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For-Exx Kripto
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For-Exx Kripto

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Cryptocurrencies,Stocks and Financial Instruments /// Youtube / Twitter : @ForExxKripto
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Artículo
Bitcoin Rises Despite Record ETF Outflows: What's Driving the Recovery?US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest monthly net outflow on record in June, raising concerns about weakening institutional demand. According to market data, approximately $4.5 billion left spot Bitcoin ETFs during the month, bringing total net outflows above $5 billion in recent months. Despite this significant capital withdrawal, Bitcoin has remained resilient and has continued to recover, leaving many investors wondering why the market has not reacted more negatively. Why Are ETF Flows Important? Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the primary investment vehicles for institutional investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset. As a result, ETF inflows and outflows are often viewed as a key indicator of institutional sentiment. The recent outflows have largely been attributed to portfolio rebalancing, higher interest rates, and a broader reduction in exposure to risk assets. Several of the largest US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced notable redemptions throughout June. Why Is Bitcoin Still Moving Higher? Although ETF outflows would normally be expected to create selling pressure, Bitcoin's price is influenced by a much broader set of market factors. Long-Term Holders Continue Accumulating On-chain data suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders have resumed accumulation. Rather than triggering a prolonged decline, much of the selling pressure appears to have been absorbed by investors with long-term conviction, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available on the open market. Whale Accumulation Remains Strong Large Bitcoin holders have also continued adding to their positions during recent weeks. While some institutional investors reduced ETF exposure, high-net-worth investors and private funds appear to have viewed lower prices as an attractive buying opportunity. ETF Outflows Do Not Always Mean Bitcoin Is Being Sold An ETF redemption does not necessarily translate into immediate selling in the spot market. Investors may simply rotate into another ETF, shift capital to futures markets, execute over-the-counter transactions, or temporarily move into cash. For this reason, ETF flow data should not be interpreted as the sole driver of Bitcoin's price action. Improving Technical Structure Bitcoin has successfully defended several important support levels during recent market weakness. Declining selling pressure, short liquidations, and improving market sentiment have all contributed to the recent recovery. Markets Continue to Price Future Expectations Financial markets typically price future expectations rather than current conditions. Optimism surrounding potential monetary policy easing, improving regulatory clarity, and continued institutional adoption has helped support investor confidence despite the recent ETF outflows. Key Risks to Watch While Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, continued ETF outflows could eventually weigh on market sentiment if they persist over an extended period. Investors should continue monitoring ETF flow trends, Federal Reserve policy expectations, macroeconomic data, and institutional demand, as these factors are likely to remain the primary drivers of Bitcoin's medium-term direction. Conclusion Bitcoin's recent performance highlights that ETF flows are only one component of the broader market landscape. Strong accumulation by long-term holders, continued buying from large investors, and improving expectations for future market conditions have helped offset the impact of record ETF outflows. Going forward, spot Bitcoin ETF activity, institutional positioning, and upcoming US economic data will remain key indicators for investors seeking to evaluate the strength and sustainability of Bitcoin's current recovery. $BTC

Bitcoin Rises Despite Record ETF Outflows: What's Driving the Recovery?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest monthly net outflow on record in June, raising concerns about weakening institutional demand. According to market data, approximately $4.5 billion left spot Bitcoin ETFs during the month, bringing total net outflows above $5 billion in recent months.
Despite this significant capital withdrawal, Bitcoin has remained resilient and has continued to recover, leaving many investors wondering why the market has not reacted more negatively.
Why Are ETF Flows Important?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the primary investment vehicles for institutional investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset. As a result, ETF inflows and outflows are often viewed as a key indicator of institutional sentiment.
The recent outflows have largely been attributed to portfolio rebalancing, higher interest rates, and a broader reduction in exposure to risk assets. Several of the largest US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced notable redemptions throughout June.
Why Is Bitcoin Still Moving Higher?
Although ETF outflows would normally be expected to create selling pressure, Bitcoin's price is influenced by a much broader set of market factors.
Long-Term Holders Continue Accumulating
On-chain data suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders have resumed accumulation. Rather than triggering a prolonged decline, much of the selling pressure appears to have been absorbed by investors with long-term conviction, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available on the open market.
Whale Accumulation Remains Strong
Large Bitcoin holders have also continued adding to their positions during recent weeks. While some institutional investors reduced ETF exposure, high-net-worth investors and private funds appear to have viewed lower prices as an attractive buying opportunity.
ETF Outflows Do Not Always Mean Bitcoin Is Being Sold
An ETF redemption does not necessarily translate into immediate selling in the spot market. Investors may simply rotate into another ETF, shift capital to futures markets, execute over-the-counter transactions, or temporarily move into cash. For this reason, ETF flow data should not be interpreted as the sole driver of Bitcoin's price action.
Improving Technical Structure
Bitcoin has successfully defended several important support levels during recent market weakness. Declining selling pressure, short liquidations, and improving market sentiment have all contributed to the recent recovery.
Markets Continue to Price Future Expectations
Financial markets typically price future expectations rather than current conditions. Optimism surrounding potential monetary policy easing, improving regulatory clarity, and continued institutional adoption has helped support investor confidence despite the recent ETF outflows.
Key Risks to Watch
While Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, continued ETF outflows could eventually weigh on market sentiment if they persist over an extended period.
Investors should continue monitoring ETF flow trends, Federal Reserve policy expectations, macroeconomic data, and institutional demand, as these factors are likely to remain the primary drivers of Bitcoin's medium-term direction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's recent performance highlights that ETF flows are only one component of the broader market landscape. Strong accumulation by long-term holders, continued buying from large investors, and improving expectations for future market conditions have helped offset the impact of record ETF outflows.
Going forward, spot Bitcoin ETF activity, institutional positioning, and upcoming US economic data will remain key indicators for investors seeking to evaluate the strength and sustainability of Bitcoin's current recovery.
$BTC
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Alcista
Ethereum appears to have entered a short-term uptrend after completing a double-bottom pattern and reclaiming the 1,650 level. The next major upside target is around $2,000. $ETH is currently trading near $ 1,740, with bullish momentum remaining intact as long as key support levels continue to hold.
Ethereum appears to have entered a short-term uptrend after completing a double-bottom pattern and reclaiming the 1,650 level. The next major upside target is around $2,000.
$ETH is currently trading near $ 1,740, with bullish momentum remaining intact as long as key support levels continue to hold.
Ripple has broken above the 1.0774 level I highlighted earlier. The next key target is 1.1231. If bulls clear that resistance, the rally could extend toward 1.28. Buyers continue to defend the 1.00 level aggressively, keeping the overall structure constructive. $XRP
Ripple has broken above the 1.0774 level I highlighted earlier. The next key target is 1.1231. If bulls clear that resistance, the rally could extend toward 1.28. Buyers continue to defend the 1.00 level aggressively, keeping the overall structure constructive.
$XRP
For-Exx Kripto
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Alcista
$XRP found support at 1.01 three times, buyers signaled they will not let go of this point, if the 1.0774 level is breached, the upward momentum may increase slightly...
Tomorrow there is a speech by Fed Chairman Warsh, and on Thursday there is Non-Farm Payrolls, these two data points will determine the direction.
Artículo
CRYPTO REPORT — July 2, 2026🔐 **CRYPTO REPORT — 2 JULY 2026** ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS South Korea halted selling after the KOSPI index dropped 6.5%, with losses exceeding 400B won in market value. According to the WSJ, gold could reach $5,000/oz by early 2027. US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, significantly below the 113,000 forecast, signaling a cooling labor market. White House advisor Hassett said employment data is consistent with a strong economy. AI and semiconductor stocks extended losses, with Asian markets losing over $730B in value. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ₿ BITCOIN Bitcoin rose following the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data and is currently trading around 61,800. The weaker labor data increased expectations that no further aggressive rate hikes may occur, providing short-term support to crypto markets. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📋 CRYPTO MARKETS NEWS Tiger Research turned more constructive on BTC, stating the market may be in the final stage of its bear cycle. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS MemeCore ( $M ): ~56–78M tokens, ~ $ 32–45M value | HIGH selling pressure 🔴 Note: One of the largest cliff unlocks of July; may create pressure in low liquidity conditions. StakeStone (STO): ~20.67M tokens, ~$950K–1.05M | MEDIUM pressure 🟡 Opinion (OPN): ~$134K Resolv (RLP): ~$37K ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK Weaker-than-expected US jobs data triggered buying in risk assets. Fed rate hike expectations dropped sharply from ~30% to ~17%, with the probability of multiple hikes reduced after the release. BLS projections suggesting unemployment could reach 61.1% by 2034 have raised concerns about longer-term economic weakness, though the estimate is seen as aggressive. Markets may remain sideways tomorrow due to the US holiday. $BTC

