Joao Wedson

Bitcoin Market Cap / Global M2 Ratio has been marking Bitcoin price tops with impressive accuracy. And the trendline makes this very clear. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap represents only 0.94% of Global M2. This means that even after multiple cycles, ETFs, institutional adoption, and more than 15 years of history, Bitcoin has still captured less than 1% of global monetary liquidity. But here is the key point: At the last major top in October 2025, Bitcoin represented exactly 2% of Global M2. In other words, this ratio helps us understand when Bitcoin is becoming overheated relative to global liquidity, and when it is losing monetary share again. It is a simple, visual, and powerful way to analyze the relationship between the crypto market and global monetary policy. Liquidity drives cycles. And this chart helps reveal where Bitcoin stands inside that cycle.

This chart helps define major bottoms and tops in Zcash (ZEC), making it very useful for estimating whether the asset is expensive or cheap. It is based on the CVDD model implemented by the Research team at Alphractal.

But another chart that stands out is the MVRV Z-Score, which recently made a pullback very close to 0. This happened because, during the latest drop, ZEC tested its Realized Price and then rallied more than 90% after the dump, showing that this on-chain level acted as a very strong support.

However, if $ZEC drops below $360, it will likely return to a more aggressive Bear Market phase.

This is a key region that bulls need to defend. Otherwise, we will need to analyze the CVDD Channel more closely again to identify lower on-chain levels, which currently range from $48 to $170.

The $48 level would be the most aggressive scenario, and interestingly, it was also the level that marked the bottom in the previous cycle.

In other words, ZEC needs to stay above $360. Otherwise, it may enter a strong capitulation phase.

Alphractal.com

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The number of crypto influencers and social media posts is starting to rise again. This is happening across topics related to BTC, ETH, SOL, and many other cryptocurrencies. Usually, influencers appear in two situations: Bull markets and moments of euphoria Bear markets and moments of fear The most recent numbers are related to widespread fear. Track sentiment metrics and make decisions using a type of analysis that is not only powerful, but also helps you escape the herd effect. See more at Alphractal.com.

Bitcoin Update: Leverage Pressure Zone The chart shows that we have left the Extreme Leverage phase and moved into Moderate and Slight Leverage. In other words, from now on, the risk of forced liquidations has already dropped significantly, since many traders were liquidated last week. However, we have not yet reached the blue/purple zone, which represents extreme deleveraging. Historically, that is a fantastic region to gain exposure with greater safety. That phase has not happened yet, and it will probably take a few more weeks or months before we get there. Be careful with the derivatives market. If you do not understand its health, you can be liquidated at any moment. Focus on the Alpha.

For the first time in history, Ethereum’s market cap is now the same as Tether’s market cap. But what is even more intriguing is the Tether Market Cap vs Ethereum Market Cap Ratio, which has formed fascinating trendlines that have marked extremely precise tops and bottoms throughout Ethereum’s history. And right now, it is testing the lower trendline again. 🫣 Use this information however you want. #Ethereum $ETH $USDT

⚠️Crypto market sentiment is now in Extreme Fear and flashing “Very Bearish” according to sentiment metrics. And, as usual, Google searches related to crypto are rising again, intensifying the panic even more. We’re heading into a week of heavy volatility. Stay sharp. Follow the Alpha. Alphractal.com

⚠️Dogecoin is in a price bottoming phase!

This metric has been one of the most accurate throughout Dogecoin’s history. Every time $DOGE approached it or spent just a few days below it, major price bottoms followed.

The latest signal will be triggered whenever Dogecoin drops below $0.08.

The smartest investors will accumulate a lot of DOGE below $0.08.

And I’m warning you ahead of time.

So accumulate during the capitulation phase and hold this crazy memecoin for a long time!

Follow the Alpha on@Alphractal (https://x.com/Alphractal ) and thank me later!
Alphractal.com

Several times in recent history, Bitcoin started falling before the S&P 500. In many moments, BTC acted as an early warning signal for selling pressure in traditional markets. This became even more evident after the Corona Dump in 2020, when the correlation between crypto, global liquidity, and risk assets became much more sensitive. Bitcoin trades 24/7. The S&P 500 does not. That is why, when liquidity starts drying up, BTC often feels it first. Maybe crypto is not just “more volatile.” Maybe it is the first market to scream when risk starts leaving the table. Alphractal.com

Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit has reached a new low.

But the Supply in Loss has still not reached the same level seen when BTC hit $60K in early February.

Few short-term investors are currently in profit, but February’s capitulation was much worse.

Alphractal.com

On-chain signals continue to work extremely well. Metrics like Reserve Risk Indicators are a great example, especially for understanding sentiment across UTXO-based blockchains. Those who took these signals seriously had the chance to reduce exposure in assets like $BTC , $LTC and $DOGE at much better moments. Now, the same data is starting to show where accumulation opportunities may appear again. Reserve Risk helps measure long-term holder conviction versus market pricing. When readings are low, risk/reward has historically been more attractive. When readings are high, the market is often overheated. When combined with activity measures inspired by VOCDD and MVOCDD, we can better identify when long-term holders are quiet, when they are distributing, and when the market is entering a more interesting accumulation zone. This is why on-chain data still matters. It does not predict every candle. But it helps identify when the crowd is late, when holders are selling, and when the risk/reward starts to change. Data > Narratives. Alphractal.com

If you are long, it may be time to seriously reassess your stop loss and keep it closer. Liquidation levels below the current price are likely to hit many traders in the next hours. When price starts accelerating toward these zones, cascading orders can trigger across dozens of exchanges at the same time. This is why crypto is not a simple market. Without the right tools in your hands, you are basically going to war without weapons, tanks, or drones. Data is not optional here. Focus on the Alpha. Alphractal.com $BTC

Bitcoin: Leverage Pressure Zone🔥

This new model tracks when Bitcoin derivatives leverage becomes unusually stretched relative to the market’s underlying capital structure.

