The Federal Reserve's Beige Book – a collection of anecdotal reports from each of the 12 Fed districts – showed activity has picked up even as energy price pressures have become pervasive . $SIREN
Key findings:
· Growth: "Minor to moderate" across 10 of 12 Fed districts · Inflation: Middle East conflict pushing up energy costs across all sectors · Labor market: Strong employment data continues to support the economy
The challenge for Kevin Warsh: The new Fed Chair takes over at a difficult moment. Even if the Trump administration negotiates a peace deal with Iran soon, the inflationary effects of the energy supply shock are expected to persist for several quarters .
What's at stake: The removal of roughly 20% of the world's crude oil from global markets has significantly affected energy prices. Gas and diesel prices have surged, with inflationary spillover appearing in the broader economy .
The numbers:
· February inflation: 2.4% (moving toward Fed's 2% target) · April inflation: 3.8% (three-year high)
👇 Do you think the US economy is resilient enough to handle higher rates? Type "YES" or "NO" in the comments.
The S&P 500 has now recorded its 9th weekly gain of 2026, closing the week at 7,431.46 .
The numbers:
· S&P 500 weekly gain: Approximately 7% · Dow Jones weekly gain: Approximately 7% · Year-to-date returns: Strongest two-month stretch since post-COVID rebound
What's driving the rally:
1. IRAN PEACE HOPES – Markets are pricing in an end to the Middle East conflict.
2. SPACEX SUCCESSFUL IPO – The record-breaking debut boosted sentiment across growth stocks .
3. AI OPTIMISM REMAINS STRONG – Despite Broadcom's revenue miss earlier this week, AI enthusiasm continues to support tech valuations.
But warning signs are flashing:
· US equity funds saw their FIRST weekly outflow in three weeks · The technology index confirmed a correction earlier this week · Analysts believe some weakness could be due to traders trimming holdings ahead of SpaceX's debut
The bottom line: Markets remain resilient, but the Fed meeting next week could change the trajectory.
👇 Is YOUR portfolio at all-time highs? Share your YTD return in the comments.
Even as oil prices crash to $87 on peace hopes, analysts warn that the relief could be temporary . $BNB
What ING analysts are saying: "We believe the market reaches an inflection point in late July if we do not see oil flows resuming before then. This is when inventory levels and seasonally stronger demand push prices significantly higher towards $120-130 per barrel" .
Why oil remains vulnerable:
1. GLOBAL OIL STOCKS ARE CRITICALLY LOW – The US military has confirmed that commercial ships continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic remains extremely limited. Global and regional oil stocks are still low and could drift lower even with a deal .
2. SUMMER DEMAND IS COMING – Peak seasonal fuel demand could rapidly tighten markets.
3. THE STRAIT REMAINS DANGEROUS – On Thursday, Iran announced a complete closure of the strait, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through. The strait normally carries a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments .
Goldman Sachs' take: The bank lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80/barrel on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling and a security premium for disruptions .
Again Capital's warning: "This really can't go on much longer before there are shortages," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital .
👇 Are you worried about oil spiking again? Type "WORRIED" or "NOT WORRIED" in the comments.
Stablecoin liquidity remains under significant pressure, with 30-day net outflows at -$105 million – a dramatic reversal from early May when inflows were +$40 million to +$90 million . $SOL
The numbers:
· Stablecoin 30-day net flow: -$105 million · Early May flows: +$40M to +$90M (strong buying liquidity) · Early June outflows: -$150M to -$170M · Current outflows have narrowed to -$105M
Why this matters: Stablecoins are the "ammunition" for crypto markets. When stablecoins leave exchanges, it means:
· Less buying power available · Reduced liquidity for trading · Increased selling pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins
Bitcoin exchange inflows are surging:
· 30-day net exchange flow: +114,000 BTC · This marks a shift from accumulation phase (early May: -85,000 to -115,000 BTC) to distribution phase · The indicator briefly peaked at +167,000 BTC in early June
The bottom line: Conditions on both sides – supply (BTC flowing to exchanges) and demand (stablecoins leaving) – are worsening. This is a key factor behind Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May high .