CRYPTO REPORT — July 2, 2026

🔐 **CRYPTO REPORT — 2 JULY 2026**
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🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS
South Korea halted selling after the KOSPI index dropped 6.5%, with losses exceeding 400B won in market value.
According to the WSJ, gold could reach $5,000/oz by early 2027.
US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, significantly below the 113,000 forecast, signaling a cooling labor market.
White House advisor Hassett said employment data is consistent with a strong economy.
AI and semiconductor stocks extended losses, with Asian markets losing over $730B in value.
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₿ BITCOIN
Bitcoin rose following the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data and is currently trading around 61,800.
The weaker labor data increased expectations that no further aggressive rate hikes may occur, providing short-term support to crypto markets.
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📋 CRYPTO MARKETS NEWS
Tiger Research turned more constructive on BTC, stating the market may be in the final stage of its bear cycle.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
MemeCore ( $M ): ~56–78M tokens, ~ $ 32–45M value | HIGH selling pressure 🔴
Note: One of the largest cliff unlocks of July; may create pressure in low liquidity conditions.
StakeStone (STO): ~20.67M tokens, ~$950K–1.05M | MEDIUM pressure 🟡
Opinion (OPN): ~$134K
Resolv (RLP): ~$37K
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🔭 OUTLOOK
Weaker-than-expected US jobs data triggered buying in risk assets. Fed rate hike expectations dropped sharply from ~30% to ~17%, with the probability of multiple hikes reduced after the release.
BLS projections suggesting unemployment could reach 61.1% by 2034 have raised concerns about longer-term economic weakness, though the estimate is seen as aggressive.
Markets may remain sideways tomorrow due to the US holiday.
$BTC
Artículo
CRYPTO REPORT — July 1, 2026🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — July 1, 2026 🌐 MARKET OVERVIEW $BTC fell to $57,742, its lowest level since September 2024, briefly breaking below the 200-week moving average before recovering toward $60,000 after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks had eased. White House adviser Kevin Hassett called further rate hikes a mistake, while Trump and Vance expressed optimism over Iran talks. MiCA's transition period officially ended, putting more than 3,000 unlicensed crypto firms across Europe at risk of suspension. Crédit Agricole launched the EURXT euro-backed stablecoin. Crypto companies spent a record $189M on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, while Trump disclosed earning more than $500M from World Liberty Financial token sales. U.S. manufacturing slowed in June as the ISM index fell from 54.0 to 53.3, below expectations. China's top diplomat also urged the U.S. to handle Taiwan with "maximum caution." ₿ BITCOIN BTC rebounded after hitting a 21-month low, but on-chain indicators remain weak. Exchange inflows climbed to 122K BTC, well above the yearly average. SOPR remains below 1.0, while spot demand has stayed negative for 208 consecutive days. A confirmed recovery will likely require those indicators to reverse. 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS $ETH continues to trade sideways as EthLabs launches ahead of the Glamsterdam upgrade. AAVE gained about 20% over the past week and recorded its strongest new wallet growth in nearly five years. XRP and HYPE ETFs are attracting part of the capital leaving BTC and ETH funds. 📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS Citigroup lowered its BTC and ETH targets, citing weaker ETF flows and regulatory uncertainty, while cutting its 12-month net ETF inflow forecast to zero. Bitcoin options are seeing rising demand for $50K puts, and gold futures formed a death cross, reflecting a defensive market. Polygon zkEVM will shut down this week. Galaxy Digital lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%. Bybit was added to Singapore's investor alert list. Ledn introduced Tether Gold as collateral. Strategy announced a new capital framework allowing up to $1.25B in BTC sales. June also recorded a record $4.06B in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS $BEAT (Audiera) will unlock 21.24M tokens worth about $49.7M on July 2, equal to roughly 7% of circulating supply. Selling pressure is expected to remain moderate, although weaker market conditions could amplify volatility. 🔭 OUTLOOK Warsh's comments eased inflation concerns and supported BTC, but a lasting recovery still requires ETF outflows to slow, exchange BTC inflows to decline, and the Coinbase Premium to turn positive. Key events ahead include U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate on Thursday (15:30 TRT), Friday's U.S. Independence Day market holiday, and the HYPE unlock worth roughly $630M on July 6, the largest token unlock of the month.