To build this, we combine derivatives data from 29 exchanges with on-chain data, creating a broader view of leverage pressure across the market.

Green and blue zones indicate periods of deleveraging or low leverage pressure.

Yellow represents a more neutral environment.

Orange, red and dark red zones indicate increasingly elevated leverage pressure, where the market becomes more vulnerable to liquidation cascades, volatility spikes and forced position unwinds.

The magic is that markets tend to move toward liquidity.

When leverage becomes excessive, the market eventually enters a deleveraging phase. This cycle keeps repeating over and over, almost like an infinite machine designed to extract money from unprepared investors.

The key point is simple: It is not just about how much Open Interest exists.

It is about whether leverage is becoming excessive compared to the capital base supporting the market.

Now combine this with Liquidation Levels and Alpha On-Chain Levels, and you start seeing the market with eagle eyes.

You are no longer reacting like everyone else.
You are 10 steps ahead.

This chart was created using the new Chart Editor, which will be launched this week on Alphractal.

Alphractal.com

Few addresses are truly accumulating right now compared to 60 days ago.

Strategy (MSTR) may keep buying, but its accumulation is basically insignificant when compared to the scale of the entire Bitcoin blockchain.

Real accumulation usually happens in moments of extreme fear, when the crowd is convinced that Bitcoin is dead.

Alphractal.com

Bitcoin’s Market Cap Growth Rate has been declining throughout each cycle.

But it’s not just that. It is also a narrowing effect, meaning that with each cycle, upside moves tend to become weaker, and downside moves tend to become weaker as well.

We may be close to a bottom, but according to this rule, the bottom has not happened yet.

Let’s keep following the Alpha signals!

Alphractal.com

Bitcoin has just lost the Short-Term Holder Realized Price again.

Bulls tried to defend the $78,000 region, but if Bitcoin stays below this level, the higher probability is a new capitulation phase, as bears are showing signs of strength.

Always seek the Alpha.
Alphractal.com

Is the Bitcoin cycle dead? Many keep repeating that. But for now, the Bitcoin Repetition Fractal Cycle and the Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index are still holding. And I understand how hard it is to believe that right now. The market is designed to make the majority doubt exactly before confirmation. But Alpha-level metrics are not showing a “cycle death.” They are simply following Bitcoin’s natural course, just as they have in previous cycles. Bitcoin: Repetition Fractal Cycle ⏳ Bitcoin: Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index, ADCI ⏳ We have less than 5 months to find out whether this entire psychological simulation the crypto community is living through was just noise… or simply another fractal repetition before confirmation. Alphractal.com

The balance of addresses holding more than $10M across all stablecoins has not been rising since the crypto market reached all-time highs in October 2025.

Stablecoins are the real liquidity heart of crypto. You should be paying closer attention to them. Alphractal.com

The Long/Short Ratio across the Top 5 Exchanges for Ethereum has been rising. Is that a good or bad sign?

I asked Alpha AI:

“The Long/Short Ratio is rising across the top 5 exchanges for Ethereum. Is this good or bad?”

Here was the answer:

“Looking at Ethereum’s Long/Short Ratio, a rise like this is not automatically good. In the current context, it is becoming more cautious-to-negative from a contrarian perspective, because the ratio has climbed from roughly 1.33 a month ago to about 2.77 now.

That means long positioning is increasingly dominant, and when crowd positioning becomes too one-sided, the market often becomes more fragile rather than stronger.

What matters is how fast this sentiment has shifted. Ethereum moved from a moderately long-biased setup into a much more crowded long regime, especially in the last stretch where the ratio pushed above 2.4 and then to nearly 2.8.

That kind of acceleration usually signals rising optimism and leverage concentration, not necessarily healthy spot-led demand. In practice, this can support upside briefly if momentum is still strong, but it also increases the risk of sharp flushes if price stalls and longs start getting squeezed.

So the clean read is: bullish sentiment, but elevated risk.

Tactically, this is better interpreted as a warning of crowding than a clean confirmation signal. If Ethereum keeps advancing while this stays elevated, the move may still continue, but the structure becomes less forgiving.

If the ratio starts rolling over after this steep rise, that would matter because it could reflect positioning being unwound rather than fresh conviction entering the market.

On Alphractal, the best next step is to compare this with Top Trader Long/Short positioning and Taker Buy/Sell pressure. That helps separate retail-style crowding from stronger directional participation.

Data > Narratives

Ask Alpha AI anything for free.

Visit: Alphractal.com $ETH

Any attempt at a rally in $BTC and $ETH could simply be a trap for the final liquidations? Probably yes. Stay alert.