CryptoMaxia

Bitcoin $BTC $87,963 has vastly underperformed gold (XAU) in the past year, dropping by 13.25% compared with the precious metal’s almost 100% rally. Can BTC catch up to gold’s gains?

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million, with about 1 million left to be mined.

Gold miners increase production when prices rise, unlike Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin’s small size versus gold amplifies any potential upside even from minor reallocations.

Bitcoin supply does not depend on demand.
Bitcoin supply does not increase when prices rise unlike gold.
The network issues new BTC according to a preset schedule that gradually slows through halving events until it reaches the fixed limit of 21 million coins.
Miners can add machines or switch them off, but they cannot change how many coins the network issues.
“The problem with gold as a long-term treasury asset is that it lacks a difficulty adjustment and halving,” said Pierre Rochard, the CEO of Bitcoin Bond Company, adding:
“As gold prices rise, more money flows into new mining projects, which speeds up the increase of the existing gold supply.”

According to the World Gold Council, global gold output has grown significantly over the last 25 years, rising from roughly 2,300 tonnes in 1995 to more than 3,500 tonnes by 2018.
Gold production hit an all-time high of 3,672 tonnes in 2025.
By the end of that year, about 93% of all bitcoins had already been mined, and Bitcoin’s yearly inflation rate stood near 0.81%. Based on Bitbo data, this figure could fall to roughly 0.41% following the next Bitcoin halving expected in March 2028.

Gold’s market cap dwarfs Bitcoin’s
As of January, Bitcoin’s worth was only about 4.30% of gold’s $41.69 trillion market cap.

Even if investors purchase gold for reasons like hard-asset exposure, currency protection, geopolitical risks, or safeguarding long-term purchasing power, Bitcoin can still appeal as an additional, smaller investment option.
Bitcoin only needs a modest share of gold-style demand to rotate into BTC, according to Jeff Walton, chief risk officer at Strive, a BTC treasury company.

With a smaller market cap, that marginal demand can translate into a larger percentage move
Related: Brazil’s largest private bank advises investors to allocate 3% to Bitcoin in 2026
In theory shifting just 5% of gold investments into Bitcoin could bring in over $2 trillion, suggesting a potential 116.25% increase in Bitcoin’s market cap and a price target around $192,000 at current valuations.
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