CRYPTO REPORT — July 1, 2026

🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — July 1, 2026
🌐 MARKET OVERVIEW
$BTC fell to $57,742, its lowest level since September 2024, briefly breaking below the 200-week moving average before recovering toward $60,000 after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks had eased. White House adviser Kevin Hassett called further rate hikes a mistake, while Trump and Vance expressed optimism over Iran talks.
MiCA's transition period officially ended, putting more than 3,000 unlicensed crypto firms across Europe at risk of suspension. Crédit Agricole launched the EURXT euro-backed stablecoin. Crypto companies spent a record $189M on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, while Trump disclosed earning more than $500M from World Liberty Financial token sales.
U.S. manufacturing slowed in June as the ISM index fell from 54.0 to 53.3, below expectations. China's top diplomat also urged the U.S. to handle Taiwan with "maximum caution."
₿ BITCOIN
BTC rebounded after hitting a 21-month low, but on-chain indicators remain weak. Exchange inflows climbed to 122K BTC, well above the yearly average. SOPR remains below 1.0, while spot demand has stayed negative for 208 consecutive days. A confirmed recovery will likely require those indicators to reverse.
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
$ETH continues to trade sideways as EthLabs launches ahead of the Glamsterdam upgrade. AAVE gained about 20% over the past week and recorded its strongest new wallet growth in nearly five years. XRP and HYPE ETFs are attracting part of the capital leaving BTC and ETH funds.
📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS
Citigroup lowered its BTC and ETH targets, citing weaker ETF flows and regulatory uncertainty, while cutting its 12-month net ETF inflow forecast to zero. Bitcoin options are seeing rising demand for $50K puts, and gold futures formed a death cross, reflecting a defensive market. Polygon zkEVM will shut down this week. Galaxy Digital lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%. Bybit was added to Singapore's investor alert list. Ledn introduced Tether Gold as collateral. Strategy announced a new capital framework allowing up to $1.25B in BTC sales. June also recorded a record $4.06B in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows.
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
$BEAT (Audiera) will unlock 21.24M tokens worth about $49.7M on July 2, equal to roughly 7% of circulating supply. Selling pressure is expected to remain moderate, although weaker market conditions could amplify volatility.
🔭 OUTLOOK
Warsh's comments eased inflation concerns and supported BTC, but a lasting recovery still requires ETF outflows to slow, exchange BTC inflows to decline, and the Coinbase Premium to turn positive.
Key events ahead include U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate on Thursday (15:30 TRT), Friday's U.S. Independence Day market holiday, and the HYPE unlock worth roughly $630M on July 6, the largest token unlock of the month.
Crypto theft fell 7% in June, with hackers stealing about $75.9 million across 40 major incidents, down from $81.7 million in May,according to blockchain security firm PeckShield. The largest exploit targeted Humanity Protocol( $H ),accounting for $31 million. On-chain analyst Specter first reported suspicious withdrawals on June 9,while the project's investigation later estimated losses at nearly $36 million. Founder Terence Kwok attributed the breach to a compromised private key. Syscoin Bridge lost $10 million after a validation flaw allowed an attacker to mint billions of unbacked SYS tokens. A bot linked to JaredFromSubway. eth,known for MEV sandwich attacks, was reportedly hit by a $ 7.5 million exploit. Other notable June incidents included Secret Network, Polymarket users, SecondFi and TESSERA,with losses ranging from $2.4 million to $ 4.67 million. Aztec's deprecated infrastructure was exploited twice during the month. PeckShield reported losses of about $2.16 million from Aztec Bridge and $2.1 million from Aztec Connect. The Aztec Foundation said both contracts are no longer under its control. Combined losses were estimated at roughly $ 4million Other victims in PeckShield's top 10 included Taiko Bridge ($ 1.7M), Token of Power ($ 1.58M), Raydium ($ 1.34M) and LABUBU/OLPC ($ 1.1M) PeckShield said the Humanity Protocol attacker laundered stolen funds through $BTC ,Solana,Hyperliquid and BNB Chain. Some proceeds were mixed with funds linked to the Kelp DAO attacker,suggesting the same threat actor may be behind both exploits. According to TRM Labs,crypto hacks and exploits have caused more than $750 million in losses in 2026,with most of the damage stemming from two major April attacks. Drift Protocol lost $285 million on April 1 after attackers infiltrated Solana governance signers through months of social engineering. On April 18,Kelp DAO's LayerZero bridge suffered a $292 million exploit after its validator network was compromised
Crypto theft fell 7% in June, with hackers stealing about $75.9 million across 40 major incidents, down from $81.7 million in May,according to blockchain security firm PeckShield.

The largest exploit targeted Humanity Protocol( $H ),accounting for $31 million. On-chain analyst Specter first reported suspicious withdrawals on June 9,while the project's investigation later estimated losses at nearly $36 million. Founder Terence Kwok attributed the breach to a compromised private key.

Syscoin Bridge lost $10 million after a validation flaw allowed an attacker to mint billions of unbacked SYS tokens.

A bot linked to JaredFromSubway. eth,known for MEV sandwich attacks, was reportedly hit by a $ 7.5 million exploit. Other notable June incidents included Secret Network, Polymarket users, SecondFi and TESSERA,with losses ranging from $2.4 million to $ 4.67 million.

Aztec's deprecated infrastructure was exploited twice during the month. PeckShield reported losses of about $2.16 million from Aztec Bridge and $2.1 million from Aztec Connect. The Aztec Foundation said both contracts are no longer under its control. Combined losses were estimated at roughly $ 4million

Other victims in PeckShield's top 10 included Taiko Bridge ($ 1.7M), Token of Power ($ 1.58M), Raydium ($ 1.34M) and LABUBU/OLPC ($ 1.1M)

PeckShield said the Humanity Protocol attacker laundered stolen funds through $BTC ,Solana,Hyperliquid and BNB Chain. Some proceeds were mixed with funds linked to the Kelp DAO attacker,suggesting the same threat actor may be behind both exploits.

According to TRM Labs,crypto hacks and exploits have caused more than $750 million in losses in 2026,with most of the damage stemming from two major April attacks.

