US PPI and Core PPI just came out, and it's a nightmare for the Fed.
US PPI came in at 3.4% vs 2.9% expected, its highest level since February 2025.
US Core PPI came in at 3.9% vs 3.7% expected, its highest level since January 2025.
This means the core inflation has started to heat up, and here's why this is bad.
First of all, the impact of recent oil prices has just started to show its impact on inflation.
Unemployment is already spiking higher while GDP clearly shows that the US economy is struggling.
If we talk about other aspects of the economy:
The housing market has reached its most unaffordable level.
The gap between buyers and sellers is at its highest level in history.
The private credit market is showing signs of stress.
China-Taiwan tensions are raising concerns around the AI bubble.
And on top of that, the global uncertainty only seems to be going up.
This is why the market now thinks there won't be a definite rate cut in 2026, which is a bad sign for risk-on assets.
So what's next for the markets?
Today, the FOMC interest rate decision and Powell's press conference will happen, and I think he's going to be hawkish.
This is because the Fed's primary concern has been inflation lately, and despite hikes and tightening, the Fed hasn't been able to bring that under control.
I'm not trying to scare anyone, but looking at the data, today's FOMC could be similar to what we saw in November 2025.
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