anything to do with MARA’s treasury management[1].
Worth noting, MARA isn’t alone.
Core Scientific has sold down its Bitcoin treasury from 2,537 BTC to around 630, pivoting hard into AI cloud services.
CleanSpark sold 97% of its February Bitcoin production to fund its own AI transition.
Riot Platforms posted a $663 million net loss in 2025 and is now under pressure from activist investors to accelerate a 1.6 billion AI data centre build.
Bitfarms has rebranded its infrastructure arm as ‘Keel Infrastructure’ and laid out a full transition to AI and high-performance computing by 2027[2].
And as we’ve seen already, BitDigital divested its AI division into WhiteFiber in order to take advantage of two things at once.
The biggest names in Bitcoin mining are walking away from Bitcoin mining. And I think that’s great for you and me!
The Maths Stopped Working
The average public miner spent roughly $88,000 to produce one Bitcoin in March[3].
Bitcoin is trading around $67,000. You don’t need a finance degree to see the problem.
The April 2024 halving is the culprit. It cut the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, effectively doubling the cost of producing each coin.
During the 2021 bull run, mining margins hit 90%. Now, for large-scale listed miners carrying debt, executive salaries, shareholder obligations, and massive power bills, those margins have evaporated.$CTSI
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Crypto prices are really sensitive to the ISM. So the ISM moving back above 50 has historically been associated with actually super cycle moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum. >> Breaking news, the ISM comes in at 52.7, beating expectations. This is the fastest expansion since 2022 and the third straight month in a row of expansion. >> Wait, ISM going into expansion territory is positive for Bitcoin and correct. So this is the live chart right here, the United States ISM manufacturing PMI. And as you can see, we spent the last 3 years, I think a little over 3 years suppressed with the ISM manufacturing in contraction. Something flipped these last 3 months. And I love this chart. I love this chart. All major crypto bull markets have aligned with the PMI turning up. So we see when the business cycle back in 2013 turned up bull market. back in 2017 when the ISMP PMI turned up. bull market back in 2021 bull market and despite the last 3 years being under 50 again US manufacturing in contraction >> and I think if you look at like ISM for instance uh actually no Bitcoin cycle has peaked without the ISM peaking but part of it is because the ISM's been below 50 for a record 36 months now it's the longest in 70 I'm sorry in a in a 100red years of data for ISM, it's never been um below 50 for this long. >> And of course, while past performance does not guarantee future performance, Bitcoin hit over $100,000 per coin last year in a bare market, a macro manufacturing bare market, meaning liquidity was suppressed. One of the big reasons I think we didn't see an altcoin season, liquidity has literally been suppressed for the last 3 years. we see what happens when liquidity is able to turn up and watch today's whole video. Of course, we'll take a look at the inverse as well, the technical analysis, the second bare flag we may be seeing to form the bottom, but just to clue everybody in. So, I'm sure everybody is on the same page. How do we define the ISM manufacturing PNI? What data goes into this? The manufacturing ISM report on business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. So what goes into these numbers? What do they measure to understand that manufacturing is expanding? Well, for each of the indicators measured, which are new orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, imports, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, customer inventories, employment, and prices, all the factors you would think that make up a healthy business, healthy manufacturing. The report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. All in all, what this means to you, a PMI reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding. Bitcoin was able to hit $100,000 per coin despite being in manufacturing contraction. Maybe macroanalyst Raul Pal wasn't wrong. Maybe he was just early. This clip is worth revisiting from last year. >> Why is Bitcoin sort of not wildly off to the races yet and it's this chart. Bitcoin is basically this is a dtrended Bitcoin and it's basically the ISM which is the business cycle. Remember, we've always said it's the business cycle stupid. It is always the business cycle stupid. And all of these people who claim it's the four-year cycle based around this and that, they don't understand the fundamental of what the business cycle is, why there's a four-year cycle in everything. And we've explained it, we'll go through it great detail tomorrow um in our everything code presentation, but basically it's following the ISM and rates have been following the same pattern. You see, rates should have come lower. They need to come lower because we need to roll the debt. We've talked about this. That's part of the everything code, fundamental