Drift Protocol lost $285 million on April 1 after attackers infiltrated Solana governance signers through months of social engineering. On April 18,Kelp DAO's LayerZero bridge suffered a $292 million exploit after its validator network was compromised
Artículo
Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Be Released Tomorrow: Expectations & Scenario Analysis**Due to the July 4 holiday, the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be released tomorrow (Thursday, July 2) at 15:30 TRT, instead of its usual Friday schedule. Current Outlook: Consensus Forecast: ~114K Expected Unemployment Rate: 4.3%–4.4% (previous: 4.3%) Previous Reading (May): 172K — significantly above the 85K consensus estimate Fed Policy Rate: 3.50%–3.75%, unchanged at the June meeting Middle East-driven energy price risks continue to keep inflation concerns elevated, making this month's NFP report more important than usual. Scenario 1 — Strong Report (150K+ / Unemployment 4.2% or Lower) Markets would likely interpret the data as a sign that the economy remains resilient, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance. Discussions about another rate hike could even re-emerge. Dollar: Strong rally — the DXY could attempt an upside breakout. Gold: Likely to remain under pressure, with an increased risk of a sharp short-term decline as real yield expectations rise. Bitcoin: Risk sentiment could be mixed. The initial reaction is likely negative, as renewed rate hike fears imply tighter liquidity conditions. Stocks (S&P 500 / Nasdaq): The initial reaction may be positive on stronger growth expectations, but concerns about an overheating economy could quickly cap or reverse gains. Scenario 2 — Weak Report (Below 60K / Unemployment 4.5%+) A weak report would strengthen expectations of an economic slowdown, increasing the likelihood of the Fed pivoting toward monetary easing sooner. Dollar: Weakens — the DXY is likely to move lower. Gold: Strong upside potential, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of lower real yields. Bitcoin: A weaker dollar and easing expectations are generally positive. However, recession fears could weigh on overall risk appetite. The broader bias remains bullish, but volatility is expected to stay elevated. Stocks: Initial downside pressure due to earnings growth concerns, though expectations of future rate cuts could limit losses and support a medium-term recovery. Scenario 3 — In Line with Expectations (~110K–120K / Unemployment 4.3%–4.4%) No major surprise. Markets would likely reaffirm the current Fed outlook of steady rates and a data-dependent policy stance. Dollar: Limited movement, trading in a relatively tight range. Gold: Neutral, likely to remain in its current consolidation range. Bitcoin: Crypto-specific catalysts, such as ETF inflows and liquidation activity, are likely to have a greater impact than macroeconomic factors. Stocks: Mildly positive, as the removal of uncertainty could improve overall market sentiment. Note: Elevated energy price risks stemming from the Middle East could distort the market's typical NFP reaction this month. A combination of strong employment data and persistently high energy prices could push the Fed toward a more hawkish stance than usual, making the impact of Scenario 1 potentially stronger than historical averages. $BTC

Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Be Released Tomorrow: Expectations & Scenario Analysis**

Due to the July 4 holiday, the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be released tomorrow (Thursday, July 2) at 15:30 TRT, instead of its usual Friday schedule.
Current Outlook:
Consensus Forecast: ~114K
Expected Unemployment Rate: 4.3%–4.4% (previous: 4.3%)
Previous Reading (May): 172K — significantly above the 85K consensus estimate
Fed Policy Rate: 3.50%–3.75%, unchanged at the June meeting
Middle East-driven energy price risks continue to keep inflation concerns elevated, making this month's NFP report more important than usual.
Scenario 1 — Strong Report (150K+ / Unemployment 4.2% or Lower)
Markets would likely interpret the data as a sign that the economy remains resilient, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance. Discussions about another rate hike could even re-emerge.
Dollar: Strong rally — the DXY could attempt an upside breakout.
Gold: Likely to remain under pressure, with an increased risk of a sharp short-term decline as real yield expectations rise.
Bitcoin: Risk sentiment could be mixed. The initial reaction is likely negative, as renewed rate hike fears imply tighter liquidity conditions.
Stocks (S&P 500 / Nasdaq): The initial reaction may be positive on stronger growth expectations, but concerns about an overheating economy could quickly cap or reverse gains.
Scenario 2 — Weak Report (Below 60K / Unemployment 4.5%+)
A weak report would strengthen expectations of an economic slowdown, increasing the likelihood of the Fed pivoting toward monetary easing sooner.
Dollar: Weakens — the DXY is likely to move lower.
Gold: Strong upside potential, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of lower real yields.
Bitcoin: A weaker dollar and easing expectations are generally positive. However, recession fears could weigh on overall risk appetite. The broader bias remains bullish, but volatility is expected to stay elevated.
Stocks: Initial downside pressure due to earnings growth concerns, though expectations of future rate cuts could limit losses and support a medium-term recovery.
Scenario 3 — In Line with Expectations (~110K–120K / Unemployment 4.3%–4.4%)
No major surprise. Markets would likely reaffirm the current Fed outlook of steady rates and a data-dependent policy stance.
Dollar: Limited movement, trading in a relatively tight range.
Gold: Neutral, likely to remain in its current consolidation range.
Bitcoin: Crypto-specific catalysts, such as ETF inflows and liquidation activity, are likely to have a greater impact than macroeconomic factors.
Stocks: Mildly positive, as the removal of uncertainty could improve overall market sentiment.
Note: Elevated energy price risks stemming from the Middle East could distort the market's typical NFP reaction this month. A combination of strong employment data and persistently high energy prices could push the Fed toward a more hawkish stance than usual, making the impact of Scenario 1 potentially stronger than historical averages.
$BTC
🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — June 30, 2026 🌐 TOP HEADLINES Wall Street tech stocks sold off sharply, with the "Magnificent 7" losing $2.3T combined. Microsoft is down over 18% this month, on track for its worst monthly performance in 25 years. CZ said Binance withdrew its Greece MiCA application due to political interference. No high-level US-Iran talks are planned in Doha. Central banks reportedly plan to shift away from dollar assets toward gold and euros. US equities close a strong quarter (S&P +14%, Nasdaq +20%) while gold heads for its worst quarter in 13 years, down 13%. Iran has set a precondition of an interim deal before further US talks. ₿ BITCOIN $BTC trades in the $58,000–$59,000 range, down roughly 20% in June on ETF outflows and weak institutional demand. Critical support: $57,500–$58,000; a break below opens $55,000–$56,000. Volume remains thin with limited buying interest. 📋 KEY HEADLINES • Avalanche told regulators it may not survive past year-end. • A Solana-linked firm signed a crypto hub deal for Kazakhstan's Alatau City. • Tom Lee says "window dressing" is amplifying crypto weakness. • Magic Eden faces a class action in the US over alleged misleading ads. • SEC fined crypto platform NanoBit over $5M. • Bitcoin ETFs logged an 8th straight day of outflows; June total reached $ 4.3B. • Markets are pricing a 70% chance BTC falls below $50K this year. 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — July 1 EigenCloud (EIGEN) — ~$ 8.33M, 5% of supply. 🟡 MEDIUM Kite AI (KITE) — ~$6.88–7M, 2.5% of supply. 🟡 LOW-MEDIUM Combined: ~$15–20M, no major cliff. 🔭 OUTLOOK Bitcoin remains fragile below $60K as ETF outflows and macro pressure weigh on price; $57.5K–$58K is the key support zone to watch. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tomorrow — markets will parse his tone closely. Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls is the month's key data point. US markets are closed Friday for the holiday, making this a shortened trading week.
🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — June 30, 2026

🌐 TOP HEADLINES

Wall Street tech stocks sold off sharply, with the "Magnificent 7" losing $2.3T combined. Microsoft is down over 18% this month, on track for its worst monthly performance in 25 years. CZ said Binance withdrew its Greece MiCA application due to political interference. No high-level US-Iran talks are planned in Doha. Central banks reportedly plan to shift away from dollar assets toward gold and euros. US equities close a strong quarter (S&P +14%, Nasdaq +20%) while gold heads for its worst quarter in 13 years, down 13%. Iran has set a precondition of an interim deal before further US talks.

