The setup right now: we'd expect a small push upward after the July monthly open, creating a wick on the top of the monthly candle, followed by more downside. $BTC
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The Japanese yen just hit its weakest level since 1986, and Japan is signaling it's ready to intervene.
Why should crypto care? A lot of institutions use the yen carry trade (borrow cheap yen → buy stocks & crypto).
If Japan steps in and the yen spikes: 🟢 Best case: just a volatility spike. 🟡 Medium: healthy pullback in BTC & equities. 🔴 Worst case: carry trade unwind → liquidity drains → broad sell-off across global markets and crypto.
Not bearish yet, but definitely a macro event worth watching this week.
I still expect BTC to keep dropping toward the $53k–$55k range, likely until June 29.
On the geopolitical side, Iran reportedly attacked a Singapore-linked oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. Right now I'm waiting to see how the U.S. responds. If the U.S. comes out with a more aggressive statement, that could be another catalyst to push the market lower.
June is one of the most important months for institutions. This is when they rebalance portfolios, lock in profits, and do window dressing before the quarter ends. That's exactly why I projected BTC would correct around the 20th of June. Diminishing ETF outflows could be the first sign that Bitcoin is near it's bottom
Here's why July looks more bullish:
-Quarter-end selling is almost over, meaning institutional rebalancing and profit-taking should soon fade.
-Most hawkish Fed expectations are already priced in, limiting downside.
-Stablecoin liquidity remains high, leaving plenty of capital ready to rotate back into BTC.