👇 Do you think crypto liquidity will improve soon? Type "YES" or "NO" in the comments.
All eyes are on next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting – the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh . $XRP
What to expect:
· Rate decision: Widely expected to HOLD steady (no change expected) · Focus: Warsh's tone and forward guidance signals · Fed funds futures: 55% chance of a rate hike by December
Why this matters:
1. INFLATION IS RISING – US annual inflation rose to 4.2% in April – the highest level since April 2023 .
2. THE FED IS IN A "NO-WIN SCENARIO" – Regardless of the next policy move Warsh oversees, both he and Wall Street face a difficult choice. A historic energy supply shock from the Iran conflict is driving price increases .
3. WARSH IS CONSIDERED MORE HAWKISH – The new chair was appointed at a difficult moment. Even if a peace deal is reached soon, the inflationary effects of the energy supply shock are expected to persist for several quarters .
What to watch next week:
· Wednesday: Fed rate decision + Warsh's first press conference · Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index · Ongoing: US-Iran peace deal developments
👇 Do you think the Fed will hike rates in 2026? Type "YES" or "NO" in the comments.
OIL JUST HAD ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN MONTHS $TSLAB
Brent crude prices fell to their lowest levels since early March as traders grew more confident about an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran .
The numbers:
· Brent crude: $87.33/barrel (down 3.37% on Friday) · WTI crude: $84.88/barrel (down 3.23%) · Weekly decline: Brent down approximately 6.5%
What's driving oil lower:
1. TRUMP HALTS PLANNED STRIKES – The US President called off threatened air strikes against Iran, citing progress toward a peace accord .
2. MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING COULD BE SIGNED AS SOON AS SUNDAY – A Western source told Reuters that a deal to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed within days, with Geneva as the likeliest venue .
3. OPEC LOWERED 2026 OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST – The producer group cut its forecast to 970,000 barrels per day from 1.17 million bpd – its second straight downward revision .
But caution remains:
· Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a memorandum had NOT yet been signed and could still change · Global oil stocks are still low and could drift lower even with a deal, as it would take time to ensure uninterrupted oil flows · ING analysts warn: "We believe the market reaches an inflection point in late July if we do not see oil flows resuming" – prices could hit $120-130/barrel
👇 How much are YOU paying for gas today? Drop your price and location in the comments.
Brent crude prices fell to their lowest levels since early March as traders grew more confident about an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran . $ETH
The numbers:
· Brent crude: $87.33/barrel (down 3.37% on Friday) · WTI crude: $84.88/barrel (down 3.23%) · Weekly decline: Brent down approximately 6.5%
What's driving oil lower:
1. TRUMP HALTS PLANNED STRIKES – The US President called off threatened air strikes against Iran, citing progress toward a peace accord .
2. MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING COULD BE SIGNED AS SOON AS SUNDAY – A Western source told Reuters that a deal to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed within days, with Geneva as the likeliest venue .
3. OPEC LOWERED 2026 OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST – The producer group cut its forecast to 970,000 barrels per day from 1.17 million bpd – its second straight downward revision .
But caution remains:
· Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a memorandum had NOT yet been signed and could still change · Global oil stocks are still low and could drift lower even with a deal, as it would take time to ensure uninterrupted oil flows · ING analysts warn: "We believe the market reaches an inflection point in late July if we do not see oil flows resuming" – prices could hit $120-130/barrel
👇 How much are YOU paying for gas today? Drop your price and location in the comments.
Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 on Friday – falling nearly 50% from its all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025 – before rebounding to approximately $63,500 . $BTC
The numbers:
· Bitcoin low: Below $60,000 · Current price: ~$63,500 · Weekly gain: 4.7% (masks extreme volatility) · Bear market territory: BTC is now in valuation ranges typically associated with bear market bottoms
What triggered the crash?
1. STRATEGY (MICHAEL SAYLOR) SOLD BTC – The company disclosed it sold 32 BTC (about $2.5 million) to pay dividends on its STRC preferred shares. Given Saylor's long-standing assertion that he would "never sell Bitcoin," the market interpreted this as a shift in behavior .