₿ BITCOIN

$BTC trades in the $58,000–$59,000 range, down roughly 20% in June on ETF outflows and weak institutional demand. Critical support: $57,500–$58,000; a break below opens $55,000–$56,000. Volume remains thin with limited buying interest.

📋 KEY HEADLINES

• Avalanche told regulators it may not survive past year-end.

• A Solana-linked firm signed a crypto hub deal for Kazakhstan's Alatau City.

• Tom Lee says "window dressing" is amplifying crypto weakness.

• Magic Eden faces a class action in the US over alleged misleading ads.

• SEC fined crypto platform NanoBit over $5M.

• Bitcoin ETFs logged an 8th straight day of outflows; June total reached $ 4.3B.

• Markets are pricing a 70% chance BTC falls below $50K this year.

🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — July 1

EigenCloud (EIGEN) — ~$ 8.33M, 5% of supply. 🟡 MEDIUM

Kite AI (KITE) — ~$6.88–7M, 2.5% of supply. 🟡 LOW-MEDIUM

Combined: ~$15–20M, no major cliff.

🔭 OUTLOOK

Bitcoin remains fragile below $60K as ETF outflows and macro pressure weigh on price; $57.5K–$58K is the key support zone to watch. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tomorrow — markets will parse his tone closely. Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls is the month's key data point. US markets are closed Friday for the holiday, making this a shortened trading week.
Major Economic Events in July All major central banks—including the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE), and European Central Bank (ECB)—will announce their interest rate decisions. In addition, key economic releases such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to be among the most closely watched market-moving events of the month. $BTC $XRP
Major Economic Events in July

All major central banks—including the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE), and European Central Bank (ECB)—will announce their interest rate decisions.

In addition, key economic releases such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to be among the most closely watched market-moving events of the month.
$BTC $XRP
Verificado
According to Protos, Avalanche Treasury Corp (AVAT), the largest publicly traded $AVAX treasury company, quietly warned regulators yesterday that it may not survive through the end of the year. Last October, the company promoted a $ 1 billion AVAX treasury. Today, its market capitalization has fallen below $30 million. Just weeks after its highly anticipated Nasdaq debut, AVAT issued a going-concern warning following a 93% collapse in its share price. Its operating subsidiary reported a quarterly loss exceeding $26 million, almost entirely due to the decline in the fair value of its AVAX holdings. AVAX is down 47% year-to-date and nearly two-thirds over the past year. The company spent about $265 million acquiring AVAX, but the position was worth only around $123 million at the end of March, leaving it with losses exceeding 50%. AVAT completed its SPAC merger and listed in June. Shares that traded above $10 at the start of the month plunged after investors reviewed additional SEC filings, closing at $ 1.85 on June 11. The selloff continued, with shares recently trading below $0.73, representing a 93% decline in just one month. The situation is further complicated by the fact that roughly 7.8 million of its 13.8 million AVAX tokens have been pledged as collateral for loans. In its latest financial statements, the company acknowledged that substantial doubt remains about its ability to continue as a going concern. AVAT is not the only company struggling with an AVAX treasury strategy. AgriFORCE Growing Systems, renamed AVAX One last September, announced plans to raise about $550 million to acquire more than $700 million worth of AVAX, backed by several crypto funds and advised by Anthony Scaramucci. Today, AVAX One's market value is around $43 million, with its stock down 68% year-to-date and 93% over the past 12 months.
According to Protos, Avalanche Treasury Corp (AVAT), the largest publicly traded $AVAX treasury company, quietly warned regulators yesterday that it may not survive through the end of the year.

Last October, the company promoted a $ 1 billion AVAX treasury. Today, its market capitalization has fallen below $30 million.

Just weeks after its highly anticipated Nasdaq debut, AVAT issued a going-concern warning following a 93% collapse in its share price. Its operating subsidiary reported a quarterly loss exceeding $26 million, almost entirely due to the decline in the fair value of its AVAX holdings. AVAX is down 47% year-to-date and nearly two-thirds over the past year.

The company spent about $265 million acquiring AVAX, but the position was worth only around $123 million at the end of March, leaving it with losses exceeding 50%.

AVAT completed its SPAC merger and listed in June. Shares that traded above $10 at the start of the month plunged after investors reviewed additional SEC filings, closing at $ 1.85 on June 11. The selloff continued, with shares recently trading below $0.73, representing a 93% decline in just one month.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that roughly 7.8 million of its 13.8 million AVAX tokens have been pledged as collateral for loans.

In its latest financial statements, the company acknowledged that substantial doubt remains about its ability to continue as a going concern.

AVAT is not the only company struggling with an AVAX treasury strategy. AgriFORCE Growing Systems, renamed AVAX One last September, announced plans to raise about $550 million to acquire more than $700 million worth of AVAX, backed by several crypto funds and advised by Anthony Scaramucci.

