DON'T GET COMFORTABLE WITH CHEAP OIL
Even as oil prices crash to $87 on peace hopes, analysts warn that the relief could be temporary .
$BNB
What ING analysts are saying:
"We believe the market reaches an inflection point in late July if we do not see oil flows resuming before then. This is when inventory levels and seasonally stronger demand push prices significantly higher towards $120-130 per barrel" .
Why oil remains vulnerable:
1. GLOBAL OIL STOCKS ARE CRITICALLY LOW – The US military has confirmed that commercial ships continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic remains extremely limited. Global and regional oil stocks are still low and could drift lower even with a deal .
2. SUMMER DEMAND IS COMING – Peak seasonal fuel demand could rapidly tighten markets.
3. THE STRAIT REMAINS DANGEROUS – On Thursday, Iran announced a complete closure of the strait, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through. The strait normally carries a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments .
Goldman Sachs' take:
The bank lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80/barrel on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling and a security premium for disruptions .
Again Capital's warning:
"This really can't go on much longer before there are shortages," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital .
👇 Are you worried about oil spiking again? Type "WORRIED" or "NOT WORRIED" in the comments.
#OilPrices #EnergyCrisis #Iran #StraitOfHormuz #Commodities
Even as oil prices crash to $87 on peace hopes, analysts warn that the relief could be temporary .
$BNB
What ING analysts are saying:
"We believe the market reaches an inflection point in late July if we do not see oil flows resuming before then. This is when inventory levels and seasonally stronger demand push prices significantly higher towards $120-130 per barrel" .
Why oil remains vulnerable:
1. GLOBAL OIL STOCKS ARE CRITICALLY LOW – The US military has confirmed that commercial ships continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic remains extremely limited. Global and regional oil stocks are still low and could drift lower even with a deal .
2. SUMMER DEMAND IS COMING – Peak seasonal fuel demand could rapidly tighten markets.
3. THE STRAIT REMAINS DANGEROUS – On Thursday, Iran announced a complete closure of the strait, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through. The strait normally carries a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments .
Goldman Sachs' take:
The bank lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80/barrel on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling and a security premium for disruptions .
Again Capital's warning:
"This really can't go on much longer before there are shortages," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital .
👇 Are you worried about oil spiking again? Type "WORRIED" or "NOT WORRIED" in the comments.
#OilPrices #EnergyCrisis #Iran #StraitOfHormuz #Commodities