2. EXCHANGE INFLOWS SURGED – Bitcoin's 30-day net exchange flow indicator turned positive at around +114,000 BTC, marking a shift from accumulation to distribution phase .
3. STABLECOIN LIQUIDITY DRYING UP – 30-day net stablecoin outflows remain negative at -$105 million, meaning market "ammunition" is diminishing .
What triggered the recovery:
· Trump stated the US had effectively ended its war with Iran · Brent crude fell toward $85/barrel · SpaceX's successful IPO boosted risk appetite across markets
👇 Are you buying Bitcoin at $63k or waiting for lower prices? Type "BUYING" or "WAITING" in the comments.
SPACEX MAKES HISTORIC MARKET DEBUT – WORLD'S 6TH LARGEST COMPANY $BTC
SPACEX SOARS 19% IN HISTORIC NASDAQ DEBUT – Elon Musk Becomes World's First Trillionaire as Valuation Hits $2.2 Trillion
THE BIGGEST IPO IN HISTORY IS OFFICIALLY A SUCCESS
SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq on Friday, and its first day on the stock market transformed the startup into one of the world's most valuable public companies .
The numbers:
· Closing price: $160.95 (up 19.2% from $135 IPO price) · Market capitalization: $2.2 TRILLION · Ranking: 6th largest public company in the world · IPO raise: $75 BILLION – largest in history
What this means:
· Elon Musk is now the world's FIRST TRILLIONAIRE · SpaceX's embrace of AI with the acquisition of xAI in February made the listing a "referendum on the current leadership of the market" · The successful IPO bodes well for upcoming listings from OpenAI and Anthropic later this year
SpaceX now ranks among the biggest US public companies – ahead of Tesla, which ended 1.8% higher on Friday .
But caution remains: SpaceX posted more than $4 BILLION in annual losses last year. "Sentiment could easily turn sour because SpaceX is truly overvalued at this level," said Jake Dollarhide of Longbow Asset Management .
Coin| Whale Structure (Buy/Sell)| Action Today| What I Told You Yesterday WLD| Bullish 84% / 15%| ✅ BUY NOW| I warned you about a stop-hunt. SOL| Bullish 51% / 49%| ✅ BUY| I told you to buy and hold. ADA| Bullish 42% / 53%| ✅ BUY SMALL| I warned you the structure could lead the market. BTC| Neutral 45% / 52%| ⏸️ WAIT| I told you to watch the next 48 hours — it has returned to neutral. ETH| Neutral 47% / 52%| ⏸️ HOLD| I told you it was in a long consolidation phase. DOGE| Neutral 48% / 52%| ⏸️ HOLD| I told you to buy yesterday — today, just wait. BNB| Neutral 43% / 53%| ⏸️ WAIT| I told you the flip setup did not hold. XRP| Neutral 36% / 55%| ❌ DON'T BUY| I told you to wait until whale selling drops below 50%. XLM| Bearish 28% / 62%| ❌ DON'T BUY| I told you it was following XRP's weakness. XMR| Neutral 15% / 76%| ❌ DON'T BUY| I told you the setup had broken — it became even worse. ZEC| Bullish 41% / 57%| ⏸️ WAIT| I told you to wait for the uncertainty to clear. TRX| Neutral 37% / 55%| ❌ DON'T BUY| I told you not to waste your time on it. BEAT| Bullish 0% / 99%| ❌ DO NOT BUY| I told you this was a trap.
Key Takeaway:
WLD is the strongest coin today. The stop-hunt probability is estimated at 92%, while whales are buying at an 84% rate. That combination suggests strong accumulation and significant bullish momentum.
I don't have new information for you on XLM. Because nothing got better. $XLM
Market structure BEARISH. $0.1882. Down 0.74%. Whales selling 62% vs 28% buying — that's brutal. Bullish manipulation only 6%. OI down 4.2%. Funding rate negative.
Last night I told you XLM follows XRP. XRP is still down. So XLM is still down.
Tap $XLM below if you want to watch. Don't buy. Not yet.
Come back when XRP finds a bottom. Until then, this one is on my "do not touch" list.