Today, AVAX One's market value is around $43 million, with its stock down 68% year-to-date and 93% over the past 12 months.
·
--
Alcista
$XRP found support at 1.01 three times, buyers signaled they will not let go of this point, if the 1.0774 level is breached, the upward momentum may increase slightly... Tomorrow there is a speech by Fed Chairman Warsh, and on Thursday there is Non-Farm Payrolls, these two data points will determine the direction.
$XRP found support at 1.01 three times, buyers signaled they will not let go of this point, if the 1.0774 level is breached, the upward momentum may increase slightly...
Tomorrow there is a speech by Fed Chairman Warsh, and on Thursday there is Non-Farm Payrolls, these two data points will determine the direction.
$BTC has found support at the 58,000 level many times recently, which appears to be the last resistance point for the bulls before the next breakout. A break below this will likely target the 56,900 level. Every minute it stays below 60,000 increases this risk.
$BTC has found support at the 58,000 level many times recently, which appears to be the last resistance point for the bulls before the next breakout. A break below this will likely target the 56,900 level. Every minute it stays below 60,000 increases this risk.
🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — 29 June 2026 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS Deutsche Bank reported a record $9.3B outflow from tech funds last week. US special envoys Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Doha to discuss Iran negotiations with Qatari officials. US and Iran technical teams will hold separate meetings on Wednesday with Qatar and Pakistan mediators. The US Supreme Court blocked an attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC is trading just above $59,000 after a weekly drop of more than 6%. ETF outflows continue and derivatives open interest is declining. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS Ethereum trades between $ 1,500– $ 1,600 in a sideways structure with no clear catalyst. Liquidity remains weak across altcoins and selective movements dominate the market. $LUNC has remained weak after breaking below the 6666 level. The 5045 level now stands out as a critical support zone. A confirmed breakdown below 5045 could accelerate the downside and increase selling pressure. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📋 CRYPTO MARKETS NEWS Galaxy Research reduced the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50% (from 60%). Strategy’s market cap has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, signaling weaker investor confidence. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS No major unlocks for June 30. July 1 total unlock volume estimated at $15–20M with no major cliff events. EıgenCloud (~$ 8.33M, 5% supply, medium pressure). KITE AI (~$6.88–7M, 2.5% supply, low–medium pressure). ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK Bitcoin weakness below $60,000 keeps short-term pressure active. July 1 unlocks are limited but may still cause minor price reactions in fragile conditions
🔐 CRYPTO REPORT — 29 June 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS

Deutsche Bank reported a record $9.3B outflow from tech funds last week.
US special envoys Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Doha to discuss Iran negotiations with Qatari officials.
US and Iran technical teams will hold separate meetings on Wednesday with Qatar and Pakistan mediators.
The US Supreme Court blocked an attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
₿ BITCOIN

$BTC is trading just above $59,000 after a weekly drop of more than 6%.
ETF outflows continue and derivatives open interest is declining.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS

Ethereum trades between $ 1,500– $ 1,600 in a sideways structure with no clear catalyst.

Liquidity remains weak across altcoins and selective movements dominate the market.

$LUNC has remained weak after breaking below the 6666 level. The 5045 level now stands out as a critical support zone. A confirmed breakdown below 5045 could accelerate the downside and increase selling pressure.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📋 CRYPTO MARKETS NEWS
Galaxy Research reduced the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50% (from 60%).

Strategy’s market cap has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, signaling weaker investor confidence.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS

No major unlocks for June 30.

July 1 total unlock volume estimated at $15–20M with no major cliff events.

EıgenCloud (~$ 8.33M, 5% supply, medium pressure).
KITE AI (~$6.88–7M, 2.5% supply, low–medium pressure).

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK

Bitcoin weakness below $60,000 keeps short-term pressure active.
July 1 unlocks are limited but may still cause minor price reactions in fragile conditions
Strategy's market value has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time, weakening investor confidence in the Bitcoin strategy pioneered by Michael Saylor. According to Reuters, investors are closely watching Strategy's mNAV ratio, which compares the company's enterprise value with the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The metric gained importance after CEO Phong Le said last year that Strategy could consider selling Bitcoin if the ratio fell below 1. Earlier this month, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder confirmed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, marking a major shift in strategy. The company also reported a larger first-quarter loss as lower Bitcoin prices reduced the value of its holdings. According to Strategy's website, the latest mNAV ratio is 0.99, meaning the company's enterprise value is now below the value of its Bitcoin reserves. Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin said this is negative for investor confidence, adding that Strategy had been the last digital treasury company still trusted by many investors. Strategy's market capitalization closed at $29.54 billion, less than half of its 2024 peak above $71 billion. The stock has fallen more than 45% this year. The company currently holds 847,363 BTC, worth about $50.4 billion based on Sunday's closing Bitcoin price of $59,577.82. Bitcoin was last trading near $59,900, close to a 20-month low and more than 50% below its record high of $126,223 reached last October. Crypto markets have struggled this year due to higher volatility, IPO-related investor speculation, and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. $BTC $MSTR
Strategy's market value has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time, weakening investor confidence in the Bitcoin strategy pioneered by Michael Saylor.

According to Reuters, investors are closely watching Strategy's mNAV ratio, which compares the company's enterprise value with the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The metric gained importance after CEO Phong Le said last year that Strategy could consider selling Bitcoin if the ratio fell below 1.

Earlier this month, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder confirmed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, marking a major shift in strategy. The company also reported a larger first-quarter loss as lower Bitcoin prices reduced the value of its holdings.

According to Strategy's website, the latest mNAV ratio is 0.99, meaning the company's enterprise value is now below the value of its Bitcoin reserves.

Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin said this is negative for investor confidence, adding that Strategy had been the last digital treasury company still trusted by many investors.

Strategy's market capitalization closed at $29.54 billion, less than half of its 2024 peak above $71 billion. The stock has fallen more than 45% this year.

The company currently holds 847,363 BTC, worth about $50.4 billion based on Sunday's closing Bitcoin price of $59,577.82.
Bitcoin was last trading near $59,900, close to a 20-month low and more than 50% below its record high of $126,223 reached last October.

Crypto markets have struggled this year due to higher volatility, IPO-related investor speculation, and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
$BTC $MSTR
Crypto Adoption Is Growing,But Prices Are Falling:How to Read This Paradox Crypto finds new use cases every day.Yet markets tell a different story.The answer lies in what"adoption"actually means. Adoption and Price Are Not the Same Thing Using"adoption"and"price"interchangeably is the biggest obstacle to clear analysis. A network's expanding utility doesn't automatically translate into speculative demand.USDC integration into Visa's payment infrastructure matters for Ethereum's technical value but it creates no direct buying pressure on $ETH . This disconnect is a structural transition phase seen in every maturing asset class. Institutions Are Building Infrastructure,Not Buying Tokens Much of the institutional entry between 2023–2025 wasn't about purchasing tokens it was about building infrastructure.BlackRock's tokenization experiments,JPMorgan's private blockchain,Swift's digital asset bridges none of these generate sustained buying pressure in spot markets.Institutional interest is real,but its market impact looks very different from what retail investors expect. Macro Pressure Writes the Rest of the Story No matter how strong the adoption headlines,crypto remains a risk-on asset class tied to global liquidity.High interest rates structurally pushed capital away from risky assets. Price reflects not just project quality,but global capital flows,dollar liquidity and institutional risk tolerance. Supply Pressure Works Silently As adoption grows,so does token supply.VC unlocks,early investor vesting,and miner sales create constant supply streams.Demand must absorb all of this and adoption is usually linear while supply pressure is cyclical. When Does This Change? Three conditions must align:a rate cycle reversal,effective supply reduction and sustained organic buying pressure from real usage.Historically,all three have never arrived simultaneously. Rising adoption strengthens the long-term thesis.But pricing that thesis requires the right macro foundation $BTC
Crypto Adoption Is Growing,But Prices Are Falling:How to Read This Paradox

Crypto finds new use cases every day.Yet markets tell a different story.The answer lies in what"adoption"actually means.

