A NEW ERA AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BEGINS

All eyes are on next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting – the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh .
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What to expect:

· Rate decision: Widely expected to HOLD steady (no change expected)
· Focus: Warsh's tone and forward guidance signals
· Fed funds futures: 55% chance of a rate hike by December

Why this matters:

1. INFLATION IS RISING – US annual inflation rose to 4.2% in April – the highest level since April 2023 .

2. THE FED IS IN A "NO-WIN SCENARIO" – Regardless of the next policy move Warsh oversees, both he and Wall Street face a difficult choice. A historic energy supply shock from the Iran conflict is driving price increases .

3. WARSH IS CONSIDERED MORE HAWKISH – The new chair was appointed at a difficult moment. Even if a peace deal is reached soon, the inflationary effects of the energy supply shock are expected to persist for several quarters .

What to watch next week:

· Wednesday: Fed rate decision + Warsh's first press conference
· Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
· Ongoing: US-Iran peace deal developments

👇 Do you think the Fed will hike rates in 2026? Type "YES" or "NO" in the comments.

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