part. And ISM, because rates are so high, has meant that Main Street has been screwed while Wall Street's made money from debasement. Earnings versus scarce assets. This is the issue that they need to solve and they need to get rates lower. They get rates lower. Why? Why do we have an elongated business cycle that looks like virtually no other real other time? It's because, and I only just found this out doing redoing the work on the everything code recently, is that in 202122 that actually extended the maturity of the debt from four years to 5 years. So that extension of the maturity of debt has pushed out the business cycle a year. The fouryear cycle this time around is a fiveyear cycle. We don't know what the next one will be until we see where they all get end up getting refinanced. Whether it comes back to four because they managed to get some stuff at the long end or whether they shorten it because everything's in the short end. We don't know yet. But this one is a 5year cycle. And this is what it looks like. 5.4 year sign curve. 5.4 year is the exact average weighted maturity of the debt. And it tells us the ISM should peak by 2026. We think liquidity probably peaks before that. Um, as the rate of change of ISM changes and the rate of change of liquidity changes, our best guess remains well into 2026, probably Q2. >> Now, of course, you would say, Austin, this has to be temporary. This doesn't account for the Iran war going on, all this macro uncertainty. And I would say during war times, they inflate the currency more. it becomes inflationary. We need more manufacturing during wartimes. You could also say that crypto really won't be able to flourish without regulation, without the Clarity Act, and that seems to be stalling indefinitely. I mean, the latest update, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says Coinbase is really the only group of people holding up the passage of the Clarity Act. They just want their yield. And the the irony guys is the only group of people holding up the passage to clarity act now is Coinbase because not because of any of these principles. They just want to be able to pay a yield on their stable coin and they're like we are fighting for the retail consumer for yield on our stable coin. Okay. So are are you supporting Dexus? Okay. Are you supporting like you know things not being a security stable coin yield? That's all they're fighting for. That's that's the whole thing that's setting this whole thing up. It's like this one wedge issue there. Not any of this like how do we regulate the industry private? Why? Because the whole process was >> yet in the latest update. Coinbase's CLLO chief legal officer says we will see an update within 48 hours. >> Senator Tim Scott who of course introduced the Clarity Act. I think believed and many did that we were going to have a resolution of this in the fall of 2025. It has gone on much longer this argument than many believed. But talk about that 48 hour time frame. Do you really believe that we're going to have resolution in 48 hours after all of this? >> I'm very confident we're going to see progress and the reason for that is we need to finish the job. It's true. The Genius Act passed last year was a watershed moment for crypto and for the crypto economy. For the first time, we had sensible rules in place that govern this important part of crypto. However, it's important that we provide a full market structure into which the crypto legislation um uh from last year can fit. And that's what clarity fundamentally provides. Um I do think that it's important that we finish the job in particular on deciding which tokens, which crypto projects really should fall to the jurisdiction of the SEC on the one hand and which really are better served by oversight over at the CFTC. I think Chairman Scott deserves a lot of credit. I will make a video as soon as we get an update on this. Make sure you stay subscribed. By the way, friendly reminder that ticket prices are about to increase for Bitcoin Conference 2026. I will be speaking, my brother will be speaking. Can come come hang out with us, see us at least speak on stage and hopefully grab a beer, go to an afterparty, but prices are about to increase. So use code altcoin daily for 10% off your ticket and hotel link below. And that brings us all to this where we are today with Bitcoin for technical analysis. We are see we see our second bare flag forming, right? We saw this a few months ago. Bitcoin corrected. We finally had a bounce. This is a bare flag which is bearish. And then we of course broke down from it and a second bare flag is forming again. This is not new in crypto. We've seen this many times before. We saw this back at the end of 2022. Correction bounce to bare flag one led to a correction led to bare flag two. Then of course the inevitable inevitable breakdown with the bottom formation. Just because the ISM is turning up doesn't mean we won't get another 20 25% correction. I don't know. I have no clue what the Bitcoin price will do tomorrow. Neither do you. But just be aware of this. Just be prepared for this. $BTC
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