Adoption and Price Are Not the Same Thing
Using"adoption"and"price"interchangeably is the biggest obstacle to clear analysis. A network's expanding utility doesn't automatically translate into speculative demand.USDC integration into Visa's payment infrastructure matters for Ethereum's technical value but it creates no direct buying pressure on $ETH . This disconnect is a structural transition phase seen in every maturing asset class.

Institutions Are Building Infrastructure,Not Buying Tokens
Much of the institutional entry between 2023–2025 wasn't about purchasing tokens it was about building infrastructure.BlackRock's tokenization experiments,JPMorgan's private blockchain,Swift's digital asset bridges none of these generate sustained buying pressure in spot markets.Institutional interest is real,but its market impact looks very different from what retail investors expect.

Macro Pressure Writes the Rest of the Story
No matter how strong the adoption headlines,crypto remains a risk-on asset class tied to global liquidity.High interest rates structurally pushed capital away from risky assets. Price reflects not just project quality,but global capital flows,dollar liquidity and institutional risk tolerance.

Supply Pressure Works Silently
As adoption grows,so does token supply.VC unlocks,early investor vesting,and miner sales create constant supply streams.Demand must absorb all of this and adoption is usually linear while supply pressure is cyclical.

When Does This Change?
Three conditions must align:a rate cycle reversal,effective supply reduction and sustained organic buying pressure from real usage.Historically,all three have never arrived simultaneously.

Rising adoption strengthens the long-term thesis.But pricing that thesis requires the right macro foundation
$BTC
Verificado
MemeCore $M Collapse and Crypto's Endless Trust Problem Yesterday, MemeCore token dropped from around $ 3 to $0.50 in 30 minutes. The single-day loss reached 85%,wiping out approximately $2.7 billion in market value. No hack,no exploit,no announcement. Selling started and with no real liquidity underneath,the price fell vertically. On-chain analysts revealed that 90–99% of the token supply was under insider control,creating a severe liquidity vacuum the moment selling began. Being listed on major exchanges gives investors a sense of security — but it is not proof of a project's soundness. What disturbed the community as much as the price was the team's silence. MemeCore made no statement,went dark across all channels and no representative came forward. The silence fueled abandonment claims. Unconfirmed — but saying nothing after billions in losses is itself an answer. This is not new. The $LUNC crisis followed similar dynamics:inflated valuation,opaque tokenomics,sudden collapse,lasting trust erosion. The difference: LUNC had a technical trigger. MemeCore needed none structural fragility was enough. What can investors do? Check supply distribution. How much is publicly available,how much sits in a few wallets? Blockchain explorers show this in minutes. Compare market cap to liquidity. MemeCore had a ~$ 3.8B market cap against just $21M in daily volume. The wider that gap,the harder a large sell hits. Watch team communication. Are founders identifiable?Do they go silent under pressure?Avoiding statements during major moves is a serious red flag. Separate hype from price action. Projects inflated by influencer content deflate just as fast. Size positions accordingly. Speculative memecoin exposure should stay small. MemeCore's crash saw $ 8.26M of $9.27M total liquidations hit long positions. The trust problem is not leaving crypto.But knowing what you're buying into is the minimum required to avoid being caught in these collapses.
MemeCore $M Collapse and Crypto's Endless Trust Problem

Yesterday, MemeCore token dropped from around $ 3 to $0.50 in 30 minutes. The single-day loss reached 85%,wiping out approximately $2.7 billion in market value. No hack,no exploit,no announcement. Selling started and with no real liquidity underneath,the price fell vertically.

On-chain analysts revealed that 90–99% of the token supply was under insider control,creating a severe liquidity vacuum the moment selling began. Being listed on major exchanges gives investors a sense of security — but it is not proof of a project's soundness.

What disturbed the community as much as the price was the team's silence. MemeCore made no statement,went dark across all channels and no representative came forward. The silence fueled abandonment claims. Unconfirmed — but saying nothing after billions in losses is itself an answer.

This is not new. The $LUNC crisis followed similar dynamics:inflated valuation,opaque tokenomics,sudden collapse,lasting trust erosion. The difference: LUNC had a technical trigger. MemeCore needed none structural fragility was enough.

What can investors do?

Check supply distribution. How much is publicly available,how much sits in a few wallets? Blockchain explorers show this in minutes.

Compare market cap to liquidity. MemeCore had a ~$ 3.8B market cap against just $21M in daily volume. The wider that gap,the harder a large sell hits.

Watch team communication. Are founders identifiable?Do they go silent under pressure?Avoiding statements during major moves is a serious red flag.

Separate hype from price action. Projects inflated by influencer content deflate just as fast.

Size positions accordingly. Speculative memecoin exposure should stay small. MemeCore's crash saw $ 8.26M of $9.27M total liquidations hit long positions.

The trust problem is not leaving crypto.But knowing what you're buying into is the minimum required to avoid being caught in these collapses.
I haven't mentioned the wedge pattern on $LUNC , which I've been drawing attention to since last year, for a while now because it's a long-term formation. As I predicted, the wedge pattern started working about two months earlier than expected, and it's still functioning; nothing has broken, changed, or collapsed... The only downside of the wedge is that it's a long-term formation, and it continues to work perfectly... As I predicted, it first crossed 8200, then dropped to zero, and is now consolidating. Further upward moves will likely occur; it's just a matter of time. I had previously given the formation targets and where it would reach...
I haven't mentioned the wedge pattern on $LUNC , which I've been drawing attention to since last year, for a while now because it's a long-term formation. As I predicted, the wedge pattern started working about two months earlier than expected, and it's still functioning; nothing has broken, changed, or collapsed...
The only downside of the wedge is that it's a long-term formation, and it continues to work perfectly...
As I predicted, it first crossed 8200, then dropped to zero, and is now consolidating. Further upward moves will likely occur; it's just a matter of time. I had previously given the formation targets and where it would reach...
Verificado
June 29 – July 3, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TSI - UTC + 3) 🎯 Week’s Main Theme A short, intense week: Markets close Thursday. Friday is a US holiday. Warsh speaks at the ECB symposium in Portugal — his first direct market contact since the dot plot. NFP is released one day early. June brought the Warsh shock, Iran deal, and sharp energy price drop. This week’s data will show how markets digested these three developments. 📅 Economic Calendar Wednesday – July 1 🇺🇸 16:30 TSI — Fed Chair Warsh, ECB Symposium (Portugal) Warsh’s first post-FOMC remarks. Markets will watch if he sustains the hawkish tone from the dot plot or signals that the Iran deal has improved the inflation outlook. One sentence can move the dollar and Treasury yields instantly. 🇺🇸 17:00 TSI — ISM Manufacturing PMI, June 2026 First business day of July. Manufacturing was in contraction (49.0) in May. This reading will show the first clear impact of lower energy costs from the Iran deal. The prices sub-index is especially important for Warsh’s rate-hike case. Thursday – July 2 🇺🇸 15:30 TSI — NFP, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings, June 2026 Normally released Friday; moved earlier due to July 4 holiday. Consensus: +172k. Jobless claims have been stable. Strong NFP with continued wage growth would support Warsh’s hawkish stance. Weak data would reinforce the “high inflation, slowing growth” narrative. Friday – July 3 🇺🇸 — US MARKETS CLOSED (July 4 Independence Day observed on Friday) ⚡ Crypto & Market Risks Warsh (Wed 16:30): The market’s current “Warsh will hike” pricing may continue or partially unwind. A dovish tone (e.g., noting the Iran deal lowered inflation expectations) could trigger sharp relief in risk assets. Hawkish comments would strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto. $BTC $XRP
June 29 – July 3, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TSI - UTC + 3)

🎯 Week’s Main Theme
A short, intense week: Markets close Thursday. Friday is a US holiday. Warsh speaks at the ECB symposium in Portugal — his first direct market contact since the dot plot. NFP is released one day early. June brought the Warsh shock, Iran deal, and sharp energy price drop. This week’s data will show how markets digested these three developments.

📅 Economic Calendar

Wednesday – July 1
🇺🇸 16:30 TSI — Fed Chair Warsh, ECB Symposium (Portugal)
Warsh’s first post-FOMC remarks. Markets will watch if he sustains the hawkish tone from the dot plot or signals that the Iran deal has improved the inflation outlook. One sentence can move the dollar and Treasury yields instantly.

🇺🇸 17:00 TSI — ISM Manufacturing PMI, June 2026

First business day of July. Manufacturing was in contraction (49.0) in May. This reading will show the first clear impact of lower energy costs from the Iran deal. The prices sub-index is especially important for Warsh’s rate-hike case.

Thursday – July 2
🇺🇸 15:30 TSI — NFP, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings, June 2026
Normally released Friday; moved earlier due to July 4 holiday. Consensus: +172k. Jobless claims have been stable. Strong NFP with continued wage growth would support Warsh’s hawkish stance. Weak data would reinforce the “high inflation, slowing growth” narrative.

Friday – July 3

🇺🇸 — US MARKETS CLOSED (July 4 Independence Day observed on Friday)

⚡ Crypto & Market Risks

Warsh (Wed 16:30): The market’s current “Warsh will hike” pricing may continue or partially unwind. A dovish tone (e.g., noting the Iran deal lowered inflation expectations) could trigger sharp relief in risk assets. Hawkish comments would strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto. $BTC $XRP
🔐 **CRYPTO REPORT — 26 June 2026** ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS Binance decided to suspend EU services after Greece rejected the MiCA proposal. Expectations strengthened that the Fed will keep rates at 3.50–3.75% in 2026 (78 out of 102 economists). Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $ 4B in outflows in Q2 2026. Next US–Iran talks are scheduled for 28–29 June. Trump stated that UAV attacks targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a ceasefire violation. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ₿ BITCOIN Bitcoin is seeking support around $60,000. Volume remains weak. Short-term buying pressure is limited. Over $10.8B in crypto options are nearing expiration. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📋 MARKET NEWS Overall risk appetite remains weak. Macro data and Fed expectations remain the main focus. ETF flows continue to show weakness. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — TOMORROW (27 JUNE 2026) No major unlocks. Total unlock volume is around $21M. No large cliff unlocks during the day. Small unlocks expected, with limited market impact. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK The 27 June unlock schedule is relatively light. Selling pressure is lower compared to previous days. Small unlocks may still create minor volatility due to low liquidity. $BTC holding above $60,000 remains critical for short-term direction.
🔐 **CRYPTO REPORT — 26 June 2026**

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🌐 TODAY’S KEY NEWS

Binance decided to suspend EU services after Greece rejected the MiCA proposal.
Expectations strengthened that the Fed will keep rates at 3.50–3.75% in 2026 (78 out of 102 economists).
Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $ 4B in outflows in Q2 2026.
Next US–Iran talks are scheduled for 28–29 June.
Trump stated that UAV attacks targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a ceasefire violation.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

₿ BITCOIN

Bitcoin is seeking support around $60,000.
Volume remains weak.
Short-term buying pressure is limited.
Over $10.8B in crypto options are nearing expiration.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📋 MARKET NEWS

Overall risk appetite remains weak.
Macro data and Fed expectations remain the main focus.
ETF flows continue to show weakness.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — TOMORROW (27 JUNE 2026)

No major unlocks.
Total unlock volume is around $21M.
No large cliff unlocks during the day.
Small unlocks expected, with limited market impact.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔭 OUTLOOK

The 27 June unlock schedule is relatively light.
Selling pressure is lower compared to previous days.
Small unlocks may still create minor volatility due to low liquidity.
$BTC holding above $60,000 remains critical for short-term direction.
·
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Alcista
#Ripple I thought it would first go up and then down, a move towards the 1.00 level and then extending to 0.80, but it couldn't make the upward move and was immediately pushed down. My view is that there will be another upward reaction in all cryptocurrencies, to liquidate all short positions. A reaction up to the 1.28 level is possible. $XRP
#Ripple I thought it would first go up and then down, a move towards the 1.00 level and then extending to 0.80, but it couldn't make the upward move and was immediately pushed down. My view is that there will be another upward reaction in all cryptocurrencies, to liquidate all short positions. A reaction up to the 1.28 level is possible. $XRP
For-Exx Kripto
·
--
Alcista
$XRP tested 1.29 yesterday and was then pushed back down to 1.21, but I think it will re-enter the 1.28-1.52 range it has been fluctuating in for the past 4 months...
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